sk7326

If there is a reason to pause with Peavy it is that his FIP has slipped the last couple of years to something closer to "average" than "quite good". But he handled 219 innings last year and his strikeout rate is still pretty good - so the stuff still seems to be pretty good. The homeruns seem to be the biggest contributor to his slippage. He is a fly ball pitcher to begin with, but this year an unusually high number of them have left the yard ... how much of that is actual decline vs a spat of bad luck is the question. We know New Comiskey/Whatever they call it is a homerun friendly park (10th in park factors per mlb.com) compared to Fenway. BTW: Fenway is a doubles paradise -not a homerun one

One thing to note here btw is that a bunch of good outings can offset even a bunch of bad ones - just because a team is FAR more likely to win a game giving up 6 runs than they are likely to lose a game where they give up 2. All runs are not precisely created equal.

But can our 5-man rotiation churn out 5 solid starts over a turn consistently? With Peavy, by all means yes. Heck, with Workman they've been doing it the last month. Yeah, this move doesn't turn them into Tampa Bay - but looking at how close those games were, they didn't have to. No soft spots in the rotation now - whether or not Buchholz comes back to his pre injury form.

Look at it this way - The Sox kicked the tires on a true ace. But the price was absurd (blue chip prospects AND eating salary, total non starter). So you can't find a #1 - focus now is getting basically five #3 starters ... which Peavy gets them to (and possibly better than that). This is a good hedge against Buchholz' future. While the Sox are probably not going to put together a stretch like the Rays starters have (who has? a lot of unsustainable performance there), Lester-Lackey-Peavy-Dempster-Doubront is a rotation without a real soft spot, and with this lineup plenty capable of churning out professional start after professional start.

At this point, I think the Phillies have to call Boston and ask for their best offer. If Boegarts was the starting point - no way. I don't blame Philly for asking but this is not 25 year old former WS MVP Josh Beckett we are talking about, though Lee is a no doubt elite starter today. Cherington did a nice job turning 2 abnormally good months of Jose Iglesias and a few guys who were not among our high impact prospects into a solid #3 starter with a good contract and a reliever with some upside. (I will be curious to see the writeups about the prospects going - but I doubt they are anything we will lose sleep over) $14.5M sounds like a lot of money and obviously it is by real world standards - but considering the price of starting pitching in the FA market, Peavy's deal now is pretty reasonable.

Sox sold high on Iglesias. He has NEVER done what he did in April-May at any level. He had a BABIP of nearly .500 - a lot of balls he hit found holes at a rate which you can't expect. The bet is that he will turn back into a fringe major league pumpkin - which describes his July by the way. Drew has done a solid job when healthy - good defense, doesn't make enough contact but is far more dangerous than Iglesias. The 3B situation is far more interesting. I'd go with Boegarts but Middlebrooks is a safer bet for the rest of the year.

If Iglesias is the headliner, this is a great deal - but let's learn more. And yes, my vote is Boegarts as the infield replacement.

I don't think it's necessarily prospect rankings in an org ... it's about getting probability as well as upside. You deal a middle reliever, you can live with a compromise on probability. Some dude with tools or a live arm or great raw power but requires a lot of projection and development. Teams want guys close to the bigs - that is what is holding this stuff back. Even in the Red Sox case - aside from Boegarts and Bradley, the top guys are not necessarily 2014 ready ones.

I can see why Stanton is an attractive "guy I'd trade Boegarts for". But despite all that power, a blue chip SS is more valuable than a blue chip corner OF in general. It's not an obvious yes - Kershaw, Trout, that's a different deal entirely. Boegarts for Kershaw makes sense - heck Boegarts and Barnes does. But Boegarts for Lee absolutely not. The Red Sox have the ability to take his money AND the prospects to offer. But the Phillies can't have the best of both.

I think it depends - that part of the contract is rewritten. I tend not to think of them as no-trade so much as no-trade-for-free.

We lost a couple of heartbreakers to Tampa ... we can compete with them already. Shoring up righty bats could do just as much.

I doubt it will - different levels of discussion. If there is a panic, it'd be to move on Bud Norris. Lee is a completely different timber, and as much a move for 2014. It would be risky, and no one pitcher can increase world series odds that much - but Lee is an elite starter. Peavy has no impact on this. Also, the Red Sox pitching has been solid - they can afford to come out of this empty handed.

FWIW, https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/362284153036750848

If Bradley were not a CF, he'd be fine for this discussion (Lee) ... just not sure what the endgame is other than bringing a 30-year old Ells back if Bradley is gone.

Wilson had a knack for holding 2 run leads with the bases empty ...

Tough ask. Not because it's not fair (Bradley is reasonable), but because CFs in general are hard to find and can hurt future positioning (read: Ellsbury for too much $$ or Victorino faking it)

I suspect Norris is a guy whose price could tumble by tomorrow. Houston has one of the best scouting guys running their shop (Jeff Luhnow, former Cardinals assistant GM) - they are committed to trading anything not nailed down. Look at the Veras move - took an average reliever, gave him a coat of "proven closer" polish and dealt him to Detroit for a couple of prospects with some upside. Norris is not going to be around by the time they are good again, I expect that he could be had for a non-big 4 prospect (Bradley, Cecchini, Owens, Boegarts). I don't think Boegarts is in Lee talks - Phillies have to know this, and if Boegarts was a deal breaker there would be no rumors. I think any of the other Big 4 prospects and certainly the upper-middle class level guys (Webster, Middlebrooks, Merrero, Britton) are all discussion-worthy. Personally my "prospect order" as far as guys I don't want to deal is: Bradley (some modest major league performance already, hard to find CFs), Cecchini, Owens (always risk with any below AA pitcher that position players don't have) and then everybody else. Also, if I am dealing one of these guys in a package, I'd like Philly to - if they won't pick up salary - at least part with a prospect that the team can dream on (you know, not a Top 100 guy maybe but a guy with something that can project - like Owens basically before the blossomng).

Rosenthal piece advising Boegarts for Lee comparing it to HanRam for Beckett is fairly silly. Beckett was ten years younger. Lee's deal is much more questionable, even if you don't question that he will keep adding value (and I think he will). Personally IF Cecchini OR (not and) Owens were being discussed, I'd at least not hang up. Cecchini has a great future, but Lee is the sort of blue chipper that would make dealing him at least arguably worth it. Owens just has that risk that comes with ANY prospect pitcher who's not at AA yet - it's a gamble to let him go, it's a gamble to bet on his major league potential. Boegarts is clearly untouchable - a guy who is conquering AAA as a 20 year old is (barring injury) almost a sure thing as a quality big and perhaps much more. Yes prospects are all "risky", but like in high school, the guys who you expect huge things from are not kids who crush JV, but the 14 year old who can hang on the varsity. That is Boegarts, these guys rarely miss. Also, I consider him the Sox' best option for a righty bat down the stretch.

The callups are where it becomes interesting. The corner options on the trade market are not improvements over what they have (a non-healthy Aramis Ramirez isn't, and Michael Young surely isn't). If Napoli could play any position other than 1st (and clearly they are committed to him not pretending to catch), that could open some opportunities. Middlebrooks is the safe option here - he struggled earlier in the season but he has shown he can at least hit a big league mistake. The real question is whether the team is ready to give Boegarts the wheel for the stretch run - how thoroughly impressive he has been in AA/AAA at his age is a serious eye opener - he might be a .240 hitter the rest of this season at the big league level, but with his batting eye he will get on base enough to be at least as effective as Snyder or Holt, with a lot more upside.

Wainwright was their closer in 2006. Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan were playoff heroes!

This is baseball, a sport where an 83-79 team won a world series with a Red Sox castoff as MVP. IF this were a sport like football or basketball the "we'd have no chance" line resonates much more. Heck, the "better team" has lost the last three World Series and 5 of the last 6.

Well - 2007 his form (and health maybe) slipped a ton. Remember he was not on the playoff roster when we beat the Guardians. 2008 won the Cy Young, but then the Guardians as a team went off a cliff. And Grady Sizemore's body fell apart. By 2009 the Guardians were rebuilding and shipped him to the Phillies. He was a key cog in their getting to the WS before losing to that Yankee juggernaut. 2010 dealt to Seattle to make room for Roy Halladay 2011 Seattle stunk, dealt him to Texas, they dominated Yankees then he struggled a little in WS 2012 Signed with Phillies as a FA So realistically he has been moved a lot, but he has also been in a lot of rebuilding situations where he became a team's best trade asset (frankly, like now).

That NESN money ought to go somewhere. If the prospect price is not too bad - taking them both makes sense. Papelbon is a "proven closer" which is a useless position but one the sport has decided to live with. He has been effective this season, just a luxury position. Lee is old, but a really good bet to hold his performance - easy delivery, doesn't waste motion.

Indeed - him being a SS vs a 3B is the difference in being a Top 3 prospect or not. That said he might get too big to field the SS position, just physical development. If he can be adequate at SS he could be a SS. I advocate for 3B if they bring him up THIS season - it is where the job opening is. Could easily see Middlebrooks getting squeezed out - the approach is a problem without the absurd contact rates that others of that ilk have.

Well coaching has not been an issue so much as health. Sox pitching coaches have been good except for last year when the coaching staff was run by a bozo. Farrell hired a lower profile name than was out there probably because he could help set the program on that side of the ball. Farrell/Nieves have shown some promise in undoing some of Lester's May-June issues as well as helping Doubront harness his wildness (somewhat).