sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Covert excellent move for San Diego. Kennedy extreme fly ball pitcher - could be serious Petco beneficiary, enough to put some shine on him and make him a true asset again.
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This is all fair, although to win the world series you only need 3 good weeks of baseball ...
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definitely the former ... latter feels like stuff for talk radio.
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Pap can't come into really leveraged situations like that - or at least he did not show that ability since 2008.
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Holt gets the callup for now - per Alex Speier, that he could backup 2B was the factor for him winning out ... for now.
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He DID never hit ... and his range dipped. A .299 OBP undoes almost all of the benefit closing your eyes and hitting a ball over the fence occasionally provides.
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Of all of them Renteria was the overreaction - had an awful year, but was a clear outlier from career norms - did fine after leaving until career took gentle slide down
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If you are worried about 1) Uehara's durability or 2) wasting a guy as good as Uehara on pure 9th inning duty ... then having Papelbon for a song is worth investigating. But as far as who the better pitcher is - it's not really a contest. Papelbon has been living off of reputation since 2008.
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I think there is little chance of it being Young unless it is as a straight dump for cash and PTBNL. Would be disappointed if it were anything else. That they did not immediately promote Middlebrooks tells me they are very seriously considering whether Boegarts could do this a la Machado last season. Machado was also a SS by trade, who was holding his own at a crazy young age in high minors.
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Difference was with Pedroia the July was the exception for what his track record indicates. With Iglesias, the good times were the notable exception. I am bearish on whether Iglesias really can hit or not - but Detroit can afford to carry him as an improvement over nothing at SS.
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One more year at $14.5M. If you look at what pitchers got this past offseason (Dempster - who is a terrific value relatively, Edwin Jackson et al), and how much money every team is rolling in (the Marlins cashing in those $50M revenue sharing checks before having to sell a seat) - that salary is not NEARLY as absurd as it seems. I mean the 2014/15 offseason that is right in line with what you'll be seeing Lester's suitors bidding.
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Well, Drew has been solid when he has played. Glove has been very good - not Iglesias level, but absolutely a plus. At the plate, he has that Mark Bellhorn thing going - where he strikes out so often that the good things he does get offset. His approach at the plate, his ability to square the ball up for hard contact - is way above what Iglesias can offer (and that's how he has been able to hang a .308 OBP despite his issues making contact). By modern SS standards, he has been pretty good and worth the contract more or less.
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Makes sense. Amaro has too much invested in this aging roster to tear it apart, even if that is the smart move. I do think he had to show he is listening on Lee so his fans didn't think he was a complete idiot.
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Just on the IP level, he is somewhat better. Iggy has upside as a good SS - and considering the Peralta Biogenesis business, they needed a reasonable starter. Iggy has upside of an Elvis Andrus level SS (not the 2013 terrible version of him granted) if he can get on base at the rate he has this season overall. But it runs so counter to the evidence he has provided since the Sox signed him that it is hard to blame Cherington (or anybody else) from thinking he will turn back into the guy he always has been in the batter's box. If Iglesias hangs a .250/.300/.300, he is playable with his glove. Not a star, but a SS who can start without uncontrollable fits of laughter. But his career body of work aside from 2 months, makes this a 50/50 bet at best.
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Well, outliers is not necessarily a pure tit for tat sort of thing. You are looking at the appearances that DO NOT trend with the rest of his season. If you plot his ERA on an outing by outing list for instance, one set of histogram buckets might be: ERA 0.00 to 1.50: 5 starts (5/13 = 38.5%) ERA 1.50 to 3.00: 2 starts (2/13 = 15.4%) ERA 3.00 to 4.50: 1 start (1/13 = 7.7%) ERA 4.50 to 6.00: 2 starts (2/13 = 15.4%) ERA 6.00 to 7.50: 0 starts ERA 9.00 to 10.5: 1 start (1/13 = 7.7%) ERA 10.5 to 12: 0 starts ERA 12.00 to 13.50: 1 start ERA 22.5 to 24.00: 1 start Plotting a histogram like this shows the bad starts are clearly the outliers, much more than the good ones - where the clustering is taking place. Taking one or more of them out of the analysis is totally reasonable, but generally you don't want to unless there really are some sort of temporary circumstance. (an injury, an inside the park homerun, Coors Field, whatever)
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OK, so we had: Drew-Iglesias-Snyder as the SS-3B combo. After trade, Workman to pen, Peavy to rotation ... some odd man out of the bullpen ... That leaves: Middlebrooks/Boegarts, Drew, Holt/Snyder. I'd think if it's Middlebrooks, Holt as a platoon partner makes some sense. If it's Boegarts, Snyder makes sense so Boegarts can spell Drew at SS occasionally.
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If there is a reason to pause with Peavy it is that his FIP has slipped the last couple of years to something closer to "average" than "quite good". But he handled 219 innings last year and his strikeout rate is still pretty good - so the stuff still seems to be pretty good. The homeruns seem to be the biggest contributor to his slippage. He is a fly ball pitcher to begin with, but this year an unusually high number of them have left the yard ... how much of that is actual decline vs a spat of bad luck is the question. We know New Comiskey/Whatever they call it is a homerun friendly park (10th in park factors per mlb.com) compared to Fenway. BTW: Fenway is a doubles paradise -not a homerun one
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One thing to note here btw is that a bunch of good outings can offset even a bunch of bad ones - just because a team is FAR more likely to win a game giving up 6 runs than they are likely to lose a game where they give up 2. All runs are not precisely created equal.
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But can our 5-man rotiation churn out 5 solid starts over a turn consistently? With Peavy, by all means yes. Heck, with Workman they've been doing it the last month. Yeah, this move doesn't turn them into Tampa Bay - but looking at how close those games were, they didn't have to. No soft spots in the rotation now - whether or not Buchholz comes back to his pre injury form.
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Look at it this way - The Sox kicked the tires on a true ace. But the price was absurd (blue chip prospects AND eating salary, total non starter). So you can't find a #1 - focus now is getting basically five #3 starters ... which Peavy gets them to (and possibly better than that). This is a good hedge against Buchholz' future. While the Sox are probably not going to put together a stretch like the Rays starters have (who has? a lot of unsustainable performance there), Lester-Lackey-Peavy-Dempster-Doubront is a rotation without a real soft spot, and with this lineup plenty capable of churning out professional start after professional start.
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At this point, I think the Phillies have to call Boston and ask for their best offer. If Boegarts was the starting point - no way. I don't blame Philly for asking but this is not 25 year old former WS MVP Josh Beckett we are talking about, though Lee is a no doubt elite starter today. Cherington did a nice job turning 2 abnormally good months of Jose Iglesias and a few guys who were not among our high impact prospects into a solid #3 starter with a good contract and a reliever with some upside. (I will be curious to see the writeups about the prospects going - but I doubt they are anything we will lose sleep over) $14.5M sounds like a lot of money and obviously it is by real world standards - but considering the price of starting pitching in the FA market, Peavy's deal now is pretty reasonable.
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Sox sold high on Iglesias. He has NEVER done what he did in April-May at any level. He had a BABIP of nearly .500 - a lot of balls he hit found holes at a rate which you can't expect. The bet is that he will turn back into a fringe major league pumpkin - which describes his July by the way. Drew has done a solid job when healthy - good defense, doesn't make enough contact but is far more dangerous than Iglesias. The 3B situation is far more interesting. I'd go with Boegarts but Middlebrooks is a safer bet for the rest of the year.
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If Iglesias is the headliner, this is a great deal - but let's learn more. And yes, my vote is Boegarts as the infield replacement.
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I don't think it's necessarily prospect rankings in an org ... it's about getting probability as well as upside. You deal a middle reliever, you can live with a compromise on probability. Some dude with tools or a live arm or great raw power but requires a lot of projection and development. Teams want guys close to the bigs - that is what is holding this stuff back. Even in the Red Sox case - aside from Boegarts and Bradley, the top guys are not necessarily 2014 ready ones.
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I can see why Stanton is an attractive "guy I'd trade Boegarts for". But despite all that power, a blue chip SS is more valuable than a blue chip corner OF in general. It's not an obvious yes - Kershaw, Trout, that's a different deal entirely. Boegarts for Kershaw makes sense - heck Boegarts and Barnes does. But Boegarts for Lee absolutely not. The Red Sox have the ability to take his money AND the prospects to offer. But the Phillies can't have the best of both.