sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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BTW: his twitter feed is amazing. The dude is like 250 years old and he churns out the volume - and is there a topic he won't blather about?
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Rays had a stretch of pitching where the starting staff collectively performed like 1999 Pedro. That is not something you can bet on. Tonight though was a bit of a clinic on dealing with really good pitching. Felix was very good, but we competed - had good at bats, got the pitch count up. Did not have much to show for it, but it did get us into the bullpen - and every second not facing Felix was a chance to claw back.
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Without a doubt especially on a dollar for dollar level. The durability concern with Uehara is there (why he's not paid more) but otherwise ... tonight was pretty special. Wright probably gets squeezed by Peavy's arrival - Workman becomes the "multi-inning reliever" most likely. But he has shown some value.
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We were due ... after earlier a run scored after a blown strike 3 call off of Dempster ... Gomes REALLY lucky to have another chance and cashed it in
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Drew evokes memories of Mark Bellhorn (better defensively). Has been fairly effective at SS, but obscured by the sheer volume of strikeouts.
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Holt was brought up because he can back up SS/2B absolutely. Honestly when they did not promote Middlebrooks immediately - the sign to me is the internal discussion is on Boegarts. They can fake 3B enough for now - but AAA is not a prospect level anymore. It is a big league taxi squad - they would not have promoted Boegarts to this level if there were not serious big league thoughts about him.
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Michael Young was not urgent before the deadline because he could come to them anyway. Decent chance he'll be blocked, but the Phillies might be happy to unload him - enough to spook teams from claiming willy nilly.
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He would not have given up a starting SS for a rental. One additional year of control with a vesting option that will not kick in at what is basically the going rate for a guy his caliber? That makes Iggy a fair price.
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The Peavy move is leverage either way. Red Sox rotation is good enough now with or without Buchholz. Maybe not 69 Orioles or nothin, but good enough to crank out competitive start after competitive start. If you step back and see, it's been almost three weeks since a starter REALLY did not perform.
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Covert excellent move for San Diego. Kennedy extreme fly ball pitcher - could be serious Petco beneficiary, enough to put some shine on him and make him a true asset again.
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This is all fair, although to win the world series you only need 3 good weeks of baseball ...
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definitely the former ... latter feels like stuff for talk radio.
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Pap can't come into really leveraged situations like that - or at least he did not show that ability since 2008.
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Holt gets the callup for now - per Alex Speier, that he could backup 2B was the factor for him winning out ... for now.
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He DID never hit ... and his range dipped. A .299 OBP undoes almost all of the benefit closing your eyes and hitting a ball over the fence occasionally provides.
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Of all of them Renteria was the overreaction - had an awful year, but was a clear outlier from career norms - did fine after leaving until career took gentle slide down
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If you are worried about 1) Uehara's durability or 2) wasting a guy as good as Uehara on pure 9th inning duty ... then having Papelbon for a song is worth investigating. But as far as who the better pitcher is - it's not really a contest. Papelbon has been living off of reputation since 2008.
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I think there is little chance of it being Young unless it is as a straight dump for cash and PTBNL. Would be disappointed if it were anything else. That they did not immediately promote Middlebrooks tells me they are very seriously considering whether Boegarts could do this a la Machado last season. Machado was also a SS by trade, who was holding his own at a crazy young age in high minors.
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Difference was with Pedroia the July was the exception for what his track record indicates. With Iglesias, the good times were the notable exception. I am bearish on whether Iglesias really can hit or not - but Detroit can afford to carry him as an improvement over nothing at SS.
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One more year at $14.5M. If you look at what pitchers got this past offseason (Dempster - who is a terrific value relatively, Edwin Jackson et al), and how much money every team is rolling in (the Marlins cashing in those $50M revenue sharing checks before having to sell a seat) - that salary is not NEARLY as absurd as it seems. I mean the 2014/15 offseason that is right in line with what you'll be seeing Lester's suitors bidding.
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Well, Drew has been solid when he has played. Glove has been very good - not Iglesias level, but absolutely a plus. At the plate, he has that Mark Bellhorn thing going - where he strikes out so often that the good things he does get offset. His approach at the plate, his ability to square the ball up for hard contact - is way above what Iglesias can offer (and that's how he has been able to hang a .308 OBP despite his issues making contact). By modern SS standards, he has been pretty good and worth the contract more or less.
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Makes sense. Amaro has too much invested in this aging roster to tear it apart, even if that is the smart move. I do think he had to show he is listening on Lee so his fans didn't think he was a complete idiot.
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Just on the IP level, he is somewhat better. Iggy has upside as a good SS - and considering the Peralta Biogenesis business, they needed a reasonable starter. Iggy has upside of an Elvis Andrus level SS (not the 2013 terrible version of him granted) if he can get on base at the rate he has this season overall. But it runs so counter to the evidence he has provided since the Sox signed him that it is hard to blame Cherington (or anybody else) from thinking he will turn back into the guy he always has been in the batter's box. If Iglesias hangs a .250/.300/.300, he is playable with his glove. Not a star, but a SS who can start without uncontrollable fits of laughter. But his career body of work aside from 2 months, makes this a 50/50 bet at best.
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Well, outliers is not necessarily a pure tit for tat sort of thing. You are looking at the appearances that DO NOT trend with the rest of his season. If you plot his ERA on an outing by outing list for instance, one set of histogram buckets might be: ERA 0.00 to 1.50: 5 starts (5/13 = 38.5%) ERA 1.50 to 3.00: 2 starts (2/13 = 15.4%) ERA 3.00 to 4.50: 1 start (1/13 = 7.7%) ERA 4.50 to 6.00: 2 starts (2/13 = 15.4%) ERA 6.00 to 7.50: 0 starts ERA 9.00 to 10.5: 1 start (1/13 = 7.7%) ERA 10.5 to 12: 0 starts ERA 12.00 to 13.50: 1 start ERA 22.5 to 24.00: 1 start Plotting a histogram like this shows the bad starts are clearly the outliers, much more than the good ones - where the clustering is taking place. Taking one or more of them out of the analysis is totally reasonable, but generally you don't want to unless there really are some sort of temporary circumstance. (an injury, an inside the park homerun, Coors Field, whatever)
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OK, so we had: Drew-Iglesias-Snyder as the SS-3B combo. After trade, Workman to pen, Peavy to rotation ... some odd man out of the bullpen ... That leaves: Middlebrooks/Boegarts, Drew, Holt/Snyder. I'd think if it's Middlebrooks, Holt as a platoon partner makes some sense. If it's Boegarts, Snyder makes sense so Boegarts can spell Drew at SS occasionally.