sk7326

Brain fart by their 1B ... we'll take it

I give Dempster credit - i suspect he is hurt some and the team is not discussing it. Hopefully the splitter is on today. Frankly, hope his command is on - that is his whole thing.

Postseason eligibility is a non-issue. The Red Sox will be able to replace Hanrahan, Miller and Bailey on the postseason roster with anybody who is in the organization as of August 31 (think of it as the K-Rod rule). Boegarts can be snuck onto the roster regardless of when he gets called up.

I would consider Ellsbury - I just think the years will be too rich for his age, especially if there are no team options. Bradley has more long term upside - although he probably won't put up a "2nd best player in the AL" sort of season. And just because THIS team can play an outfield without a ton of pop does not mean it's a good idea. Victorino has been good - but all of his value as a right fielder is from defense. If he loses a step (possible at his age) he becomes hard to play there.

Also 2 years younger than Ellsbury going on the market - Braves were buying 2 more years of peak/upside

Nobody is contending he is going to win the MVP - but will he crack the Top 10. Two years ago he was 2nd and deserved more consideration for #1 ... he is having a top 10 season again, although more like #6-12 than #2.

Counting stats certainly are a big deal. But so is having a great season on a contender. The Red Sox have had a pretty balanced group - Ellsbury has had the best season of the group (though Pedroia and Ortiz have their cases and not at all bad choices). He will pull votes on that basis. But since you asked. Trout and Cabrera are far and away the best resumes - top 2 in fWAR, close this year instead of the rout it was last year, but definitely ahead of the pack. Chris Davis and Evan Longoria will be way up there too. So there are 4 names. While there are a lot of pitchers who deserve consideration, we know there is a severe anti-pitcher writers bias. As such, probably only Max Scherzer and his pitcher wins will get serious MVP consideration. After that, it gets REALLY cloudy: Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre, Papi, Ellsbury, Pedroia, King Felix, Jason Kipnis, Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, Adam Jones ... could throw a blanket over all of them. Ellsbury's case is as good as any of them. He lacks the power numbers, but he is not going to put up slap hitter stats either - extra base hits is fine. Yes, defense and baserunning are not so valued by old fogey voters - but when you put up an eye popping counting statistic like his stolen base numbers, that gets noticed.

Truth is somewhere in between - Bumgarner has not handled the workload of a #1 yet. Has not pitched more than 8 this season - lot of NL pitchers have piled up significantly more innings (Wainwright and Kershaw by about 30) ... would take a lot to pry him loose, but not impossible. Either way the Giants hang up for the reasons you cite. The Giants need bats! Also, quality starting pitching is the hardest thing in the world to acquire, so when you develop one of your own he is a core guy.

Oh he IS untouchable - but that's why you pick one of the league's best players (pitcher or otherwise) as a target for him. 28 next year, incredibly durable - great fundamentals (low effort delivery etc) - and you'll be buying a lot of peak value. And Seattle has a case for dumping him. San Francisco has far less of a case for moving Bumgarner - theya re not really rebuilding. They'd trade Lincecum for a handful of magic beans, but that is a totally different story.

Well, first - that list is not that bad. If you trade Bradley straight up - if we want to go down this road - you are probably hoping for a full-season horse, #3/#4 type. That is, not a guy who is any sort of ace, but whose value lies in being able to crank out 30 average-above average starts a season. (basically - Jon Lester) As far as free agency goes - the Sox will take a long hard look at James Shields for sure. He is not a true ace, but definitely high quality and has a history in the division. There are also a lot of other guys (Jorge De La Rosa, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson) who have various issues but are very much worth kicking the tires on for Dempster-level money. For the trade for Bumgarner - he would require more. He is cheap, under control, young, good and the Giants have championship dreams - even if they did not fulfill them this season - and cash. (typical Giants season - if their pitching is good enough to squeeze their putrid offense into October they become very dangerous, otherwise you get a season like this) If you are going to trade for a pitcher - might as well aim much higher - like King Felix, and for a guy like THAT you start discussing Boegarts.

I believe September callups don't affect that - but I am not 100%. I have been focused on the postseason eligibility thing - where Boegarts is covered as well. I think they are waiting for an opportunistic time to bring him up, where they can break him in a little bit (as much as the Nation allows that at all).

Given the way baseball salaries inflate - $14M a year for Pedroia in 6 years will be value as long has he is still a 2-3 win sort of player. Ellsbury has been a better all around player than Pedroia this year - that much is true. (gets on base a bit less, but hitting for more power, stealing bases for what its worth, defense is excellent also at a premium position) But Pedroia produced more over his last contract - more track record - and he got re-upped for much more favorable price. He will be able to stay at 2B for the duration of that contract most likely (that is just my own opinion of course) - Ellsbury has to count on his speed holding up or else he has to move to LF or RF, where his power goes from "pretty good" to "not good enough".

Holt is here for position flexibility. If a team is committed to having an 11 man pitching staff, the bench players have to be able to cover more. Pedroia has no backup without Holt here - so he stays. Snyder being voted off the island on the other hand is only a matter of time.

Well the last 2 seasons also coincided with a focus on a really hard position he is probably no good at. This sort of happened with Jesus Montero in Seattle when you consider how he smashed in the minors to how poorly his big league career has gone. It does make you wonder if you just told a guy like that "just focus on hitting - we'll work around it", that it would improve things. I wonder if Lavarnway is just a guy who can't handle both jobs at the same time (really the last 2 seasons might be hinting at that more than anything)?

Holt's big league roster spot makes more sense than Snyder's. Holt is the only bench guy they have who can play 2B. (or for that matter SS, though a Boegarts promotion fixes that) I think the decision is really Snyder vs Boegarts/Middlebrooks

Napoli has been ok at 1B. Nothing special, but not bad. Helps that he takes a ton of pitches and draws a lot of walks so the cold stretches are still salvageable. I like the thought on Lavarnway. In his 2011 callup, when he was DHing, he showed that there was some real power there. But clearly he has had trouble hitting and receiving at the same time. Maybe he tried so hard to become an adequate catcher that he let his hit tool (which is really what will let him afford his house payments) go stale. He and Carp could make a good platoon at the position. Middlebrooks could make sense too - although his bat becomes even weaker at 1B where the "replacement level" is a bit higher. An year+option extension for Napoli is not the worst thing in the world, especially if they can fix their production at 3B.

I am. The AL MVP race is really between Trout and Cabrera again (closer this year than last although Trout has a better chance of actually being voted) with Chris Davis attracting those who genuflect at the HR-RBI altar. Ellsbury has been one of the best dozen or so players in the American League this year. Each voter has to fill out 10 names in the MVP ballot - he absolutely deserves to be named on a ballot that size. Might only end up something like 9th or 10th in the voting - but his season has absolutely justified that level of consideration.

I suspect the fans are actually relatively ok with moving to Jackie Bradley who has flashed promise and a full 7 years younger. I like Ellsbury and can argue that if he could churn out 5 seasons like this - that is an $18-20M a year guy easily. But heading into his age 30-35 years, where he might have to move to an outfield corner, I am not sure the bat will play up enough to justify that sort of salary.

I think it's going to be Boegarts (small chance Middlebrooks) soon enough. I think the Red Sox if they call up Boegarts, it will either be as a September call-up (and he'd be playoff eligible too due to the season ending injuries our relievers have suffered) or they might have him meet them in Kansas City. No fanfare, almost no hype - just drop him in the middle of a road trip without a ton of buzz and give him some low distraction time to break in.

Not with a 30 year old without a track record of durability. But he has been the Red Sox best position player this year - and he should get some MVP consideration (it's a two man race for the award, but Ellsbury should on some ballots). He has done all that he can to make himself a good case - and I think there is a decent chance SOMEBODY will offer him that "mistake" level of contract.

Now what is true is that Shane's value will fall through the floor if his legs (and glove) go. He just is not a good enough hitter to be a reasonable RF without his wonderful defense (CF he could fake). But that might not be something that the Sox have to worry about until his contract is over.

Has been excellent - also a good demonstration as to how silly it is to trawl for bullpen arms and pay $3M for the Jesse Crains of the world ... instead just bring up the guys with actual cheap upside like Britton or De La Rosa, even if these are just apprenticeships before competing for a rotation position. Obviously Britton has some regression etc etc, but he clearly has quality stuff, better than most of the guys in the trade market.

The deal could look bad in a year or so. But a 3 win player is worth a solid price. Defense has been excellent, offense has been ok, and the team has been excellent when he has been able to play. OPS is fun to ruminate over, but he is getting on base at a non-awful rate and has made up for it with the rest of the baseball skills. Ellsbury has been their best position player to date (and probably should appear on some MVP ballots - seeing as MVP ballots are 10-deep), so lots of guys look bad there, and Victorino will have a hard time justifying playing a corner if his glove fades much. But fortunately a short-ish commitment.

Protecting players - that's fine. Tough job for Lavarnway - although he also failed robustly. Wright's stuff had movement - clearly too much for the catcher to handle. That Lavarnway has proven unable to really hit like the monstah he showed in 2011 is tough - hard to see a real big league regular there.

I have not done any real studying - but I do wonder whether a large win "bump" (like if the Royals could get to 83 wins or more) would affect their bottom line enough that the push has some value to them. I don't know. Tells you about the business - the KC owner wants a return on this rebuilding, so his minions have to get him one.