sk7326

Well, first - that list is not that bad. If you trade Bradley straight up - if we want to go down this road - you are probably hoping for a full-season horse, #3/#4 type. That is, not a guy who is any sort of ace, but whose value lies in being able to crank out 30 average-above average starts a season. (basically - Jon Lester) As far as free agency goes - the Sox will take a long hard look at James Shields for sure. He is not a true ace, but definitely high quality and has a history in the division. There are also a lot of other guys (Jorge De La Rosa, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson) who have various issues but are very much worth kicking the tires on for Dempster-level money. For the trade for Bumgarner - he would require more. He is cheap, under control, young, good and the Giants have championship dreams - even if they did not fulfill them this season - and cash. (typical Giants season - if their pitching is good enough to squeeze their putrid offense into October they become very dangerous, otherwise you get a season like this) If you are going to trade for a pitcher - might as well aim much higher - like King Felix, and for a guy like THAT you start discussing Boegarts.

I believe September callups don't affect that - but I am not 100%. I have been focused on the postseason eligibility thing - where Boegarts is covered as well. I think they are waiting for an opportunistic time to bring him up, where they can break him in a little bit (as much as the Nation allows that at all).

Given the way baseball salaries inflate - $14M a year for Pedroia in 6 years will be value as long has he is still a 2-3 win sort of player. Ellsbury has been a better all around player than Pedroia this year - that much is true. (gets on base a bit less, but hitting for more power, stealing bases for what its worth, defense is excellent also at a premium position) But Pedroia produced more over his last contract - more track record - and he got re-upped for much more favorable price. He will be able to stay at 2B for the duration of that contract most likely (that is just my own opinion of course) - Ellsbury has to count on his speed holding up or else he has to move to LF or RF, where his power goes from "pretty good" to "not good enough".

Holt is here for position flexibility. If a team is committed to having an 11 man pitching staff, the bench players have to be able to cover more. Pedroia has no backup without Holt here - so he stays. Snyder being voted off the island on the other hand is only a matter of time.

Well the last 2 seasons also coincided with a focus on a really hard position he is probably no good at. This sort of happened with Jesus Montero in Seattle when you consider how he smashed in the minors to how poorly his big league career has gone. It does make you wonder if you just told a guy like that "just focus on hitting - we'll work around it", that it would improve things. I wonder if Lavarnway is just a guy who can't handle both jobs at the same time (really the last 2 seasons might be hinting at that more than anything)?

Holt's big league roster spot makes more sense than Snyder's. Holt is the only bench guy they have who can play 2B. (or for that matter SS, though a Boegarts promotion fixes that) I think the decision is really Snyder vs Boegarts/Middlebrooks

Napoli has been ok at 1B. Nothing special, but not bad. Helps that he takes a ton of pitches and draws a lot of walks so the cold stretches are still salvageable. I like the thought on Lavarnway. In his 2011 callup, when he was DHing, he showed that there was some real power there. But clearly he has had trouble hitting and receiving at the same time. Maybe he tried so hard to become an adequate catcher that he let his hit tool (which is really what will let him afford his house payments) go stale. He and Carp could make a good platoon at the position. Middlebrooks could make sense too - although his bat becomes even weaker at 1B where the "replacement level" is a bit higher. An year+option extension for Napoli is not the worst thing in the world, especially if they can fix their production at 3B.

I am. The AL MVP race is really between Trout and Cabrera again (closer this year than last although Trout has a better chance of actually being voted) with Chris Davis attracting those who genuflect at the HR-RBI altar. Ellsbury has been one of the best dozen or so players in the American League this year. Each voter has to fill out 10 names in the MVP ballot - he absolutely deserves to be named on a ballot that size. Might only end up something like 9th or 10th in the voting - but his season has absolutely justified that level of consideration.

I suspect the fans are actually relatively ok with moving to Jackie Bradley who has flashed promise and a full 7 years younger. I like Ellsbury and can argue that if he could churn out 5 seasons like this - that is an $18-20M a year guy easily. But heading into his age 30-35 years, where he might have to move to an outfield corner, I am not sure the bat will play up enough to justify that sort of salary.

I think it's going to be Boegarts (small chance Middlebrooks) soon enough. I think the Red Sox if they call up Boegarts, it will either be as a September call-up (and he'd be playoff eligible too due to the season ending injuries our relievers have suffered) or they might have him meet them in Kansas City. No fanfare, almost no hype - just drop him in the middle of a road trip without a ton of buzz and give him some low distraction time to break in.

Not with a 30 year old without a track record of durability. But he has been the Red Sox best position player this year - and he should get some MVP consideration (it's a two man race for the award, but Ellsbury should on some ballots). He has done all that he can to make himself a good case - and I think there is a decent chance SOMEBODY will offer him that "mistake" level of contract.

Now what is true is that Shane's value will fall through the floor if his legs (and glove) go. He just is not a good enough hitter to be a reasonable RF without his wonderful defense (CF he could fake). But that might not be something that the Sox have to worry about until his contract is over.

Has been excellent - also a good demonstration as to how silly it is to trawl for bullpen arms and pay $3M for the Jesse Crains of the world ... instead just bring up the guys with actual cheap upside like Britton or De La Rosa, even if these are just apprenticeships before competing for a rotation position. Obviously Britton has some regression etc etc, but he clearly has quality stuff, better than most of the guys in the trade market.

The deal could look bad in a year or so. But a 3 win player is worth a solid price. Defense has been excellent, offense has been ok, and the team has been excellent when he has been able to play. OPS is fun to ruminate over, but he is getting on base at a non-awful rate and has made up for it with the rest of the baseball skills. Ellsbury has been their best position player to date (and probably should appear on some MVP ballots - seeing as MVP ballots are 10-deep), so lots of guys look bad there, and Victorino will have a hard time justifying playing a corner if his glove fades much. But fortunately a short-ish commitment.

Protecting players - that's fine. Tough job for Lavarnway - although he also failed robustly. Wright's stuff had movement - clearly too much for the catcher to handle. That Lavarnway has proven unable to really hit like the monstah he showed in 2011 is tough - hard to see a real big league regular there.

I have not done any real studying - but I do wonder whether a large win "bump" (like if the Royals could get to 83 wins or more) would affect their bottom line enough that the push has some value to them. I don't know. Tells you about the business - the KC owner wants a return on this rebuilding, so his minions have to get him one.

Napoli is effective and frustrating - just one of those "three true outcomes" sort of guys - homerun, walk, strikeout. Not a ton of homeruns, but hitting the ball very hard when he can make contact. I wish he made more contact, but admire how he does not give at-bats away. The big difference offensively from 2012 is how our team has put together a collection of tough outs again - a staple of our best teams. Napoli is definitely "of" that sort of style.

Doubront has evolved into one of the AL's best lefty starters. Nobody would argue he is better than Price, Moore, Sale, Holland whomever at their respective best ... but he has been more consistent than Price and Moore this season (Price's start was particularly lousy) - Moore has not gone deep into games that often and he has had a few stinkers too. He has that occasional agonizing slow, can't find the plate innings out of "Dice-K's greatest hits" ... but it has gotten a lot better.

Iglesias is probably a starter to utility guy, depends on the hit tool. His ceiling is probably a .260 sort of guy without any real side benefits (walk/extra bases). It's a hole in your lineup, but if you can eliminate ground balls on that side of the infield and allow your team to let the league's best hitter waddle around at 3B without killing you - it's a fair trade.

Especially with the additional year of control.

I think Moore was afraid he would be the ex-general manager who didn't make that deal.

Shields has been very good for KC ... Ervin Santana rose from the dead ... imagine if that team could hit?

That is a fair take - Keri is generally excellent. In a vacuum, without external pressures (like a GM's own job security or some need to show fans something for a eleventy million year rebuilding process), the Royals would probably not do the deal. Young, cheap, controllable, all-star talent is extremely difficult to find - and a team like KC needs to hoard as much of that as possible. But all things weren't equal - and a lot of people felt they had to go in for a variety of reasons. For a team like Tampa - who really will never get fan interest, that sort of deal is a much easier proposition.

Royals made the trade as a win now proposition - not saying it was realistic, but I think the GM had some job saving to do. Trading an elite prospect for a very good if not quite elite starter was easy to explain to his fans I'd think. Tampa is ever opportunistic though. I don't think Boston had as attractive a chip as Tampa did - both in present performance and how much they'd have to pay to extend him. Also, we know on our end ownership can't help themselves from time to time on the PR/marketing front.

Crawford and Lackey in consecutive years were - well it was crapping out on a couple of very highly rated FAs. Crawford's decline was particularly stark - his skills looked like things that would age decently (batting approach, good athlete) - still weird to think a guy who was an MVP candidate a year before became replacement level filler (and even after his surgery just a guy).