sk7326

$50 to win the East $100 to make the playoffs either way I think that the team has muddled along in August has given fans a false sense of dread - they have not actually moved much in the standings.

Divisions: Sox, Tigers, Rangers WC: Rays, A's Divisions: Braves, Pirates, Dodgers WC: Cards, Reds really no suspense in the NL and very little in the AL

Answer is probably yes - at least for a time. But given how the sport was until - let's just say until pretty recently - it is hard to call any champion "clean" or any team having more integrity than others. Haters can hate, but it's not supported by the evidence.

Good game all around - but there was something about using Uehara in an 11 run game after leaving him in mothballs last night which felt like a poke in the eye.

Farrell did what so many managers do and it makes no sense. If Uehara is your best reliever (he is) - then holding him back for a less important situation (and yes, a save situation would have less critical than that last out to keep the game tied) is letting the stupid save rule dictate usage.

It's the starting pitching ... makes them more dangerous in October in theory. But they have to get there, like we do. But all of the teams are muddling along right now. Every day that passes with the teams all sort of equal, the better it is for Boston.

Shortstops and Center Fielders can always be moved to different positions if they can't stick - drafting them and then seeing what happens is never a bad way to go. It's where your best high school athletes play - and your best college ones often. If you just drafted them (and the hard throwers mixed in) - long term your organization prospect muscle will be solid.

They do - but you don't use high picks for that stuff. They are looking for star potential - and they can afford to since you can always find roster filler. It means that a lot of guys might miss - or be more trade bait. But a system without actual upside and just a bunch of future Mike Carps ain't doing anything for your big league future either. Org has a lot of live arms - there are very few aces period out there, and the Sox are almost never in a position to draft one.

I don't blame Farrell per se since most big league managers have been conditioned to this ... but ... 2 outs, need to get one guy out ... and somehow Uehara never gets the call ... sigh

I am not sure Back 9 is entirely fair ... I just meant the days when we could sit here and compare him to Verlanders or Felix Hernandez' of the world are probably over. But that doesn't mean he can't still be an excellent #3, adequate #2. His xFIP numbers have not wobbled that much, and his stuff is still good enough to pitch to contact. I mean if I were in Boston's shoes, I'd offer Lester a 5/75 extension and feel zero guilt - his durability alone makes that a completely fair deal.

Merrero was a value play where they picked him. Middle infielder, had a rough season but was valued by the industry before then (why JBJ slipped), in a program which has a phenomenal track record producing pros. Red Sox have clearly seen a bit of risk in taking pitchers early - and high school arms are the riskiest demographic of them all. Also add that the Sox have very rarely drafted in the spots where really high upside-low risk sort of pitchers have resided. They had that chance this year, and indeed took a live high school arm. As Barnes, Ranaudo showed - they do not fear the starting pitcher but find the earliest draft spots to be better places for position players where they normally draft. And given their ability to manipulate bonuses - they have more flexibility than other teams. (it is one of the fun quirks of the new CBA that the draft rules changes hurt the teams like Tampa) Red Sox have under Theo and Jed, definitely placed a priority on great athletes with their draft picks - even toolsy guys like Middlebrooks, who was a two sport kid who clearly needed polish. Often this involves guys in the middle of the field just because that's where your best athletes tend to end up. And given their system and where they often pick - this seems like an admin that clearly values upside and tools over pure probability.

Wherever he pitches - rest assured his innings will take a while ... he was effective with us for a few years and I never underestimate the culture clash that a guy like him has to face. But was he ever agonizing to watch - good enough stuff to come right at guys but stubbornly unwilling to do so.

Lester is what he is - a super valuable guy to have over the course of a long season - the ability to crank out 200+ average-above average innings while never getting hurt is an extremely underrated quality. But he is probably not going to be a #1/#2 sort of guy ever again (not with the declining strikeout and the inability to feel his cutter).

Nava is just like Salty and Carp and Drew - guys who are fairly useless against lefties even if the former two are switchhitters. Drew and Salty redeem that by the simple fact that replacement level for their positions is so low. Drew can manage to not be able to hit lefties and have his overall body of work STILL be 3-win sort of useful. Saltalamacchia falls in the same boat - his limitations against lefties is more than offset by just being a decent hitting catcher generally. I don't think you can start Nava and Carp without having solid platoon partners - definitely true for Nava, Carp's numbers are a bit tougher to evaluate given how few PAs he has against lefties. Fortunately, 1B/LF types are one of the easier things to find in the free agent market. This does not affect how much I like Nava, who is proof of the positive of perserverence in his career ... as well as how far having a good approach at the plate can take you

He has been ok. Strikeout rate still not "old Lester" - Giants helped a lot yesterday. But he has been solid.

We are in the land of double switches and hitting for pitchers ... even if Boegarts does not get starts, he will play a lot - possibly finishing a majority of the games. He might see a day off, but I doubt it ...

NL Parks - might be a lot more ...

(ducking lightning bolt) ... there is a lot of season left, blah blah ... that said, figured it'd be worthwhile to put the playoff eligible list together and keep it updated. Put simply, to be eligible for the postseason, a player has to be either: A) on the 25 man roster on August 31 on the disabled, bereavement or suspended lists as of August 31 C) guys on the DL as of August 31 who stay on the DL at season's end get a replacement spot. So, the playoff eligibles: P: Breslow, Britton, Villareal, Doubront, Lackey, Lester, Morales, Peavy, Tazawa, Uehara, Workman C: Ross, Saltalamacchia IF: Drew, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Pedroia OF: Carp, Ellsbury, Gomes, Nava, Victorino DH: Ortiz Disabled List: Bailey, Buchholz, Hanrahan, Miller, Thornton, Wilson, Snyder, Kalish Projected Wildcard Slots: 4 (Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Kalish all done for season)

Offense will be scarce - two big time pitchers parks and teams (at least in LA) to match. But the defense/pitching should also have a chance to perform well. Boegarts made sense this time - Sox need a little more versatility in the NL parks, and he gives them more options. Can he make them keep him here through August? That's up to him.

BABIP seems to be a repeatable pitching skill more than a hitting one. There are pitchers who can deliver low BABIPs, but you need a few years worth of data to prove it isn't a fluke (that a guy really is that hard to square up). For hitters there just is not a lot of control - although line drive rates can help. At the same time, so do ground ball rates (more likely to be base hits but obviously less potential for big damage). Let's put it this way - Seattle is an anemic offensive team and they basically sold Carp for a bag of baseballs. He has proven to be an excellent role player - you run the risk of making Brian Daubach sorts of mistakes by putting too much everyday significance into what he can do. I think he can be a lefty in a good to great platoon arrangement between LF-1B. But expecting much more is tough - even a switch hitter like Daniel Nava is functionally really only valuable against righties.

They'll bring up Boegarts - he will be on the playoff roster. I am not 100% sure if they will treat the wild card round like they did a year ago as a separate "round" - thus, you get to set a roster for the WC game, and then another for Game 1 of the ALDS. If they do and the Sox are a WC team, Boegarts is a lock to make it onto that roster. (1 game elimination, makes no sense to carry 11 pitchers if you can reset your lineup after the game is over). Bradley will also make the playoff roster I am almost certain - as will Lavarnway if at all possible.

if i'm not mistaken exact matchup of the Napoli walk off game (also a Sunday night)

Actually, last year's team was spectacularly unlucky - for a lot of the season carrying a positive run differential without a winning record. The pitching was bad - like wheeling out Aaron Cook's corpse bad. But the team was decimated by injuries and performance drops that nobody say coming. Crawford was so horrible in 2011 that he would have had to be better in 2012 and 2013 by just being a living breathing baseball player. But the injuries held him up still. If he could have recovered to just "average" the Sox could have lived with that. But what REALLY f'ed the Sox outside of the pitching - where their plans for world dominance failed - was that Adrian Gonzalez basically turned from a GUY! into a guy. The guy has persisted in LA. This doesn't mean he is a bad player - but he is not the transformational slugger for a decade the Sox (and the industry) thought the Red Sox were landing. 25 million for a 30 year old future Albert Pujols makes sense ... 25 million a year for a 30 year old future Adam LaRoche does not. You take that one one hand, and then take Kevin Youkilis, one of the leagues top dozen hitters entering that time frame, having injuries basically destroy his ability to be a serious everyday player. The things which seemed like safe bets ALL came up snake eyes - one hates just chalking it up to luck, but something very much like that happened.

What Farrell has done I think is just restore a sense of professionalism in the coaching staff. The communication is cleaner. Perhaps even the fried chicken is back - but moreover, an environment is there for the players to do their jobs. Were there other, less expensive choices who might have worked too? Without a doubt - like a Lovullo or a Gene Lamont - but clearly Cherington wanted Farrell and Farrell wanted Boston. The team and the day to day is just more "boring" this year - just a bunch of guys free to do their work, and a coaching staff that understands the entire Sox mission, from development to the nerdball.

162 PAs against lefties - basically the equivalent of 40 games. That is some small sample sizes at work - clearly his managers have thought that he's needed a righty partner if exposed for too much more than he has. For what its worth, using fangraphs, against lefties he had a higher strikeout rate, walked about half the rate and had a .381 BABIP. What is more relevant is that finding a corner infielder/outfielder who can hit lefties and be adequate defensively is not that difficult to find - heck Carp was not difficult to find. It's an easy way to construct a solid 1B without spending like they did for AGon.