sk7326

On some level we have to be grownups about this. The teams are all looking for an edge - and for a time from the resumption of baseball after the 1994 strike to, well, now I suppose - players took a whirl with PEDs, and more than likely teams helped provide them whenever possible. There is a narrative associated with cheating and clean players getting screwed - but without a full accounting of the time period, it is not fair to speculate on who was "enhanced" and who was not. Hell, baseball relies on such specialized skills that the actual positive effects of steroids are not at all set in stone. This doesn't mean I don't think there was an effect - I just don't know what it is. Homeruns are not sufficient evidence - after all the McGwire-Sosa thing happened in the shadows of a two team expansion, and in the history of baseball expansion periods have always had large homerun boosts come with it. Certainly I think the writers essentially passing along rumors like jr high school chicks about who might have used - and using that to base HoF decisions is unconscionable, especially placing a pure guilt by association case on Jeff Bagwell, who should be a lead pipe cinch to get in. Everybody had years to unring the bell and nobody chose to, and that includes the writers and the league itself. It is odd for a museum of baseball to try to deny that the greatest individual offensive performer since the Babe walked the earth - I am sure the drugs helped that as much as racial non-integration helped the Babe. (although the drugs do not explain a truly baffling 232 walks in a season). The effects of steroids are not certain - and I am not really sure HGH helps performance (in a highly skilled world like baseball) much at all. At least the latter has a bonafide medical use, and I don't see why it cannnot be delivered to players by team physicians. Technology to help injury recovery is a good thing. At the end of the day, did the 2004/7 Sox have PED use? Probably - but I have a hard time saying the Red Sox were dirty while the 2003 Marlins or 2000 Yankees were clean. That doesn't square with any sort of laugh test. It was not a "clean" game then (if it ever has been) - no point making judgments on relative cleanliness.

If you want to go with value creation, it'd be Ellsbury or Pedroia. Can't go wrong with either - though for me Ellsbury has been a wee bit better. Ortiz is way up there too, but it's still value only being created on one end of the field so to speak. If you look at it from an exceeds expectations perspective - Nava proving that he is at worst a legitimate piece of a credible corner outfield platoon is one, and obviously Koji Uehara's ability to be healthy has been the other. Lackey has been remarkable as well. Really this season has been a triumph of the middle of the bell curve. Last 2 seasons literally every out of the blue bad thing that could happen to this team happened. Yes, some of the wounds were self inflicted, but you just look at average expectations for this roster and these baseball players, and the 7 months before April 2013 really needed a ton to go wrong. This year has been our good players being good again, and the injury bug not being so debilitating.

Standings at the All Star Break 1. Red Sox 59-39 2. A's 56-40 (2 games back) 3. Tigers 52-43 (5.5 games back) 4. Rays 56-41 (2.5 games out in division) 5. Rangers 54-42 (2 games out in division) 6. Orioles 54-43 (4.5 games out in division, 0.5 game out WC) 7. Guardians 51-45 (1.5 games out in division, 3 games out WC) 8. Yankees 51-45 (7 games out in division, 3 games out of WC) 9. Royals 44-49 (7 games out in division, 8.5 games out WC) Standings entering today 1. Tigers 74-53 2. Rangers 74-53 3. Red Sox 75-54 (tied, Tigers have 2 games in hand) 4. Rays 72-53 (1 game out in division) 5. A's 71-55 (2.5 games out of division) 6. Guardians 69-58 (5 games out of division, 2.5 games out of WC) 7. Orioles 68-58 (5.5 games out of division, 3 games out of WC) 8. Yankees 67-59 (6.5 games out of division, 4 games out of WC) 9. Royals 64-61 (9 games out of division, 6.5 games out of WC) I know Sox have mucked around a bit - and I'd be more annoyed at "how" they are playing in April and May (where now we just want results) - but really with the parity at the top of the AL, the Sox have not actually lost much ground at all - in fact they have gained a half a game on Baltimore for the final playoff slot. What has really happened since the break was that some of the teams that might have been buried (Royals, Yankees) are still not dead. In some ways Sox are in the same position they were before the Break - and actually a little better since they've run off a month from the calendar. If this is struggling - things aren't so bad.

True - although Ryu's excellence should be tempered a bit - terrific pitcher's park. We're a good team - and the "take a ton of pitches" AL approach is always an adjustment for NL teams

$50 to win the East $100 to make the playoffs either way I think that the team has muddled along in August has given fans a false sense of dread - they have not actually moved much in the standings.

Divisions: Sox, Tigers, Rangers WC: Rays, A's Divisions: Braves, Pirates, Dodgers WC: Cards, Reds really no suspense in the NL and very little in the AL

Answer is probably yes - at least for a time. But given how the sport was until - let's just say until pretty recently - it is hard to call any champion "clean" or any team having more integrity than others. Haters can hate, but it's not supported by the evidence.

Good game all around - but there was something about using Uehara in an 11 run game after leaving him in mothballs last night which felt like a poke in the eye.

Farrell did what so many managers do and it makes no sense. If Uehara is your best reliever (he is) - then holding him back for a less important situation (and yes, a save situation would have less critical than that last out to keep the game tied) is letting the stupid save rule dictate usage.

It's the starting pitching ... makes them more dangerous in October in theory. But they have to get there, like we do. But all of the teams are muddling along right now. Every day that passes with the teams all sort of equal, the better it is for Boston.

Shortstops and Center Fielders can always be moved to different positions if they can't stick - drafting them and then seeing what happens is never a bad way to go. It's where your best high school athletes play - and your best college ones often. If you just drafted them (and the hard throwers mixed in) - long term your organization prospect muscle will be solid.

They do - but you don't use high picks for that stuff. They are looking for star potential - and they can afford to since you can always find roster filler. It means that a lot of guys might miss - or be more trade bait. But a system without actual upside and just a bunch of future Mike Carps ain't doing anything for your big league future either. Org has a lot of live arms - there are very few aces period out there, and the Sox are almost never in a position to draft one.

I don't blame Farrell per se since most big league managers have been conditioned to this ... but ... 2 outs, need to get one guy out ... and somehow Uehara never gets the call ... sigh

I am not sure Back 9 is entirely fair ... I just meant the days when we could sit here and compare him to Verlanders or Felix Hernandez' of the world are probably over. But that doesn't mean he can't still be an excellent #3, adequate #2. His xFIP numbers have not wobbled that much, and his stuff is still good enough to pitch to contact. I mean if I were in Boston's shoes, I'd offer Lester a 5/75 extension and feel zero guilt - his durability alone makes that a completely fair deal.

Merrero was a value play where they picked him. Middle infielder, had a rough season but was valued by the industry before then (why JBJ slipped), in a program which has a phenomenal track record producing pros. Red Sox have clearly seen a bit of risk in taking pitchers early - and high school arms are the riskiest demographic of them all. Also add that the Sox have very rarely drafted in the spots where really high upside-low risk sort of pitchers have resided. They had that chance this year, and indeed took a live high school arm. As Barnes, Ranaudo showed - they do not fear the starting pitcher but find the earliest draft spots to be better places for position players where they normally draft. And given their ability to manipulate bonuses - they have more flexibility than other teams. (it is one of the fun quirks of the new CBA that the draft rules changes hurt the teams like Tampa) Red Sox have under Theo and Jed, definitely placed a priority on great athletes with their draft picks - even toolsy guys like Middlebrooks, who was a two sport kid who clearly needed polish. Often this involves guys in the middle of the field just because that's where your best athletes tend to end up. And given their system and where they often pick - this seems like an admin that clearly values upside and tools over pure probability.

Wherever he pitches - rest assured his innings will take a while ... he was effective with us for a few years and I never underestimate the culture clash that a guy like him has to face. But was he ever agonizing to watch - good enough stuff to come right at guys but stubbornly unwilling to do so.

Lester is what he is - a super valuable guy to have over the course of a long season - the ability to crank out 200+ average-above average innings while never getting hurt is an extremely underrated quality. But he is probably not going to be a #1/#2 sort of guy ever again (not with the declining strikeout and the inability to feel his cutter).

Nava is just like Salty and Carp and Drew - guys who are fairly useless against lefties even if the former two are switchhitters. Drew and Salty redeem that by the simple fact that replacement level for their positions is so low. Drew can manage to not be able to hit lefties and have his overall body of work STILL be 3-win sort of useful. Saltalamacchia falls in the same boat - his limitations against lefties is more than offset by just being a decent hitting catcher generally. I don't think you can start Nava and Carp without having solid platoon partners - definitely true for Nava, Carp's numbers are a bit tougher to evaluate given how few PAs he has against lefties. Fortunately, 1B/LF types are one of the easier things to find in the free agent market. This does not affect how much I like Nava, who is proof of the positive of perserverence in his career ... as well as how far having a good approach at the plate can take you

He has been ok. Strikeout rate still not "old Lester" - Giants helped a lot yesterday. But he has been solid.

We are in the land of double switches and hitting for pitchers ... even if Boegarts does not get starts, he will play a lot - possibly finishing a majority of the games. He might see a day off, but I doubt it ...

NL Parks - might be a lot more ...

(ducking lightning bolt) ... there is a lot of season left, blah blah ... that said, figured it'd be worthwhile to put the playoff eligible list together and keep it updated. Put simply, to be eligible for the postseason, a player has to be either: A) on the 25 man roster on August 31 on the disabled, bereavement or suspended lists as of August 31 C) guys on the DL as of August 31 who stay on the DL at season's end get a replacement spot. So, the playoff eligibles: P: Breslow, Britton, Villareal, Doubront, Lackey, Lester, Morales, Peavy, Tazawa, Uehara, Workman C: Ross, Saltalamacchia IF: Drew, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Pedroia OF: Carp, Ellsbury, Gomes, Nava, Victorino DH: Ortiz Disabled List: Bailey, Buchholz, Hanrahan, Miller, Thornton, Wilson, Snyder, Kalish Projected Wildcard Slots: 4 (Bailey, Hanrahan, Miller, Kalish all done for season)

Offense will be scarce - two big time pitchers parks and teams (at least in LA) to match. But the defense/pitching should also have a chance to perform well. Boegarts made sense this time - Sox need a little more versatility in the NL parks, and he gives them more options. Can he make them keep him here through August? That's up to him.

BABIP seems to be a repeatable pitching skill more than a hitting one. There are pitchers who can deliver low BABIPs, but you need a few years worth of data to prove it isn't a fluke (that a guy really is that hard to square up). For hitters there just is not a lot of control - although line drive rates can help. At the same time, so do ground ball rates (more likely to be base hits but obviously less potential for big damage). Let's put it this way - Seattle is an anemic offensive team and they basically sold Carp for a bag of baseballs. He has proven to be an excellent role player - you run the risk of making Brian Daubach sorts of mistakes by putting too much everyday significance into what he can do. I think he can be a lefty in a good to great platoon arrangement between LF-1B. But expecting much more is tough - even a switch hitter like Daniel Nava is functionally really only valuable against righties.

They'll bring up Boegarts - he will be on the playoff roster. I am not 100% sure if they will treat the wild card round like they did a year ago as a separate "round" - thus, you get to set a roster for the WC game, and then another for Game 1 of the ALDS. If they do and the Sox are a WC team, Boegarts is a lock to make it onto that roster. (1 game elimination, makes no sense to carry 11 pitchers if you can reset your lineup after the game is over). Bradley will also make the playoff roster I am almost certain - as will Lavarnway if at all possible.