sk7326

Carp can be a 1B, but I suspect he'll need a RH caddy (like Salty and Nava do). Fortunately, finding those for value should not be difficult - it's one of the easier job openings to fill.

Only 2 year stretch comparable was Maddux for sure. Pedro's 291 ERA+ the best of the live ball era. The 243 in 1999 was 9th. Maddux 1994, 1995 were 271 and 260 respectively. That September start against the 1999 Yankees, where Pedro threw a 1 hitter with 17 Ks, and struck out something like the last 8 Yanks http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/news/1999/09/10/redsox_yankees_ap/ is the greatest performance I've ever seen. The 5 inning no hitter with an 87 mph fastball that October against Cleveland is the most unlikely.

The player tries to pull it, but he's going for a hit first. But yes, they don't get credit for what that out does. In general though, the out trade is still ultimately a negative (even if you walk, 1st and 2nd, nobody out is still a better situation and a runner at 3rd and one out). Jung is generally right - trading outs is bad until it's really late and close. BTW: the early sacrifice disease (especially with good hitters) is particularly a disease when you watch your local high school or a college game.

There is a lot of motivation and talent to make the league. Only 750 jobs available - so to get one is a big deal. That they drank on off days did not bother me per se - it was not like it was a new habit. It is not a great Hallmark card, but you have to assume it was standard operating procedure throughout the league (by most accounts, it is). After all, these are grownups. That the beer story existed is not debated, that it was causal to their 7-20 September (and not causal, say, to their 81-42 middle four and a half months) seems rather silly to me. This is a formula that won titles and made playoff regulars. The difference was a lack of healthy, effective pitching - and a horrible 7 games against TB when they needed it the least.

Iglesias has been revitalized since going to Detroit: .208/.255/.271. He has been turning into a BABIP-normalized pumpkin since June. Iglesias had never hit at any level until his 2-3 months of 22 infield hits and nearly .500 BABIP showed up. Iglesias is a truly marvelous defensive SS - maybe the best in the game. Detroit can afford to have him soak up grounders and pretend they have to carry a pitcher like an NL team - we could, but we needed a starting pitcher more. There is a very real question whether he can hit enough to justify a starting position playing baseball for a living - he hasn't aside from his early part of this season. Fortunately with his defense, he doesn't have to be good at the plate, just not really awful - the slash line he has put up in Detroit is at this second, pretty awful. I agree plate discipline and pitch recognition are different skills ... Middlebrooks has had trouble with BOTH. He had trouble with both most of his career but he can crush a ball he squares up. His game plan was all screwed up though - has it gotten better? Early evidence is mildly encouraging. Burden is on him though.

This. Pedro's 1999-2000 is the best pitching I've ever seen. Certainly stretches on par with Dwight Gooden 1985, mid 90s Greg Maddux, couple of Johan Santana's pre injury best, or even Bob Gibson or Koufax (on a league-adjusted basis) for best pitching seasons ever.

Well 17-8 depending on the end point, and won their last 5 ... the 6 wins in 7 head to head was a very unlikely sort of thing which is fairly unique in terms of circumstances for playoff impact. This year, Sox have 6 head to heads left against Baltimore and 7 against New York. Sweeps there will obvious make things complicated (and the Yankees need more luck than that). Kansas City and Cleveland might just not have enough opportunity to be the team to eliminate us. The next 9 games are particularly educational with the West Coast trip and then 3 with Baltimore.

I think diagnoses like pitching meltdown, bodies breaking down, the Rays just getting impossible hot ... all those are fair reasons that stem from what actually happened. The "beer" story was more of trying to shoehorn a narrative so Shaughnessy had something to write about.

Pitch recognition, plate discipline sides of the same coin. It's not like Middlebrooks has been a walk machine - at all - in his career at any level. I think the team has been looking for him to have a better plan when he gets to the plate - in some ways I wish they had kept him at 3rd (though I got it) since he was not going to be .192 awful forever, just by getting reps. He was putting a lot of pressure on himself though, so riding the bus a bit made some sense. His return does show a better approach - in the tiny sample - although he will never be a particularly patient hitter. It does place a cap on what he can do at the big league level - it is hard to have Vlad Guerrero's approach at the plate without being Vlad Guerrero.

It is a positive event for an out ... I don't think players or managers are necessarily looking for it over - say a base hit. In general the out-for-run trade is a bad one ... obviously there are particular non-pitcher hitting cases where it helps (in particular, if you really need exactly one run). But in general sacrificing and trading outs is not a great strategy.

I agree in general - but this week there might be a roster need for Boegarts or Bradley. Both guys can backup multiple positions - which will help in NL park-land.

If you go with some comps. Edwin Jackson got 4/52 almost entirely because he can provide mid-rotation innings without getting hurt. Dempster got 2/24 for the same reason. Given the usual salary inflation - you figure the salary for sheer "durability" is $14-15. Lester next offseason could ask for 4/60 and not be at all out of his mind. The evaluation of Shields is tough because while you have his crazy consistency and durability - I agree with you about whether he is actually a lights out pitcher. He has pitched in pitcher's parks his whole career and his xFIP numbers are not amazing. I would not hesitate going 4-5 years with him because of his track record of consistency. But yeah, I'd be thinking $16-18.

The Sox are going to need an extra position player on deck this week - might be an opportune time to get Boegarts a cup of coffee. As I've noted before - his playoff eligibility is a non-issue, they have enough season-ending injury DL slots to get him on regardless of the actual call up. The callup will be on merit. Team could use a spark - although the 14-13 record is against a very tough slate of opponents. It is not as bad as it seems - and they have not actually lost much to the standings.

The years will be tough - but the division history is attractive. If you sign him (as Boston), you are not signing him expecting a #1. But his history, his low effort mechanics - you expect a guy who can crank out 200 innings without drama or injury. There is a lot of value there in this market. It's the Jon Lester thing - it's easy to knock the peak, but guys who can crank out 30-35 average-above average starts while never getting hurt is a hard trait to find and something you need in the marathon.

Stuff is terrific - but what is interesting is that his splitter movement is much more of a tumble than you normally see - not the late hard movement of a Hideo Nomo or somebody. It is a much more effective swing and miss pitch than you'd think. He has been marvelous - and has held up much more than anybody could expect in terms of sheer durability. I expect him to get some 8th inning calls during the stretch as he has been used very carefully and he does not waste pitches.

trip will be interesting - continue a trend of running into a lot of pitcher's parks lately. The alarming sign for the offense were the issues in Toronto, which is a bit of a launching pad. This is another trip I could see Boegarts being called up for in theory - NL parks means you probably want to carry fewer pitchers than normal if you can.

Oh sure - but at the same time fans knew a lot less generally in 1941. Less was tracked - the old stats were all we had. It's one of the reasons I had very little patience with the "But Triple Crown!" argument for Cabrera over Trout. We know so much more about value now than we did in the old days (and even Williams in his .406 season did not win the MVP!). The exceptions for BA are very silly - I definitely agree there.

... don't get caught up in an angle that was used to sell newspapers. The pros who led a title winning juggernaut did not grow into lesser people - broken down and/or lesser players perhaps - that doesn't stand any level of credibility.

It's silly - and the idea of the sacrifice fly itself is silly. Nobody in that case is REALLY trying to make an out. And making outs is - in terms of run prevention and run scoring - the worst thing you can do. For the record, OBP punishes both of those cases equally - and one of the good reasons to use it over BA. BA claims to measure one thing, but OBP measures it better.

The stalwarts that we know and love - those are too easy. Of the non-standard choices ... Daniel Nava and Koji Uehara Uehara in particular - for a guy whose stuff is not that wipeout, just remarkable control ... doesn't mess around

Oh I lived it - but the pitchers were broken down too, the entire rotation had been fighting aches pains, on the DL and whatnot. Just a collision of a bunch of unlikely things - I've always thought the wild overreaction to an amazingly unlikely event was the management's biggest failure since they owned the team. After all in 2011, Lackey's arm as being held together by play-doh, Matsuzaka was gone, Buchholz was gone, Lester had a DL stint, Beckett was working through a bum ankle. Erik Bedard was a guy and they had to start Tim Wakefield and Kyle Weiland's corpses. By comparison, this year's rotation has been the picture of health.

Wily Mo was an interesting case. Horrible pitch recognition. But the Reds burned through his options so quickly that he couldn't be sent to the minors. He needed minor league ABs but the Reds mismanagement made it impossible. He was just good enough to justify seeing if he could turn into a diamond. Abreu looks like he has a more advanced approach (hard to have a less advanced one).

It's a fairly cheap ownership ... I don't think they can compete for Shields, but I do think they will make a qualifying offer and bet on the draft pick compensation making some teams gun shy. I think Shields will be high on the Red Sox shopping list clearly.

The pitching was the other side of it, but a lot of that was a ton of guys hurt badly ... in particular the team's best hitter's body falling to pieces http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/gallery/2011/redsox_2011_injury_report/ That, and the Rays going on a wildly unlikely hot streak. If the Red Sox go .500 the rest of the way, that is 91-71, which is hard to picture missing the playoffs. That being said, the schedule is going to be tough the rest of the way - in particular this week's West Coast Swing, being able to burp out a .500 record would be very helpful.

Teams that get a lot of baserunners in general will have guys with RBIs ... you can get to the "great hitter" question in a lot of other ways. There was a lack of situational hitting - but there is very little evidence situational hitting is actually a repeatable skill (separate from just plain old hitting). The guys at the top of those lists are largely random (as is the teams at the top of the 1-run game lists). Runs scored (silly for the same reason) does not get the same sort of play as a "triple crown" stat yet is every bit as important in the run creation process. I mean when Manny had 165 RBIs, he had an amazing season - but the RBIs were more of a reflection on how amazing Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel and Robbie Alomar were that season. Manny almost always had guys to knock in - and often he did.