sk7326

Boras ... is a GREAT agent. He will not sell Ellsbury as anything less than a full time All-Star CF. A team's analysis (assuming the Red Sox are one of them) might be more skeptical - that he is a LF in waiting whose best traits tend to age quickly. The good news for Jacoby is that all you need is two bidders who believe Boras' version - and there almost certainly will be. If the Angels could backload a 5 year deal for a former MVP with a much more serious injury history than Ellsbury with a very "old" body, somebody will be entranced by what Boras has to offer. Given the tendencies of this baseball operations department - the Red Sox will most likely not be one of them ... UNLESS ownership steps in, which I never dismiss.

They are - although some of them are not that helpful (bad luck pre-trade deadline and a ton of injuries). As far as other things - the manager decision, the change of manager, the leaking of the former manager as a drug addict to the local paper, the obsession with the TV ratings ... last year was bad a lot of levels, and it is fair I think to wonder whether Cherington was free to make a lot of those decisions or whether it was the Lucchino/TV Production team that did most of the driving. This year there definitely seems like more of a commitment to letting the baseball staff do its job.

He's in a slump - the .340 OBP is sort of holding the value up a bit, and that he has done a nice job at 1B. But I'd expect more "days off" if this continues.

What is true I think is that Ben has been appreciably more empowered by his bosses this year than last - that has helped things generally. One suspects the need to trade for "proven closers" is still an ownership desire, but it is a fetish that is not a good trend. But Ben has brought back some of the "good management" that was the norm with this team. This is a hard ownership group to work for - and he has navigated it well. The team's job is about this year. The GM has to worry about this year and the next 5 years (theoretically decade, but job security implies a shorter horizon). Can the Red Sox compete in the longer run due to things Cherington has done - and judging by the farm and the big league club and the relative payroll position (compared to what his management wants to spend) - that is absolutely a yes.

Can McCann stay healthy? A guy his age and with the miles - can he make 100 starts? Salty has his flaws - a switchhitter who really adds no value right handed - but given the rock bottom replacement level for catchers - he is quite good. Get him a right handed caddy (which Lavarnway has shown he is not) and the combination can be very helpful. I like Lavarnway as a hitter - but last 2 years he has shown that catching is too hard a job for him to be able to do it AND rake like he had shown before 2012.

BTW, "80% of his 2011 numbers" means a fWAR of 7.3 wins. In the entire majors, there were eight 7-win players last season, and two CFs (Trout and McCutchen). Can Ellsbury crank out five seasons of Andrew McCutchen (or Ryan Braun if he moves to a corner, without the suspension of course)? Good luck there. I'd be pleased but it'd be hard.

Rating the guy who brings in players is worthwhile - Cherington has done a good job. This is a very hard gig between the fans and his own bosses ... he has to navigate a lot and does so pretty well.

All of his moves this year have been solid or better, Hanrahan trade aside. He has been prepared for this gig for years - and it shows. Also it is hard to rate him, because he does work in a very weird front office - and there are moves (like last year's manager or the Dodgers trade) which were foisted upon him. Really, how he handled the Dodgers trade showed me a lot. That was clearly a deal made at the ownership/Lucchino level reacting to negative criticism (as they often do). His team was able swoop in and make it an acceptable baseball trade. His ability to do the right things in the scouting-development-analytics areas, while reporting to people who probably are telling him all about how much they need NESN's ratings to increase, is good and underrated.

Stanton has been a 3 win player from his arrival, and more like a 5 or 6 win one since. 2011 was not an outstanding season, but the rest have been - gets on base regularly and obvious 80 power. My hesitation with Boegarts for Stanton for instance is 3 years of age difference and premium position. But very few players have delivered like Stanton has so young.

Here is the thing with JBJ to remember - this year he was the product of a great spring and a job opening. I also suspect the ever so-WEEI conscious ownership was pushing the angle a touch. But he had only like 61 ABs above AA or something. He is advanced because he had a college career so less to teach early, but he is not oozing experience. He needed the year on the farm anyway - or just reps generally. His approach is very very advanced - this will allow him to be a .240 hitter and not kill us. Indeed with the glove it makes him a solid CF with several years of growth ahead of him. I am in on him no doubt.

Maybe - though probably less speed. I am thinking a middle class man's Troy Tulowitzki, but more durable which sort of makes up for the former.

The team could succeed with a lot of 15-25 homerun types too (the "Boston Bruins" approach) ... as long as none of them give at-bats away. Choo is a perfect fit there (so is Stanton, but one only costs money). Marlins have no incentive to give up a guy they still have some control over - with a team that has a modicum of promise. He could still be a star when the Marlins are good again.

The point on the K-rate outlier is fair. That said, 33 years old, so there is a level of burden of proof that it's not a dip in stuff. Timlin is an interesting comparison, though Timlin's control was better. Breslow this year has had some extraordinary HR numbers for a guy who is not really an extreme GB pitcher. Certainly the ERA/xFIP gap he has is a dubious indicator. I don't mind bringing him back - but I tend to not want to give more than 1-2 year guarantees to ANY reliever not named Rivera, Kimbrel or Chapman.

Ellsbury - let him go. A tough decision and I'm not 100% "let him walk". But 5 years is too rich without any sort of options. Napoli - bring him back. If they can get a year + option for an average price ($10M maybe) it's a solid value Drew - He will probably get 3 years from somebody ... I'd bring him back for 1 or 2. Frankly, this was the point of the marriage - Drew has reestablished him value as an above average to good ML SS and the Red Sox were able to solve a flaming train wreck of in that position. Choo - good idea, perfect fit. He can't really play CF, but he has been able to fake it at CIN. A Choo-Bradley-Victorino outfield features three guys who can at least pretend to play CF, a good thing. He is one of the best on-base guys in the game, and the Sox can never have too many of those. Salty - Lavarnway has shown he can't really do this for a living. Not really many choices here. Perhaps call the Twins on Joe Mauer for diligence. Stanton - will cost too much. A 23 year old slugger is a great idea though - but I wouldn't empty a farm system for somebody who has to play a corner. (by empty a farm, Boegarts + more blue chippers)

Bullpen will always be a rotating audition - which is the way it should be. Breslow obviously is the lowest probability to repeat his performance (this is where the strikeout numbers are useful) - although by definition all relievers are high risk for repeating performance. Uehara is the safest bet, although he has been a bit less homer prone than his career numbers indicate - his location is extraordinary and he gets a lot of swing and miss. Miller will help them when he returns. Bailey (who was inconsistent anyway) and Hanrahan (who looked like he couldn't really be a great reliever anyway) I am less certain about. Britton has the potential for a larger role - as does De La Rosa (if he can't start), Del Torre whomever. Just keep running live arms through and see what clicks.

Oh, LF matters a ton - that's why Brock is VERY overrated historically (his numbers make a possible HoF CF, but not at all the case as a full time LF) ... Henderson playing LF is what holds him back from the very top of "greatest ever" lists (though he is on any credible Top 15 list or so). But Henderson's greatness on offense more than held up for his position, year after year. Ellsbury is a good on base guy at his best - but not hitting the >.400 mark regularly. I don't bash his power numbers, you'd see that Rickey's numbers were all over the map homerunwise as well. But Rickey's production is the sort of thing Ellsbury has to boost his game to if he expects to maintain an all-star-ish level of production when he moves to a corner position.

I'd look away from the OPS for Will - he'll hit the ball hard. But if we can get an OBP at something acceptable, .320-.330 or so (league average, slightly above). Preferably with a decent number of unintentional walks to go with it. Boegarts is still very much an option here - I doubt this is the final verdict, Farrell said as much yesterday.

If he repeated his 2013 numbers over the next 6 years, it would justify the contract - the resume is fairly thin for producing 2011/2013 level horsepower. The stolen base numbers are interesting but not that important (Ellsbury's 2013 is better than virtually any Lou Brock season, SBs or not). For me the question is whether he can play a good CF for the next 5 years, and if he can hit enough to carry a corner position if he can't. Odds are against him on both - but I'm a fan. Rickey Henderson held his value into old age - but he was an extraordinary hitter, just a different level of offensive force (and that is not at all a dig against Ellsbury).

Difference between the two is - well WMB is a proven okay defender there. They both have power, and both hit for roughly the same batting average. There is a good chance WMB will hit better here than Boegarts would have. But Boegarts would have still been plenty competitive in terms of actually not making outs ... basically a .270/.300 sort of slash line vs a .240/.330 sort of one. I hope the tour in the minors helped Middlebrooks - but pitch recognition is usually born, not made. Guys allergic to walk, very rarely shake that allergy. But there is no reason he can't be a league average 3B. I would have chosen Boegarts, but I get it - and I don't think this is a final verdict on the matter. Remember, Boegarts can be on the playoff roster - no matter when he comes up (due to the Hanrahan, Bailey, Miller and Kalish injuries). So the pressure to bring him in August was never really there.

I think Boegarts made it a hard decision. But this is the safer option - and certainly still an upgrade over Snyder's corpse.

Just missed a spot - yuck. On the bright side, between Lester's pretty good outing last night - can afford to throw the bullpen at today.

Fly ball pitcher - it happens ... but yeah, he has a good contract, good to have back next season

Snyder's days are clearly numbered. Holt's job is safe - there is no other remotely qualified "utility infielder" on the roster. If they were going to promote Middlebrooks, I think they would have already done it. They still might - but I think the organization is trying to find a way to make the Boegarts promotion happen without too much pressure on him.

If there is a combination of pitching slump and serious injury problems - and a team going 22-2, there is some real trouble. That's a lot of "ifs" but it's what makes this thing fun. After all 2011 was really maybe 5% fried chicken and 95% team turning into a MASH unit.

McCann's durability for the future is a very serious concern. Big reason the Red Sox have invested so heavily in catchers has just been the reality of finding one for a long term. Just a really tough gig to hold. To Salty's credit, he has made himself a non-awful receiver/defensive catcher and a legitimate 2-3 win sort of player. Given the rock bottom replacement level of the position - he is as good a reasonable alternative as there is.