sk7326

I say no - but Carp with a right handed caddy is not at all bad as a fallback position. And yes, if Napoli did not have a competition for his services, he'd make a fine righty partner.

Well Braun won't be doing that anymore probably - but those stats are an expectation for a LF ... Stanton is batting .238, but he is getting on base almost as often as Ellsbury, so it's not at all bad. The SB numbers are more interesting than crucial - we know the industry values stolen bases, but 1985 ain't comin back. Speedsters between 30 and 36 have had some good numbers, but speedsters without pop who can't play CF anymore - the stolen bases are just not enough to offset the other stuff. Basically you are talking Ichiro - who has not been an effective corner outfielder for 3 years. I love Ellsbury - and the lack of homeruns does not bother me - he is clearly not a slap hitter. He is hitting the ball hard, just not as many going over the fence. But I am not sentimental about what he represents as an investment. The Crawford comp is instructive. Crawford had a pseudo-MVP season entering his free agent year - a great athlete but also a guy who was not playing CF. His rough season in 2011 indeed was made even rougher because he was playing an "offensive" position. That he was a good defender in LF (and he slipped there too in 2011) hardly mattered when his bat when in the tank so hard. The Red Sox if anything overvalued the defensive component of Crawford's WAR-case. This is the basic principle of WAR/VORP/whatever. The fact is the Red Sox could snap their fingers pull Daniel Nava and Mike Carp from obscurity into ok production at LF. So if Ellsbury can't produce like Daniel Nava as a left fielder - then a team is wasting its money, since that sort of production is not hard to find. Can a team like Pittsburgh - for instance - who is getting NOTHING out of their RF, justify Ellsbury as a RF with McCutchen manning CF? Sure - but that is a very specific case. I love Ellsbury - I am trying not to be sentimental about his production as a 30 year old outfielder.

He moves to LF, his fringy .800 OPS-ness puts him in a cohort with Giancarlo Stanton or Ryan Braun's statistics ... that is a different group than as a CF. His numbers have to be examined in context with being an acceptable CF, and more credit for being a good one. He will be 30 when he enters the market - and with so much of his value in his legs, how much peak vs decline would you be buying over the next 6 years REALLY.

From a lot of the insider accounts - it really does seem like the baseball pros - Cherington and his staff - have had much more empowerment to work without the TV ratings people lording over them, power which did not exist last year. The decisions have been far less reactive, and the deals have been far less desperate. The coaching staff has gotten on the same page, and the manager deserves credit for not being a bozo. The players who have always been good have been good - the guys who have been winners here until the injury plague of 2011-2012. What changed was a lot of bad luck sort of things have improved - Farrell has been able to put a fairly steady lineup on the field all season - and the rotation has suffered without Buchholz but has been pretty stable otherwise (even with his slide late, has been an underrated quality Dempster - and Lester - have provided). The team also got back to the OBP-driven, slow as molasses approach with tough at bat after tough at-bat. Let's put it this way - we're all guessing with regards to "responsibility" for 2012 v 2013. But in 2013, all the moves smell like things the Red Sox Front Office of the mid-late 2000s would have done. 2012 resembled something a WEEI caller would do.

One - welcome ... Two - the bullpen guys - you'll need them all, and you can't count on any of them. Just the nature of the position and when you are collecting performance data 50 innings or so at a time. Uehara looks like the most reliable (and his option will vest, so this discussion is moot). Tazawa is worth bringing back, but if somebody offers him 3 years - that becomes a very tough ask ... bringing ANY reliever back for that kind of commitment with the natural volatility of the position is generally a bad idea.

Homeruns have slumped - that is where things have been tough. Strikeouts are more interesting than an actual issue.

On pace for a 3-4 win sort of season. Like Mark Bellhorn, strikes out so much that the good stuff is easy to miss. Gets on base a lot, plays an excellent shortstop - and a legitimately dangerous bat at the bottom of the order. For a one year flyer - he has been very good. I was settling for average, he has been legitimately good. Iglesias' first 2 months were seductive as all those balls found holes - but there is not really that much of a race as to who offered a better all around package at the position.

Salty is probably closer to your number than $15M. But he is not really much worse than Brian McCann who'd cost years, money, and you are buying the later years of a body with a LOT of miles on him. It is hard to picture him making 110 starts ever again. You are better off finding Salty a useful righthanded caddy and be done with it.

There is no need - and I think the Red Sox might be spooked from a qualifying offer because Drew might take it. He made 9.5 million because that is the going rate for an above average SS, which he has been before. You have to look a bit beyond OPS here - although that is a solid place to start. He got on base at a good clip - which is more important than the slugging part. His BABIP is a little high (.321) but not at the absurd levels Iglesias was enjoying. Ultimately he is going to end this year as a 3-4 win player, and frankly in this economic climate that is a bargain for $9.5 million. Good to excellent defense, excellent approach, good power ... he is going to have suitors this offseason. He has probably had the best SS season since Nomar left and the position became a black hole. Let's put it this way, there are plenty of at-bats for everybody if Drew and Boegarts come back. Middlebrooks might get squeezed, but part of that is on him.

Dempster - innings eater for a team without any - scouting reports said not as good as he showed in Chicago, not as bad as with Texas (lot of HR luck there) ... B- Uehara - great value A+ Victorino - all of his WAR is in defense, contract rich for a potential platoon player down the line, but short hitch, B Napoli - C. Average 1B right now, but could still be better. Drew - A-. Excellent contract, quietly very good year. Gomes - B+. For what he is, a bench bat - has been good. Excellent approach even if I wish he had made contact a little more.

Extending Drew is a good move. That said, this was clearly a 2010 Beltre-sort of marriage here. Drew had to rebuild his good name again and the Red Sox needed a SS. If a team looks at Drew and sees a 3/$35-40 sort of player, I'd have a hard time going there. I do think the market for Drew will be very competitive given how god awful the position is around the majors - there is some very exciting SS on the way, but Drew is an upgrade for a lot of teams.

It was a little more complicated that - Baltimore offered a datapoint from experience, and the 20 year old was outhitting the incumbent. That said, WMB was the safe move here - and we DO have to figure out if he can square up major league pitching consistently and whether he knows what a "ball" is. There is some dual purpose - and if WMB is still the same modest ceiling guy he had shown earlier, they can make the Boegarts move sooner. I think there is a 90-100% chance Boegarts will be on the roster when the postseason starts - just curious how he will get there.

Boras ... is a GREAT agent. He will not sell Ellsbury as anything less than a full time All-Star CF. A team's analysis (assuming the Red Sox are one of them) might be more skeptical - that he is a LF in waiting whose best traits tend to age quickly. The good news for Jacoby is that all you need is two bidders who believe Boras' version - and there almost certainly will be. If the Angels could backload a 5 year deal for a former MVP with a much more serious injury history than Ellsbury with a very "old" body, somebody will be entranced by what Boras has to offer. Given the tendencies of this baseball operations department - the Red Sox will most likely not be one of them ... UNLESS ownership steps in, which I never dismiss.

They are - although some of them are not that helpful (bad luck pre-trade deadline and a ton of injuries). As far as other things - the manager decision, the change of manager, the leaking of the former manager as a drug addict to the local paper, the obsession with the TV ratings ... last year was bad a lot of levels, and it is fair I think to wonder whether Cherington was free to make a lot of those decisions or whether it was the Lucchino/TV Production team that did most of the driving. This year there definitely seems like more of a commitment to letting the baseball staff do its job.

He's in a slump - the .340 OBP is sort of holding the value up a bit, and that he has done a nice job at 1B. But I'd expect more "days off" if this continues.

What is true I think is that Ben has been appreciably more empowered by his bosses this year than last - that has helped things generally. One suspects the need to trade for "proven closers" is still an ownership desire, but it is a fetish that is not a good trend. But Ben has brought back some of the "good management" that was the norm with this team. This is a hard ownership group to work for - and he has navigated it well. The team's job is about this year. The GM has to worry about this year and the next 5 years (theoretically decade, but job security implies a shorter horizon). Can the Red Sox compete in the longer run due to things Cherington has done - and judging by the farm and the big league club and the relative payroll position (compared to what his management wants to spend) - that is absolutely a yes.

Can McCann stay healthy? A guy his age and with the miles - can he make 100 starts? Salty has his flaws - a switchhitter who really adds no value right handed - but given the rock bottom replacement level for catchers - he is quite good. Get him a right handed caddy (which Lavarnway has shown he is not) and the combination can be very helpful. I like Lavarnway as a hitter - but last 2 years he has shown that catching is too hard a job for him to be able to do it AND rake like he had shown before 2012.

BTW, "80% of his 2011 numbers" means a fWAR of 7.3 wins. In the entire majors, there were eight 7-win players last season, and two CFs (Trout and McCutchen). Can Ellsbury crank out five seasons of Andrew McCutchen (or Ryan Braun if he moves to a corner, without the suspension of course)? Good luck there. I'd be pleased but it'd be hard.

Rating the guy who brings in players is worthwhile - Cherington has done a good job. This is a very hard gig between the fans and his own bosses ... he has to navigate a lot and does so pretty well.

All of his moves this year have been solid or better, Hanrahan trade aside. He has been prepared for this gig for years - and it shows. Also it is hard to rate him, because he does work in a very weird front office - and there are moves (like last year's manager or the Dodgers trade) which were foisted upon him. Really, how he handled the Dodgers trade showed me a lot. That was clearly a deal made at the ownership/Lucchino level reacting to negative criticism (as they often do). His team was able swoop in and make it an acceptable baseball trade. His ability to do the right things in the scouting-development-analytics areas, while reporting to people who probably are telling him all about how much they need NESN's ratings to increase, is good and underrated.

Stanton has been a 3 win player from his arrival, and more like a 5 or 6 win one since. 2011 was not an outstanding season, but the rest have been - gets on base regularly and obvious 80 power. My hesitation with Boegarts for Stanton for instance is 3 years of age difference and premium position. But very few players have delivered like Stanton has so young.

Here is the thing with JBJ to remember - this year he was the product of a great spring and a job opening. I also suspect the ever so-WEEI conscious ownership was pushing the angle a touch. But he had only like 61 ABs above AA or something. He is advanced because he had a college career so less to teach early, but he is not oozing experience. He needed the year on the farm anyway - or just reps generally. His approach is very very advanced - this will allow him to be a .240 hitter and not kill us. Indeed with the glove it makes him a solid CF with several years of growth ahead of him. I am in on him no doubt.

Maybe - though probably less speed. I am thinking a middle class man's Troy Tulowitzki, but more durable which sort of makes up for the former.

The team could succeed with a lot of 15-25 homerun types too (the "Boston Bruins" approach) ... as long as none of them give at-bats away. Choo is a perfect fit there (so is Stanton, but one only costs money). Marlins have no incentive to give up a guy they still have some control over - with a team that has a modicum of promise. He could still be a star when the Marlins are good again.

The point on the K-rate outlier is fair. That said, 33 years old, so there is a level of burden of proof that it's not a dip in stuff. Timlin is an interesting comparison, though Timlin's control was better. Breslow this year has had some extraordinary HR numbers for a guy who is not really an extreme GB pitcher. Certainly the ERA/xFIP gap he has is a dubious indicator. I don't mind bringing him back - but I tend to not want to give more than 1-2 year guarantees to ANY reliever not named Rivera, Kimbrel or Chapman.