sk7326

Sox, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Jays ... has been best division in baseball. Even the Red Sox doomsday forecasts coming into the year were a bit silly - I am surprised that the division winner will get to 95 wins probably, just thought last place would be like 80-82.

oh a hanging curve ... Drew has done a nice job this season when healthy

Hamilton's approach started to fail him towards the end of last year - and this year clearly. Upton has been a 3-win sort of player and young enough to be a little more - obviously things have worked out to your prophecy so far.

Well Bard was a major job switch - that is one thing. Middlebrooks is a different animal - his approach was awful last year too, but it was redeemed by guys not having a ton of tape on him. The idea I think was a low pressure place for him to learn how to recognize pitches - and not worry about the spiral of ineptitude he had worked himself into. But if there hasn't been progress - who knows. Obviously this weekend lends itself to a call-up so we'll see.

Dempster is giving them about all they could ask so far. Really just one mistake.

Last year's free agent push excepted, he has generally been a good "approach" guy at the plate (caught Josh Hamilton disease, trading walks for homeruns and strikeouts). The value in the free agent market was his age, and that he played a position that is hard to find. Braves are regretting the decision to effectively "trade" Bourn for Upton - but both high risk and Upton was the upside play. Neither have set the world on fire - though fly balls go to die when they are around.

Might be one of those cases where it won't get well until the offseason - if it's a core injury of some kind. You could skip a start maybe - that is an option, and Farrell did bump everybody back with the Wright start (and frankly Dempster looks as sharp as he has in a month, although Houston is awful). Whatever is going on - he has battled his butt off, but it has been a slog.

WMB is probably better than Holt, but he can't play 2B - so unless he can do that, Holt needs to stay up. Snyder is another story. WMB's approach was broken going back to the minors - if he showed progress, he'd be back. You don't think that the Sox WANT Middlebrooks to be the guy? He just hasn't shown it. IF he could just put together good at-bats, which has been a problem for him his entire career.

Dempster actually has looked solid today ... clearly the odd man out rotationwise for the playoffs right now - but so far, 4 Ks - one bad pitch really.

Brain fart by their 1B ... we'll take it

I give Dempster credit - i suspect he is hurt some and the team is not discussing it. Hopefully the splitter is on today. Frankly, hope his command is on - that is his whole thing.

Postseason eligibility is a non-issue. The Red Sox will be able to replace Hanrahan, Miller and Bailey on the postseason roster with anybody who is in the organization as of August 31 (think of it as the K-Rod rule). Boegarts can be snuck onto the roster regardless of when he gets called up.

I would consider Ellsbury - I just think the years will be too rich for his age, especially if there are no team options. Bradley has more long term upside - although he probably won't put up a "2nd best player in the AL" sort of season. And just because THIS team can play an outfield without a ton of pop does not mean it's a good idea. Victorino has been good - but all of his value as a right fielder is from defense. If he loses a step (possible at his age) he becomes hard to play there.

Also 2 years younger than Ellsbury going on the market - Braves were buying 2 more years of peak/upside

Nobody is contending he is going to win the MVP - but will he crack the Top 10. Two years ago he was 2nd and deserved more consideration for #1 ... he is having a top 10 season again, although more like #6-12 than #2.

Counting stats certainly are a big deal. But so is having a great season on a contender. The Red Sox have had a pretty balanced group - Ellsbury has had the best season of the group (though Pedroia and Ortiz have their cases and not at all bad choices). He will pull votes on that basis. But since you asked. Trout and Cabrera are far and away the best resumes - top 2 in fWAR, close this year instead of the rout it was last year, but definitely ahead of the pack. Chris Davis and Evan Longoria will be way up there too. So there are 4 names. While there are a lot of pitchers who deserve consideration, we know there is a severe anti-pitcher writers bias. As such, probably only Max Scherzer and his pitcher wins will get serious MVP consideration. After that, it gets REALLY cloudy: Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre, Papi, Ellsbury, Pedroia, King Felix, Jason Kipnis, Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, Adam Jones ... could throw a blanket over all of them. Ellsbury's case is as good as any of them. He lacks the power numbers, but he is not going to put up slap hitter stats either - extra base hits is fine. Yes, defense and baserunning are not so valued by old fogey voters - but when you put up an eye popping counting statistic like his stolen base numbers, that gets noticed.

Truth is somewhere in between - Bumgarner has not handled the workload of a #1 yet. Has not pitched more than 8 this season - lot of NL pitchers have piled up significantly more innings (Wainwright and Kershaw by about 30) ... would take a lot to pry him loose, but not impossible. Either way the Giants hang up for the reasons you cite. The Giants need bats! Also, quality starting pitching is the hardest thing in the world to acquire, so when you develop one of your own he is a core guy.

Oh he IS untouchable - but that's why you pick one of the league's best players (pitcher or otherwise) as a target for him. 28 next year, incredibly durable - great fundamentals (low effort delivery etc) - and you'll be buying a lot of peak value. And Seattle has a case for dumping him. San Francisco has far less of a case for moving Bumgarner - theya re not really rebuilding. They'd trade Lincecum for a handful of magic beans, but that is a totally different story.

Well, first - that list is not that bad. If you trade Bradley straight up - if we want to go down this road - you are probably hoping for a full-season horse, #3/#4 type. That is, not a guy who is any sort of ace, but whose value lies in being able to crank out 30 average-above average starts a season. (basically - Jon Lester) As far as free agency goes - the Sox will take a long hard look at James Shields for sure. He is not a true ace, but definitely high quality and has a history in the division. There are also a lot of other guys (Jorge De La Rosa, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson) who have various issues but are very much worth kicking the tires on for Dempster-level money. For the trade for Bumgarner - he would require more. He is cheap, under control, young, good and the Giants have championship dreams - even if they did not fulfill them this season - and cash. (typical Giants season - if their pitching is good enough to squeeze their putrid offense into October they become very dangerous, otherwise you get a season like this) If you are going to trade for a pitcher - might as well aim much higher - like King Felix, and for a guy like THAT you start discussing Boegarts.

I believe September callups don't affect that - but I am not 100%. I have been focused on the postseason eligibility thing - where Boegarts is covered as well. I think they are waiting for an opportunistic time to bring him up, where they can break him in a little bit (as much as the Nation allows that at all).

Given the way baseball salaries inflate - $14M a year for Pedroia in 6 years will be value as long has he is still a 2-3 win sort of player. Ellsbury has been a better all around player than Pedroia this year - that much is true. (gets on base a bit less, but hitting for more power, stealing bases for what its worth, defense is excellent also at a premium position) But Pedroia produced more over his last contract - more track record - and he got re-upped for much more favorable price. He will be able to stay at 2B for the duration of that contract most likely (that is just my own opinion of course) - Ellsbury has to count on his speed holding up or else he has to move to LF or RF, where his power goes from "pretty good" to "not good enough".

Holt is here for position flexibility. If a team is committed to having an 11 man pitching staff, the bench players have to be able to cover more. Pedroia has no backup without Holt here - so he stays. Snyder being voted off the island on the other hand is only a matter of time.

Well the last 2 seasons also coincided with a focus on a really hard position he is probably no good at. This sort of happened with Jesus Montero in Seattle when you consider how he smashed in the minors to how poorly his big league career has gone. It does make you wonder if you just told a guy like that "just focus on hitting - we'll work around it", that it would improve things. I wonder if Lavarnway is just a guy who can't handle both jobs at the same time (really the last 2 seasons might be hinting at that more than anything)?

Holt's big league roster spot makes more sense than Snyder's. Holt is the only bench guy they have who can play 2B. (or for that matter SS, though a Boegarts promotion fixes that) I think the decision is really Snyder vs Boegarts/Middlebrooks

Napoli has been ok at 1B. Nothing special, but not bad. Helps that he takes a ton of pitches and draws a lot of walks so the cold stretches are still salvageable. I like the thought on Lavarnway. In his 2011 callup, when he was DHing, he showed that there was some real power there. But clearly he has had trouble hitting and receiving at the same time. Maybe he tried so hard to become an adequate catcher that he let his hit tool (which is really what will let him afford his house payments) go stale. He and Carp could make a good platoon at the position. Middlebrooks could make sense too - although his bat becomes even weaker at 1B where the "replacement level" is a bit higher. An year+option extension for Napoli is not the worst thing in the world, especially if they can fix their production at 3B.