sk7326

Ellsbury - let him go. A tough decision and I'm not 100% "let him walk". But 5 years is too rich without any sort of options. Napoli - bring him back. If they can get a year + option for an average price ($10M maybe) it's a solid value Drew - He will probably get 3 years from somebody ... I'd bring him back for 1 or 2. Frankly, this was the point of the marriage - Drew has reestablished him value as an above average to good ML SS and the Red Sox were able to solve a flaming train wreck of in that position. Choo - good idea, perfect fit. He can't really play CF, but he has been able to fake it at CIN. A Choo-Bradley-Victorino outfield features three guys who can at least pretend to play CF, a good thing. He is one of the best on-base guys in the game, and the Sox can never have too many of those. Salty - Lavarnway has shown he can't really do this for a living. Not really many choices here. Perhaps call the Twins on Joe Mauer for diligence. Stanton - will cost too much. A 23 year old slugger is a great idea though - but I wouldn't empty a farm system for somebody who has to play a corner. (by empty a farm, Boegarts + more blue chippers)

Bullpen will always be a rotating audition - which is the way it should be. Breslow obviously is the lowest probability to repeat his performance (this is where the strikeout numbers are useful) - although by definition all relievers are high risk for repeating performance. Uehara is the safest bet, although he has been a bit less homer prone than his career numbers indicate - his location is extraordinary and he gets a lot of swing and miss. Miller will help them when he returns. Bailey (who was inconsistent anyway) and Hanrahan (who looked like he couldn't really be a great reliever anyway) I am less certain about. Britton has the potential for a larger role - as does De La Rosa (if he can't start), Del Torre whomever. Just keep running live arms through and see what clicks.

Oh, LF matters a ton - that's why Brock is VERY overrated historically (his numbers make a possible HoF CF, but not at all the case as a full time LF) ... Henderson playing LF is what holds him back from the very top of "greatest ever" lists (though he is on any credible Top 15 list or so). But Henderson's greatness on offense more than held up for his position, year after year. Ellsbury is a good on base guy at his best - but not hitting the >.400 mark regularly. I don't bash his power numbers, you'd see that Rickey's numbers were all over the map homerunwise as well. But Rickey's production is the sort of thing Ellsbury has to boost his game to if he expects to maintain an all-star-ish level of production when he moves to a corner position.

I'd look away from the OPS for Will - he'll hit the ball hard. But if we can get an OBP at something acceptable, .320-.330 or so (league average, slightly above). Preferably with a decent number of unintentional walks to go with it. Boegarts is still very much an option here - I doubt this is the final verdict, Farrell said as much yesterday.

If he repeated his 2013 numbers over the next 6 years, it would justify the contract - the resume is fairly thin for producing 2011/2013 level horsepower. The stolen base numbers are interesting but not that important (Ellsbury's 2013 is better than virtually any Lou Brock season, SBs or not). For me the question is whether he can play a good CF for the next 5 years, and if he can hit enough to carry a corner position if he can't. Odds are against him on both - but I'm a fan. Rickey Henderson held his value into old age - but he was an extraordinary hitter, just a different level of offensive force (and that is not at all a dig against Ellsbury).

Difference between the two is - well WMB is a proven okay defender there. They both have power, and both hit for roughly the same batting average. There is a good chance WMB will hit better here than Boegarts would have. But Boegarts would have still been plenty competitive in terms of actually not making outs ... basically a .270/.300 sort of slash line vs a .240/.330 sort of one. I hope the tour in the minors helped Middlebrooks - but pitch recognition is usually born, not made. Guys allergic to walk, very rarely shake that allergy. But there is no reason he can't be a league average 3B. I would have chosen Boegarts, but I get it - and I don't think this is a final verdict on the matter. Remember, Boegarts can be on the playoff roster - no matter when he comes up (due to the Hanrahan, Bailey, Miller and Kalish injuries). So the pressure to bring him in August was never really there.

I think Boegarts made it a hard decision. But this is the safer option - and certainly still an upgrade over Snyder's corpse.

Just missed a spot - yuck. On the bright side, between Lester's pretty good outing last night - can afford to throw the bullpen at today.

Fly ball pitcher - it happens ... but yeah, he has a good contract, good to have back next season

Snyder's days are clearly numbered. Holt's job is safe - there is no other remotely qualified "utility infielder" on the roster. If they were going to promote Middlebrooks, I think they would have already done it. They still might - but I think the organization is trying to find a way to make the Boegarts promotion happen without too much pressure on him.

If there is a combination of pitching slump and serious injury problems - and a team going 22-2, there is some real trouble. That's a lot of "ifs" but it's what makes this thing fun. After all 2011 was really maybe 5% fried chicken and 95% team turning into a MASH unit.

McCann's durability for the future is a very serious concern. Big reason the Red Sox have invested so heavily in catchers has just been the reality of finding one for a long term. Just a really tough gig to hold. To Salty's credit, he has made himself a non-awful receiver/defensive catcher and a legitimate 2-3 win sort of player. Given the rock bottom replacement level of the position - he is as good a reasonable alternative as there is.

The question Boegarts staying at short I think is really related to his size (6'3" 174 lbs) and his age (20). That is a frame that can still fill out and get really powerful. Can a 6'3", 190 lb guy be able to stick at SS to a reasonable degree? The industry consensus has shifted last couple of years from "no way" to somewhere between "maybe" and "probably". But for a guy with his size and his potential to get bigger, it's a very reasonable question to ask.

Speed is a quality - but 22 infield hits requires luck and speed, hitting the ball into some random dead spot on the infield. His .480 BABIP, that's just basic math. The idea that half of the balls he hit found holes is something which was not going to last - it hardly lasts for anybody. I had an open mind that there was a scouting related result here - that he got better at the plate. But really watching him it was hard to say that. He was not squaring up balls appreciably better. And there is ZERO evidence in his career record that he could be anything but a "well at least he's not killing you" hitter. He's a wizard with the glove and on a team like Detroit (or Boston) he could just soak up ground balls while being a glorified pitcher at the plate. But there is not a .300 hitter there. There is not a .280 hitter there, and there is certainly not a .700 OPS guy there. If Detroit got his defense and a .260/.300/.350 slash line they'd be doing backflips.

His struggles in 2011 were related to command. By 2012, his stuff had suffered and has not recovered. The move to the rotation correlated with just less effective pitches. A 5 mph drop in velo? Yuck!

Probably not much interesting - although bullpen arms are always in play ...

Aside from exposing him to waivers, not really. I suspect they'd like to see if a team would at least offer them a handful of magic beans or something first.

True. Forgot that option was still there.

There is definitely a severe anti-pitcher bias in the MVP for the reasons you cite ... although that clearly violates the rules that voters get. Ellsbury this year is the best CF in the American League not named Mike Trout. And that is a very worthy guy. His 2011 - I'd have given him the MVP, though Verlander was a great choice and Ellsbury had to take the fall for the Red Sox September injury-palooza. 30 is not too bad an age for a good athlete, but so much of his value is in his defense and legs. Can he hit to carry a corner position if he loses a step. It's possible, but not a percentage play. It's not that he won't have speed in 5 years - it's that he cannot play CF anymore and have to shift to a position with a much higher offensive "Mendoza line". If he had more than one season like 2011 and more than two seasons like 2011/2013 and if he was 28 entering the free agent market instead of 30, we'd be having a different discussion. Ellsbury's next team is probably not buying a ton of Ellsbury's physical/performance prime years. That is the interesting wager. I am with you - the 2013 version of Ellsbury is absolutely an $18-20M player. But Ellsbury's age 30-34 seasons being those sorts of seasons seems very unlikely from here.

Another complicating factor with Boegarts is getting him onto the 40-man roster ... expect THAT to happen before August 31. Because of the season ending injuries to Bailey, Kalish, Hanrahan, Miller - up to 4 September callups can be on the playoff roster. But they have to be on the 40-man first.

Plenty of time to bring up Boegarts or Middlebrooks - and most likely when nobody is looking. Trip was a good chance to do it, but not exactly shocked.

Current standings of consequence: Red Sox 70-46 Tigers 67-45 Athletics 64-49 Rays 66-47 (WC1, 2.5 GB in division) Rangers 65-50 (WC2, 0 GB in division) Orioles 63-51 (1.5 GB of WC2) Guardians 62-52 (2.5 GB of WC2, 6 GB in division) Royals 58-53 (5 GB of WC2) Yankees 57-56 (7 GB of WC2) As we have seen "anything" is possible - if a team rips off a 22-2 stretch, this is all a moot point. But playing the percentages - Royals and Yankees might just have too much work to do between games behind and "teams to hop over". It's whether Baltimore or Cleveland can catch Texas. (I think the TB/Boston loser is pretty probable for a WC spot no matter what)

Bradley was overmatched in his tour here - but he also had almost no experience above single-A. His spring was such a phenomenon that it was hard to ignore, but such a fluke that his slow start was sort of predestined. That said, his pitch recognition and approach are 10-year veteran level already ... he knows what is a strike, he just needs more experience hitting big league junk. He has been very good in the minors - and his return tours to the bigs have been solid. Can Bradley next season hit .250 as a 24 year old? We know HIS .250 will actually come with more meat than an Iglesias for instance - more power potential (though not amazing) and a legitimately good ability to get on base. Take a .340 OBP with a plus-level centerfield? That is a legitimate big league starter, and still with a few more years of growth/prime left.

His upside is not established theoretically ... but going from his performance at every level of baseball he has tried. He has been a poor hitter from his time in the farm to now. It's ok to project that going forward with improvement - .260 at the bigs would be an improvement over what he has shown, couple months of BABIP good fortune aside.

Well September 2011 could also be a case of small sample size theater. And it does not explain the actual drop in velocity - his STUFF took a step backwards, and that is the real thing. The velocity he lost trying to stretch himself out has not really returned meaningfully.