sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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1. Who cares? 2. Really it is about who does it matter to the most? I think Porcello as a hat tip to his remarkable turnaround.
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ERod was one of their four best starters by the end of last season - he is a stock you buy. The numbers problem is solveable in more sensible ways.
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It also would be a lesser pick anyway
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WAR is a counting stat - so bulk matters. It definitely is not a be-all and end-all, but nobody said it was. It is an excellent starting point for identifying player value though. fWAR is probably a better metric to evaluate future performance, while bWAR might be better for awards and such.
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Espinoza could bust - but he has an immense ceiling. And ceiling is what a team like the Red Sox have their farm system for. Anderson was a clear bust - although I am not sure the industry (or the Sox) would value that sort of player to the same degree anymore. The Red Sox philosophy the past several years - get good athletes, with an emphasis on up the middle - is a strong idea - bet on the athlete. Sometimes it really works (Betts), sometimes it works a little (Middlebrooks) and others it doesn't. I don't think Anderson really fit that dossier.
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but even then, the kid was on strict pitch and hitter counts - you're not going to see a kid that young turn around 100 IP very often
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I think the rotation will be better - it might not be that much better than ours was as the season ended ... but the consistency will just be a lot better. Sale, Price and Porcello are proven stocks - I expect Porcello to regress, but all of them have been extremely reliable bets to crank out 7+ solid to spectacular innings a night. Even on most of Price's crappy starts - he could persevere past the "soft underbelly of the pitching staff" stage of the game. Rodriguez' ceiling is every bit those three guys and (given his age) there is a good chance he will find more consistency where the starts look more like his appearances against Baltimore and Oakland than the garbage outings. The ceiling for the rotation might not have improved all that much - but the floor is much much higher. That probably describes the team at large.
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He was a guy the Sox needed at the time. Iglesias was a luxury considering Drew was a pretty good SS. Iglesias at the time of the trade had a comically high BABIP IIRC which invited skepticism. But Iglesias has panned out to the degree he can, an otherworldy defender who can put up an empty .270 and allow his glove to play. Peavy helped during the marathon - even if he was less helpful going after the actual trophy.
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I think there are some questions about his actual gamecalling and being a pitcher whisperer the way Varitek often was. (at least by the pitchers' testimony) Some of that comes with experience of course - but the staff ERA only stabilized after Leon took over full time. I am certainly not putting all of that on the catcher's shoulders - but it is a fair place to look.
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I think that almost no pitcher could do that anymore - I mean you get the odd Urias maybe ... but the extreme caution with overworking guys, orgs I think will never feel guilty not pushing pitchers aggressively (at least among projected starters)
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Devers is one of those whose statistical performance is a little hard to go on entirely - he was pretty good after a slow start as one of the youngest regulars in high-A, and next year he will be one of the youngest regulars in AA. I mean he will be in Portland at a younger age than Benintendi. He is being moved slow, but with darn good reason. If Dombrowski deals Buchholz or Pomeranz for example, the test is whether he can get a good prospect - or at least a toolsy one. If the org's emphasis on bringing in great athletes continues, I'll have more comfort on this level.
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Devastated is a bit much. The Top 10 is thinner than it has been - but the Red Sox had an uncommonly strong one. They still have significant star ceiling in the top 5. Now the challenge is to replenish - the new international signing rules will make it difficult - although pool space can be traded. The Red Sox will have to have keen eyes for interesting signability picks. Do the Red Sox still have the scouting that they had before to make the difficult talent and character calls. (like the one which got Mookie Betts in the 5th round) You have to be happy with the moves I think - the team has a significant window to do something special ... but having a core of homegrown stars is cool, and I'd still like to have a steady source of that. Dombrowski has built good farm systems also - ultimately whether he does is Henry's call.
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I would have understood - but I am very bullish on him ... we complain about not having young stud sort of starting pitching, he is tracking very nicely in that direction.
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Me too (also in VA) - have not surrendered to the big coat yet, but it was hard
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I think the new CBA fixes this. The Type A/B system was flawed in that how do you determine that. The QO system is more sensible than that - but still FA should be separate from the draft.
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He is on a one year deal and they signed Ian Desmond who has not position to play
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No way - and he has a QO on him iirc. If you want to get a past prime bat - offer the Rox a sack of potatoes for Carlos Gonzalez who only has a year attached to him.
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Agreed - the big point is this ... some subset of those guys should work out because they all have quality stuff. The foolishness is betting on any particular set of pitchers as the answer.
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Kimbrel's command got spotty, but he was striking out as many as ever. The bet is he will be fine - limited value because he is not that flexible (but you knew that when you traded for him). The Thornburg move allows them to ease back Carson Smith. Bringing back Abad makes sense to me - realistically you want to keep as many pitchers who could be good. The history of bullpen dynamics shows that some of these guys will stink and some won't. Numbers address that risk.
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The Cubs are collecting options. Wade Davis, Uehara, Carl Edwards Jr ... there are very very few relievers you plug and play and feel like you are done. 2004 Foulke was one of those pitchers and he fell to pieces after that. Thornburg made Uehara a luxury - but again, the best way to build a bullpen is to amass guys with bat-missing stuff and let them sort it out.
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I am not saying DD has destroyed this team's future. I don't know. It is a fair question to ask. I like all the moves - and if you push major chips, it's for Chris Sale (as opposed to say any closer or Pomeranz). It's fun for our kids to be the core - and ultimately the better way to keep the window of opportunity open for a long time. But that is not DD's timeline anyway - and hey, we have a chance to win it all know. Acknowledging injuries, and just the fact that baseball is fluky - we've maximized our chances to do something special. The ChiSox are going to stink, but with some direction - and it is always fun to see guys on the ground floor. It was one of the charms of our 2016 team, to see the kids blossom.
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they should get paid - they should not be guaranteed 5 years. Giants won 3 world series in 6 years with 3 different closers. There is so much darn luck that throwing bodies at it is just a better bet.
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Year to year volatility, the relative low cost to find approximate production. That they are all starters who failed. And either way, it is the bet on a reliever to hold 5 years of performance is forever dicey
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It is harder to generate chances (and more controllable). This is baseball, a GM cannot actually win the World Series ... take the team to the water and see what happens.
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Crazy deal - reliever volatility has not changed. Miller could also just go up in smoke very easily - the reasons he cannot reasonably start again are still there. Chapman could be very good - but it is very hard for a 1-inning pitcher to deliver that sort of value. Ian Desmond to the Rockies has clinched the "worst deal of the offseason" prize. This is on the podium.