sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Yes - but not for anything the Red Sox would be willing to give up. Between the trades and the graduations - the Sox system is very top heavy.
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If he had more projectable swing, this would be evident
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Aluminum bat in a shaky conference ... have to lean on more than the numbers there. Travis swing seems more built for line drive than getting the backspin you'd want from a power hitter. Now every so often there is a Goldschmidt or Pedroia who just confound scouts - but I think Travis has the sort of swing which looks like 15 HR sort of thing, which is fine.
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And minor leaguers aren't equal - he might have been worth 4 if none of them were major league-probable, or all guys with "extra guy, maybe" sort of view.
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I do think the Moneyball thing vis a vis amateur scouting was disproven significantly. The problem with waiting for college and looking at stats too hard became a matter of limiting the upside pool. The Blue Jays under Ricciardi in particular were not getting enough star power into their system by looking too much at amateur stats (especially in high school where competition varies so wildly). It put them behind the curve on projectable high school talent - which is where a lot of your true star upside comes from. Note Beane has reversed course there for sure. What Moneyball did more than anything was to put "approach" on the table as a scoutable trait - something more born than made.
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Any scout that tells you some player is the next ____________ is garbage. THAT is hype. Soxprospects does not do that. They do a good job looking at tools, age, performance and putting some probability down. Remember, prospects are about probability and upside - with a bit of a bias towards upside (because that is just harder to find). They do a good job identifying best case scenario and why it could/couldn't happen. For instance, Devers is in AAA (and on his small sample size he does not look overwhelmed) as a 20 year old - that is a massive good sign for his future. Just like how in high school, the 14 year old who is getting regular minutes on the varsity is where you look for future stardom. Sam Travis on the other hand - from the jump - was a college 1B. The upside is inherently not great, but the probability is a little higher. Travis seems to be tracking there - no a star, but a perfectly good starter.
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A lot of the places are professional scouts - they just aren't working for a team ... as Law has pointed out, scout is frankly kind of a crappy lifestyle ... like most lower level jobs in baseball ops - lots of travel, low pay. If you are a guy with some decent scouting chops - and want to have a family, working for a publication is often a healthier lifestyle.
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Law is right in general here - but even he will point out there are a couple of very specific times where it makes sense to get the sacrifice ... like 1st and 2nd, nobody out in the bottom of the 9th ... where exactly one run is all that matters. But that occasion (where one run is really all you care about) is pretty infrequent.
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A slump!!! Oh noes!!
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I mean Travis looks like he could have 15 HR power - not 30 ... so he's not Otis Nixon out there, but I don't see a slugger in him. More like a working-class Mark Grace or something
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very very rare ... there you go. And again, bunting for a hit is totally cool
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Bunting is a perfectly legitimate way to try to get a hit. But sacrificing? In short, the only time it's a good idea is if you only really need one run - where the value of the second run is nil ... that situation is very very rare
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or to get a hit ... or in a few specific late game spots
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That was known for over a year - and maybe last year was a bump with that in mind. But I think if Betts was getting MVP buzz again, things would perk up more. The team has had a lot of - negativity is the wrong word - but yes it feels less satisfying because the talent has largely played to okay versions of themselves. (aside from Sale)
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or you just go all-in with Travis - there might not be much power there ... but defense is fine and he has gotten on base in his short career.
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Payroll and ticket prices have some correlation but they are independent decisions - after all if a team rebuilds, nobody is getting money back. Now, fortunately, fan pressure and owner ego allows the team to spend a lot of money. But it is not a necessary relationship. The Red Sox themselves are in a special position with very little stadium debt (basically debt from renovations) and the ability to more or less charge any price. Even now, a small reduction in ticket sales is probably offset by any price increases and whatnot. Ultimately the fans are a bit spoiled - which is fine. And the team, while in first, only has had Sale have an extraordinary season.
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Harrison is a good player. Not worth Devers - maybe not Groome either - though there is the variability associated with pitchers that always makes them a tad easier to be bearish about. I like Lowrie too - for many of the same reasons, though he is much more injury prone. But the idea is to get someone who can play 3B but whose bat can play in the lineup if the Sox want to call up Devers.
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Of the gettable names Josh Harrison is probably the best one ... again, can move around the field if you want to bring up Devers and he can be a righthanded caddy for both corner infield spots. Lowrie is worthwhile also - Freese and Nunez less so.
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you take that return for miller (and chapman) every day of the week ... a team that's not in the chase has no use for 8 figure relievers
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Josh Harrison is an intriguing choice also - he won't help with power but consistency and a decent bat with some speed and again, allows the Red Sox freedom to promote or not promote Devers. He can play 3B and probably 1B.
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I think a Wilmer Flores makes sense at the deadline among names being sniffed around - who can play 3B or 1B ... and maybe having that flexibility is what we need here. This allows management to not be backed into a Devers promotion ... but does not block him either. He is not super exciting - but neither is anybody else.
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there is a stronger correlation with OBP - but the two are strongly correlated with each other (since you need singles to generate a good OBP and that helps slugging too). And it makes sense on the fringes - a SLG of 1.000 could still be retired (a homerun and 3 outs). An OBP of 1.000 means nobody is getting retired. More simply, conceptually, outs are baseball's clock ... and not getting out is the fundamental goal of an at-bat. There are other goals too, but that is the bedrock one.
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No - OPS is mathematically incorrect (perfect SLG is 4.000, perfect OBP is 1.000 ... OBP is much more significant for run creation) ... WAR is normalized. WAR's issue (and there are in reality 32 formulae for WAR, the 2 publicly available and whatever the teams do internally) comes with inputs. WAR sums everything measurable a player does on the field - that is pretty straightforward. Complex in calculation, intuitively pretty simple. Pitcher WAR is a little more complicated than that.
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There might be some pressing. I also think that sometimes you just need something good to happen - really what has happened is the players have all been - not bad, but sort of in the 40-50th percentile of their expected outcomes when you'd like it to have at least a couple blossom a bit more.
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I am worried for sure - 3B has been a sinkhole. There have not been enough homeruns. Kids that age (and responding to another post - the age matters more here than the experience per se) are expected to get better - and unfortunately that has not happened enough. Combine that with Ramirez largely being blah and there you have it. You can absorb's Ortiz' loss if you get increases from the other spots - and that has not happened in the power department. It is weird that this team has won by being a pitching and defense team mostly - but there you go. They absolutely need another corner bat.