FredLynn
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Everything posted by FredLynn
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Seems FIP isn't particularly useful then. Its clear that which ballpark you play in makes a big difference. For me ERA+ is better than FIP. The park matters.
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But they (the fans) ARE tolerating it. They keep showing up at the park and buying Sox paraphernalia. Gray is the modern day dandelion. Even some here are thinking he's a rose. You and I are not buying it. We are calling it what it is: inadequate.
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Year after year Henry has opted not to spend the money and/or prospects to put his team in the best possible position to win. For several years at the TD they have equivocated, being vanilla buyers but not sellers. Seems he should make up his mind: either go for it or sell and plan for next year. Same thing is happening this offseason so far with the signing of Gray. If Gray was that good St L would not have given the Sox $20m to take him off their hands for Fitts and a prospect. He is absolutely NOT what the team needed, though he will help a bit. I think management will take the same approach with acquiring the bats they need-its how they operate. They sign a decent player and try to pass him off as a rose, all the while professing "interest" in the better players. I would be absolutely shocked if we got Schwarber, KMarte, or Alonso or the equivalent. My guess is that we will get Bregman and some player of minor usefulness. I would bet on it. Any takers?
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Cease had a good reputation but I didn’t check his stats to confirm it. Turns out he’s not as good as I thought. That said, nothing is changed about Gray. He’s still not the answer for our #2 spot to complement Crochet. It’s highly likely that Breslow will make some sort of excuse for why he again failed to get a better pitcher. Valdez or Suarez would fit the bill. Both are better than Gray and are available I believe. Other pitchers are available by trade. The track record for this franchise is to consistently try to do it on the cheap. Wanna make a small wager that we won’t sign a top FA (or trade for one) power hitter like Schwarber or Alonso?
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Does FIP account for which park HRs are surrendered in? It’s clear that some parks are more HR friendly than other. And the formula uses a “constant” that changes from year to year. A constant should always be the same-like the speed of light. Here’s the definition of “constant”: ”a situation or state of affairs that does not change.” I prefer using just ERA or ERA+. Usually the simplest solution is best. Earned runs per nine innings or earned runs per 9 with a fudge factor for the kind of park a pitcher starts around half his games in. The bottom line is that Gray will be a good addition to the pitching staff, most likely, but he is clearly not the #2 SP we need. I think we are in agreement here. He’s probably an #3 at best. We both doubt they’ll get a better pitcher to slot in between Crochet and Gray.. And given the way this franchise has operated in the past I don’t think we will get our #2. You wrote yourself that you were afraid this is the final SP roster. I agree. I also doubt we will get the power bat at a corner IF position we need. Henry won’t pay up.
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From an article on this forum. Its spot on. Gray is OK, but he doesn't fill any of the major needs on this team: Gray profiles as a number three starter at this point in his career. In 2025, he posted a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate to go along with his 3.6 fWAR. He logged 180.2 innings over 32 games. That ERA is less than desirable and would have him ranked fourth on the Red Sox among starters who threw at least 20 games last season.
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And if it happens that the needs of the team are met (getting a solid #2 SP and a power hitting IF not named Bregman) then I will agree that Breslow is serious about going all in. Until then the team is not complete. And I agree: Gray isn't going to be their last pitcher signed. They will find some other rehabbing second rate guy to take a chance on, maybe a RP.
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We needed a solid #2 last year at the TD. That hasn't changed. Breslow apologized for not succeeding in meeting the needs of the team and the Boston sports writers were all over him for his abject failure, a failure that continues to this day. Gray is absolutely NOT the guy we need as a 2. He is fine if he is a 3-4 SP, but not in the role of a 2. As Moon wrote here this is likely the final SP roster and its again deficient. Its just the way the team operates-on the cheap.
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Oh-they haven’t said it yet. But they will. It’s how they operate.
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There’s nothing wrong with Bregman as a COMPLIMENTARY PIECE. But as last year proved he wasn’t enough. We need someone in ADDITION to Bregman. Think they’ll spend the money to get him? Or will they again claim they “really tried” as they did with Ryan at the TD last year.
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Framber Valdez is a better pitcher than Gray. The numbers prove it. I suggested a couple of better pitchers than Gray or Cease. There are no doubt others . Not my job to find them. If management can’t put together a competitive team they are rightfully open to criticism.
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We can do better than either one. You do know that there is virtually no chance the team will get Schwarber or Alonso, right? They’ll sign Bregman again and tell us they had “significant interest” in the better players. SSDD
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Framber Valdez Ranger Suarez Why not sign one of these guys? Both are better than the excuse for a #2 they are trying to pass off as a legitimate 2 . Real Sox fans aren’t that dumb. The bottom line is that Gray doesn’t cut it as a #2. It’s the job of management to address the needs of the team and like in the previous years they are trying to take a shortcut. We aren’t buying it.
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Please show me the post where I said I wanted Cease signed instead of Gray. We can do better than either one.
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I have said what I want over and over again. Just to refresh your memory, I want a bona fide #2 SP. Gray isn’t that guy. It’s up to management to find him. Again: ”While Gray is not the number twostarter fans have dreamed of pairing with ace Garrett Crochet, he is a dependable arm for a rotation” perfectly stated.
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Show me where I said Cease is better than Gray. Good luck! I said Cease signed with the Jays. I want someone better than both of them.
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This sums it up nicely. Very accurate: ”While Gray is not the number two starter fans have dreamed of pairing with ace Garrett Crochet, he is a dependable arm for a rotation” From an article on this forum ….
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He surrendered over four runs per NINE INNINGS. I know what ERA means. And the other metrics-which are calculated based on some assumptions. ERA is based strictly on numbers, not calculations and assumptions. It’s a better metric for that reason. Gray isn’t a #2 SP. He’s a shortcut, a weed being passed off as a rose. You watch: they’ll do the same thing with our need for a bat. This teams management stinks.
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They don’t need a #2 for half the season. They need one for the whole season.
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Time will tell. My guess is that he’ll end up in the 4.50 ERA range and spend a significant amount of time on the IL. Thats what happens when the team (AGAIN) tries to pass off a second rate player as a rose. Sox fans aren’t that stupid.
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It’s really pretty basic. On average he allowed over 4 runs per game. Maybe he’ll be an upgrade but he’s definitely not the #2 SP we still need.
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Sure. It’s early. Think they will sign Schwarber or Alonso? Or will they resign Bregman and tell us it’s all roses….
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The number is the number.
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Maybe because of the track record this team has whereby they consistently try to do things on the cheap?
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I do. It’s in the link I sent you. Just because it doesn’t agree with your opinion doesn’t mean it’s not true.