Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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You're just not grasping the facts here. The Red Sox are paying $17 mill, so the cost of keeping him was $10 mill.
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Hypothetical question: if Sam Kennedy said that one of the biggest reasons they traded Sale was to cut $10 million from the payroll, would that change some opinions of how the move is viewed?
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Sale also only had one guaranteed year left.
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It's not like Giolito was a rock solid no doubt choice after the horror show he put on in the second half last year.
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You're just not following what I'm saying at all. I've never said it was about counting on him. It was about having little to lose and maybe plenty to gain by keeping him.
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Tyler Glasnow has a pretty bad injury history too, but the Dodgers traded for him and paid him $136 million. Mainly because of his proven potential. Certainly not because of his record of durability. Glasnow's innings the last 4-5 years look remarkably similar to Sale's...
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They could easily have kept Sale and signed Giolito. The more the merrier. It was stupid subtracting a guy who still had the potential to contribute high end results, all to save $10 million and pick up a prospect.
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I see the same numbers as moon does on Fangraphs. -0.2 and -0.4.
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Kluber would have been acceptable as a depth signing. The problem was he was the only signing. That's what made it into a disaster. Sale was virtually a sunk cost situation. Totally different.
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These are tough calls. The earlier you sign them the cheaper, but there's also the chance they never live up.
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The only thing is that when he did pitch, he still pitched pretty well. He showed that the ability was still there. That's why the Braves decided to take a shot. To me it's a tale of two teams. One of them acting like a big market team trying to win, the other continuing to kick it down the road in spite of the full throttle ********.
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And Smith has been awful in every area. I don't see where there's a lot to lose.
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Correct. I assume they had already decided to sign Gioloto. The $10 million reduction on Sale made it fit into the payroll budget. Slammin' Sam Kennedy told us the payroll would be lower this year. It was one of the times he was being honest.
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Nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition, either. Sale had a 2.1 fWAR last year in 102 innings. You knew that, right? If the Red Sox didn't think there was any chance of him coming back like this, they're idiots.
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When you're cherry picking examples you can find both. When you're doing a global evaluation it can't be both. I'm pretty sure you realize that.
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And that's what pisses me off about this trade - I think trimming some money had a lot to do with it. A big market team that wants to win would hold onto Sale and hope for the best, and they'd spend to get another right handed bat.
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There are also teams like the A's and Pirates and Marlins that haven't made many postseasons in a while. The Rays are basically the one exception. The overall correlation between spending and winning is real.
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Just replace Smith with Kavadas and keep Cooper. That's what moon's been saying. I already said Dalbec is done. We didn't get Smith and Cooper on a package deal.
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Any reply on the Yankees and Dodgers point?
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The truth is usually somewhere in between.
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Spending doesn't guarantee anything, it also takes smarts and luck. But when was the last time a bottom 5 payroll team won a ring? The Yankees and Dodgers are the 2 richest teams and they've been making the playoffs just about every year. The correlation is real, it's just not guaranteed.
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The team is 10-14 in May, averaging less than 4 runs a game. Smith and Cooper are OPSing about .550. It really and truly can't get much worse. And even if it does, so what. 2024 doesn't matter. Maybe Kavadas hits a few long balls and gives the fans something.
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On a team with little to lose.
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Kavadas's Worcester numbers look great. A very nice K/BB ratio. Maybe they don't put much stock in Worcester numbers. I'm at the point that I'm thinking they don't have much to lose. We could see it happen some time soon.
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Cooper and Smith are mediocre at best. Dalbec is done. The only real question is why they don't want to promote Kavadas. He's got power against RH pitching. There are holes everywhere else in his game. Maybe they think he's got no better chance than Dalbec of producing.
