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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    We can probably say the same about Tanner Houck. Should we trade him too?
  2. Bellhorn04
    OK, but identifying the exact peak doesn't really tell us much about the precise rate of decline. Can you tell us exactly how much speed Duran will lose over the next 5 years?
  3. Bellhorn04
    Hmmm, well, to some ears "ain't much" sure sounds like a colorful way of saying zero. Kind of like Clint Eastwood's line "Dyin' ain't much of a livin', boy." 😁
  4. Bellhorn04
    If we count 2020 as a season, they were under in 2020 and 2021. People tend to forget that because 2021 turned out good LOL
  5. Bellhorn04
    When he was with the Red Sox, did he trade one of our best players for an aging superstar? This part seems a little unfair to me.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Did they make him an offer or not?
  7. Bellhorn04
    A couple more points: 1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there. 2) Every other team is aware of the same possibility. Every other team has the same data and plenty of guys to analyze it.
  8. Bellhorn04
    No, that's not really the point. I'm questioning the scientific validity of the "speed goes early" statement. This is not about talent, it's strictly about the Point A to Point B part...
  9. Bellhorn04
    I think they valued him. But as with many other free agents in recent offseasons, they just weren't willing to pay what it took to sign the player. What's been especially frustrating is that many of these free agents signed very reasonable deals. We're not talking about the big splash signings. We're talking about tight, tight budgets for the third wealthiest team in the game.
  10. Bellhorn04
    "As we saw with Jacoby Ellsbury, speed is the first thing to go for baseball players." Ellsbury seems to be the automatic comp for Duran. I get it - Ellsbury played for us not long ago, he was an outfielder, he was really fast. But is it really true that speed goes early as a general scientific principle? Rickey Henderson led the majors in stolen bases at age 39. Lou Brock led the majors in stolen bases at age 35. Both these two continued to be speed demons until way past the "wrong side of 30." So I'm disputing the accuracy of that statement.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Why do you take everything so literally and seriously when you're a joker yourself?
  12. Bellhorn04
    It was dumb. Sale's innings were clearly trending back upward. You can see that on a graph. 😄
  13. Bellhorn04
    I firmly believe a day will come when you actually grow tired of recapitulating Sale's innings pitched from recent years, but I sense that day may be a ways off yet. 😁
  14. Bellhorn04
    Having teams to root against isn't always the worst thing. What last year's WS between Texas and Arizona provoked was mostly indifference.
  15. Bellhorn04
    OK, but maybe there is a touch of irony in the Sox dispatching Sale due to injury/age concerns and then signing Hendriks...
  16. Bellhorn04
    I'll take the Mets over the Dodgers, mainly because their rotation is in better shape. And yes they do have some mojo going.
  17. Bellhorn04
    I can't personally confirm how bad Wong is because I don't watch enough game action, but there is definitely a growing consensus that his defense is a huge problem.
  18. Bellhorn04
    MLB's crapshoot playoff system kind of dictates that all you can do is build a team that's good enough to make the playoffs. No matter how strong of a team you build, you're not immune from getting crapshot in October.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Maybe now Dave will get a chance to show if he can dig his way out of it, which he didn't get with the Sox.
  20. Bellhorn04
    notin is off and running this morning!
  21. Bellhorn04
    Close, Sherlock, it does in fact mean the hitting isn't as good as the raw numbers, and the pitching is better than the raw numbers. 😜
  22. Bellhorn04
    The Sox were 9th in runs scored this year, but they also play half their games in one of the best hitters' parks, so that has to be downgraded a bit. We were clearly just marginally above average in run production. The OPS+ numbers look nice, but somehow the whole was less than the sum of the parts. Was that because of the hitting with RISP? I'm sure that was part of it, but I think it also had to do with being #3 in baseball in Ks.
  23. Bellhorn04
    As I posted earlier in this thread: 2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement: Duran 32.8 Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year) O'Neill 16.0 (free agent) Refsnyder 9.4 Abreu 8.4 Wong 5.5 Yoshida 4.6 Hamilton 3.4 Casas 3.0 Story 0.1 Duran, Devers and O'Neill accounted for a huge share of the offense. And the 2 hitters we're talking about removing are Duran (trading him for a pitcher) and O'Neill (free agent). Plus there are health concerns with Devers and Yoshida. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but I think our offense is actually pretty thin before allowing for Anthony and Campbell. Grissom's career OPS+ is 81, BTW.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Is this a confirmed story? I thought the Yankees matched the Giants offer and that was what it took.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Is it better to know squat or to not know squat, BTW?
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