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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    I would like to see the projections for Buchholz and Masterson, and I'm even more interested in the rationale behind them. Because these two have been so up and down that to me they are almost completely unpredictable. They have been very good and they have been abysmal. Joe Kelly is also very hard to predict. Porcello should be good and I'm cautiously optimistic about Miley as well. Optimism is there, but I can't see feeling comfortable. Our depth is also a huge unknown.
  2. Bellhorn04
    I agree with a lot of that. But if the rotation fails Ben is going to be very heavily criticized in many quarters, and many of the analysts will be right there to explain the errors in judgment he made. I'm not trying to go all iortiz here about the rotation, but I have to admit I'm not feeling very comfortable about it, nor about the depth behind it. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.
  3. Bellhorn04
    One thing that people forget about Remy is in that 1978 playoff game with the Yankees, if the Red Sox had won he would have been one of the heroes. He had a sac bunt in the 6th that led to a run, he doubled in the 8th off Gossage and then he singled off Gossage in the 9th.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I am really on the fence about this starting rotation. If they're good enough to get us to the playoffs, then hats off to Cherington. But if they they're as bad as some of the naysayers believe, he's going to take a lot of heat, and I'm not sure there will be a valid defense. This rotation is his baby.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Sure doesn't take long for injuries to kick in.
  6. Bellhorn04
    I've had the same problems yesterday and today, but it seems fine right now.
  7. Bellhorn04
    OK, I get the Beckett offer thing, but I find it really hard to believe that they didn't notice that Homer Bailey signed a 6 year, $105 million extension on Feb. 19, precisely 150% of the offer to Lester, or that they wouldn't realize that Lester and his agents would feel they were being outrageously lowballed in reference to Bailey and the current market. You'd pretty much have to believe they were being buffoons.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I agree, if Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy all year the Yankees could surprise a lot of people and could certainly be in the playoffs.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Kimmi, I think the question at hand now is how the Sox specifically handled the negotiations with Lester. He was not just any free agent, because they had a big time window to deal with him, and they did make him an offer in the offseason. But in the history of big contract negotiations I don't think a team has ever made such a huge jump from opening offer to final offer. They ended up doubling their initial offer. That is very strange, if we're taking the position that the Red Sox 'assign values and stick to them.' I think the only way the negotiations can be looked on as systematic or methodical is if the ultimate plan was to let him go.
  10. Bellhorn04
    I agree with your last statement. I also believe that if the Sox really wanted Lester back they would have offered him at least $100 million in the offseason and come to an agreement. Compared to Sandoval and Hanley deals, though, Lester would have been a riskier play. It would have been more money and paid him up to a higher age. And pitchers are riskier to begin with. Time will tell if they made the right call.
  11. Bellhorn04
    That's called escalation, man. I learned about it in marriage counseling.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Yes, clutch pitching.
  13. Bellhorn04
    I wish the two of you would make peace, seriously. What this board needs sometimes isn't a moderator, it's a mediator.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Just wait till you check out the game threads, Kimmi. Almost every game there will be at least one move or non-move by Farrell that someone thinks is idiotic. That's true, actually.
  15. Bellhorn04
    I think it's almost a lock that Hamels gets traded. I wonder if this would do it: Kelly, Cecchini, Victorino (Sox paying some of his salary) + one more second-tier prospect.
  16. Bellhorn04
    It would be a great story if he did.
  17. Bellhorn04
    I think from now on I'll think of Victorino as 'day-to-day' even when he's playing.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Back to the oppositional thing for a moment - I forgot that they do give you a set of splits on this in Baseball-Ref. Papi's career OPS vs. teams over .500 = .909 Papi's career OPS vs. teams below .500 = .944 So there is a difference, not huge, but .035 of OPS.
  19. Bellhorn04
    What about managers and coaches choking under pressure? Grady Little, Pete Carroll?
  20. Bellhorn04
    I know I can't win this argument, Kimmi. Truth be told, I'm just trying to lose with honor.
  21. Bellhorn04
    I like the way you put that.
  22. Bellhorn04
    My point with the oppositional thing was limited to analyzing Ortiz's postseason OPS of .962. That may not seem much higher than his regular season OPS of .926, but if you consider that he's also facing better pitching in the postseason, I think you can make a reasonable case that the margin is greater.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Personally I think there may be a number of issues that haven't been fully addressed in any analytics of clutch. The one that jumps out at me is whether sufficient consideration is given to 'season leverage' vs. 'game leverage'. In other words, an at-bat in the first inning of a crucial game in September might reasonably be argued to be higher pressure than a late and close at-bat in April. I think we may see the analytics of clutch significantly revamped at some point.
  24. Bellhorn04
    I'm not really sure what you're saying. Oppositional strength is always a big factor whether it's individual or team performance, in any sport.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Well, so much for Cliff Lee thoughts. He is reporting soreness in same part of elbow as last year.
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