Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Clutch for pitchers = Curt Schilling. My methodology is admittedly very primitive. All I do is compare postseason to regular season. I'd like to know more about how regular season 'clutch situations' are determined. Is there any weight given to the importance of the game? If clutch/not clutch is a myth, how do we explain Ortiz's postseason numbers vs. Bagwell's? Small sample for Bagwell, I suppose.
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Hey, now some of those really were small samples. Here's what I think: it's impossible to be a clutch hitter all the time. Pitchers have the advantage and major league pitchers are really really good. All I'm contending is that Ortiz is more clutch than average. And Bagwell and Swisher were less clutch than average.
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There you go. Henry signs Bill James's cheques and yet he gives a plaque for clutch hitting. Case closed, I'd say.
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I think a lot of David Ortiz's numbers do bear out that he's been a clutch hitter over his career. Starting with his career postseason OPS of .962, which is higher than his regular season OPS of .926. That's not a big difference, obviously. But when you take into account the higher leverage of the games, and the higher overall caliber of the opposing pitching, I think I could come up with a formula that makes the difference a lot bigger. Then you have his absurd World Series line of 455/576/795 = 1.372 OPS.
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Are postseason numbers included in these analyses?
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2015 Spring Training Games Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to mvp 78's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Red Sox sweep, 2-1 and 1-0. So much for the big upgrades on offense! -
With your belief that 'being miserable' seeps into performance, we are at least in full agreement on the point that state of mind factors can have a major impact on how a guy plays.
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I understand. All I'm saying is, if a guy's game can be that damaged by being uncomfortable where he's playing -obviously a mental issue- I don't think it's a great stretch to also believe that some guys will be more affected than others by pressure situations. Just my opinion.
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Why? They're both external pressures that affect you psychologically, not physically.
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I don't think the two things are all that dissimilar. You believe that outside influences affected him mentally and directly impacted his performance. I don't see a big leap to believing that pressure situations and the fear of failing in them can directly impact a player's performance.
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It's hard to explain, yes, but it seems to be that certain players are not 'comfortable' in certain environments. I think it's also quite reasonable to believe that certain players are less 'comfortable' than others in certain game situations.
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So how do we explain things like Carl Crawford's inability to play in Boston? Or Daniel Bard losing the ability to throw the ball over the plate? The human psyche is a complex thing.
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To me the whole clutch/choke thing falls into the area of intangibles, like 'a catcher who calls a good game makes a big difference' or 'a good manager makes a big difference.' These have also proven to be extremely difficult assertions to quantify.
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All points taken.
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So Kimmi, if there is no proof, there is also no disproof, and can we really make positive assertions like 'Those players who we often consider to be clutch aren't really clutch.'?
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My beef is that when you do find what seems to be a genuine example of someone who has underperformed in 'the clutch', it gets thrown out on the grounds of small sample sizes. My preference is to use postseason games vs. regular season games, because it's very simple, for one thing. So I try to use Bagwell and Swisher, who have huge gaps in postseason vs. regular season numbers, and it gets tossed on the 'small sample size' argument. Well, okay, yes, postseason samples are small, comparatively speaking, but how will we ever have a big enough sample? That's when the old schooler in me understands some of the frustration with the stat people.
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According to Silverman of Herald, Betts and Castillo will be competing for Opening Day CF. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/03/mookie_betts_rusney_castillo_in_middle_of_true_outfield
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LOL Or if any of his children or grandchildren live in Micronesia?
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Going back to Napoli's career stats with a runner at third, less than 2 outs: It's 252 plate appearances. 52 hits-10 HR, 19 2B, 23 1B 27 sac flies 35 walks 50 strikeouts Napoli strikes out fewer times in those situations than he does in general. He has a better ratio of walks to strikeouts in those situations than he does in general. What I would ask is, where is the evidence that in those situations Napoli isn't using a situational approach, and where's the evidence that he's only swinging for the fences?
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Jeez, take it easy with the barrage of questions. I already said I couldn't explain it and threw a guess out there.
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I don't see how it's the same thing as clutch. Pitchers pitch differently in different situations, that's all I'm saying.
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a) It's pure speculation that it could be better. Mike Napoli is a veteran with an .850 OPS. I think he knows what he's doing better than we do. I think that should be obvious, really. I can't explain it. Maybe he just takes advantage of the way he's pitched in those situations a little more.
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To me, it indicates that his approach in those situations has worked just fine over his career.
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For his career, with a runner on third and less than 2 outs, Napoli has hit 278/357/540 for an OPS of 897, 47 points higher than his overall OPS of 850.
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I understand what you're saying, of course. But I think a guy like Napoli is a smart veteran hitter and if he tried a different approach it could mess him up. I think he knows what's good for him a lot better than we do. And I don't think he swings for the fences all the time either. I've seen him dump plenty of bloopers for singles.
