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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    He didn't suck when he played. He just didn't play enough.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Allen Craig really falls into a special category of non-roster invitees, where they're paying him 9 million this year and 11 million next year.
  3. Bellhorn04
    I think it's fine to be a homer, as long as you're not a blind homer.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I can see a case for the Sox being projected for 90 wins or so. Their 2015 Pythagorean record was 81-81. I think Price and the bullpen upgrades add about 9 wins on paper.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Oh no, not again.
  6. Bellhorn04
    My statements probably were irrelevant to your simplistic and obvious statement that speed disrupts defense. It just so happens that I'm interested in all the pros and cons and nuances of the running game, not just that one simplistic and obvious concept. Hopefully that clears up any further misunderstandings.
  7. Bellhorn04
    I never made that argument. Your reading comprehension is terrible.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I've always thought that Roberts's stolen base, while a great play, has been blown out of proportion just a bit. The reason I say that is that you don't hear about Bill Mueller's RBI single nearly as much. That was at least as great a play.
  9. Bellhorn04
    You're right. He was no good at throwing out base runners, and other teams disrupted the crap out of us when he was behind the plate.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Here's a question about speed using a guy who was mentioned here just a little while ago: Dave Roberts In 2004 Roberts stole 38 bases and was caught 3 times. In 2005 Roberts stole 23 bases and was caught 12 times. Did Roberts' base-stealing attempts have a positive or negative effect on his team's offense in 2004? Did Roberts' base-stealing attempts have a positive or negative effect on his team's offense in 2005? I'm 99% sure the answers are: Positive in 2004, Negative in 2005. Kimmi can help me out with this - I remember her mentioning a study that showed you have to have a high success rate on steals in order for the positive of the extra bases to outweigh the negatives of the extra outs.
  11. Bellhorn04
    By ignoring batting averages with speedy runners on base, you're taking an important part of the equation out of the equation.
  12. Bellhorn04
    I don't remember his speed doing much for us either.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Just so there's no confusion, I'm not saying speed isn't an asset or that it can't be used as a weapon, and I'm pretty sure nobody else is either. That was never the point.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Don't forget getting picked off, caught stealing and running into outs. It's not all sunshine and roses.
  15. Bellhorn04
    If we had better pitching we would have been a dynasty in the 1970's, slow-footed or not.
  16. Bellhorn04
    What about the disruption to the hitter? Are you denying that or forgetting about it?
  17. Bellhorn04
    Ah yes, one example proves the point.
  18. Bellhorn04
    No, I am not taking that position at all. Disruption to the defense is not good for the defense. But disruption to the offense is good for the defense. So the issue is, which benefit is greater? And the only way to answer that is with the empirical evidence. For that I have to refer to Kimmi.
  19. Bellhorn04
    The only explanation I can see is that they did some cherry-picking on his 2014 numbers. Here are the monthly OPS splits: Apr .564 May .865 June .750 July .799 Aug .859 Sept .550 Oct .888 (17 postseason games)
  20. Bellhorn04
    Isn't the basic point that it's a simultaneous distraction to the pitcher, the defense and the hitter?
  21. Bellhorn04
    Hanley's offensive struggles may have been a direct result of the injury he suffered playing the outfield. Manny played outfield his whole career, so he at least came to Boston with a lot of experience at the position. The Sox were forced to keep putting Hanley in the outfield even after they saw how badly he was doing, because there was no other option. And they were paying him 22 million.
  22. Bellhorn04
    The idea of putting Hanley in left is hard to defend, given the results. It was a gamble that failed in a big way.
  23. Bellhorn04
    FWIW, Headley pretty much sucked last year too, just not as much as Panda did.
  24. Bellhorn04
    The major argument I would try to make is that Price is a true elite player, with a total fWAR over his 2 most recent seasons of 12.5, whereas Sandoval's total fWAR over his 2 most recent seasons was only 5.1.
  25. Bellhorn04
    OK, just for fun, here is a list of the top 30 average fastball speeds for the year 2015, with their heights. This includes any pitcher who had 60 innings pitched or more, so obviously it brings in a lot of relievers: Aroldis Chapman 6 4 Arquimedes Caminero 6 4 Trevor Rosenthal 6 2 Kelvin Herrera 5 10 Dellin Betances 6 8 Jumbo Diaz 6 4 Nathan Eovaldi 6 2 Noah Syndergaard 6 6 Ken Giles 6 2 Blake Treinen 6 5 Jeurys Familia 6 3 Tommy Hunter 6 3 Hector Rondon 6 3 Daniel Hudson 6 3 Jose Fernandez 6 2 Wade Davis 6 5 Garrett Richards 6 3 Yordano Ventura 6 0 Jeremy Jeffress 6 0 Roberto Osuna 6 2 Gerrit Cole 6 4 Joe Kelly 6 1 Luis Garcia 6 2 Stephen Strasburg 6 4 Fernando Rodney 5 11 Kevin Gausman 6 3 Matt Harvey 6 4 Carlos Martinez 6 0 Justin Wilson 6 2 Luis Severino 6 0 The average height of the top 10 is about 6-3. The average height of the top 30 is just a shade over 6-2.
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