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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    When you get right down to it, the big tangible benefits of the Dodgers trade were unloading the contracts of Crawford (about $105 million worth) and Beckett (about $35 million worth). So we gained about $140 million. But since then we forked out $167 million to Pablo and Castillo for nothing. So the negative of Pablo/Castillo actually exceeds the positive of the Dodgers trade. That's why I don't get all that excited about the greatness of the Dodgers trade.
  2. Bellhorn04
    I could easily argue that the money we used for Porcello was money that we saved from letting Lester go, so we should really be comparing Lester and Porcello. Then there are the bad contracts for Pablo, Castillo, and to a lesser extent Hanley, which add up to the same 265 million that we saved on the Dodgers trade. The problem with advocating the greatness of this trade is that you can't analyze the benefits of it in any logical fashion. You have to 'follow the money', but the money went in many directions, some good and some bad.
  3. Bellhorn04
    OK lets talk WAR here. Pedro had a bWAR of 53.8 in his 7 years with the Sox. How much of an upgrade in WAR did we get from the Dodgers trade, factoring in the loss of AGon's WAR?
  4. Bellhorn04
    I know you and I have been down this road before, but in my opinion, the trade with the Dodgers was the greatest Sox salary dump of all time. I don't think it should even be compared to the D-Lowe/Varitek trade or the Pedro trade where we obtained talent rather than salary relief. I think they're entirely different species of transactions. We also have to keep in mind that one of the primary reasons the Dodgers trade was such a big deal is the incredibly inflated salaries that baseball has now.
  5. Bellhorn04
    He did do it 3 times this postseason though, including a 3 inning stint.
  6. Bellhorn04
    By the time this discussion is over, Theo will suck LOL
  7. Bellhorn04
    I realize this is a debatable point. But I think that a lot of what makes Theo's accomplishment with the Cubs such a great one is the burden of expectations that it was done with. From the moment it was known that he was going to the Cubs, the story was in place - the guy who broke the Red Sox curse is now going to try to do the same for the Cubs! Building a playoff team wasn't really good enough - it was trophy or failure. That's a pretty big ask.
  8. Bellhorn04
    The only guy who could even come close to replicating Ortiz numbers would be Encarnacion. Sandoval (835 vs RHP) and Young (846 vs LHP) could be an adequate DH platoon IF Pablo is truly in shape to play.
  9. Bellhorn04
    It's pretty hard to compare eras, period. There's so much more parity now. Back then you had a team like the Yankees winning the AL pennant 22 times out of 29 years between 1936 and 1964.
  10. Bellhorn04
    It's really hard to say. Theo certainly benefitted from being able to sign a few pricy free agents like Lester and Zobrist.
  11. Bellhorn04
    The original contract extension he signed was in December/08.
  12. Bellhorn04
    But the question with Pablo is, if weight incentives weren't in the contract he signed, what are you able to do about checking on his condition?
  13. Bellhorn04
    Obviously what you're referring to is how JBJ looked at the end of the year. But if he can put up the same numbers next year as he did this year, we should be very happy. He ended up with an OPS+ of 116, so he was 16% better than average. That's better than a lot of us thought he would be. I'm sure the coaches go over a lot of film with him and that he and they are aware of the issues that cause all the strikeouts etc. But 'fixing it' is no simple matter. Major league pitchers are really really good and they study a lot of film and computer analysis too. I don't mean to get preachy about it, I'm just saying we need to have realistic expectations and we need to realize he's probably working his ass off and that he and the coaches knows what's going on with his swing better than any of us do.
  14. Bellhorn04
    OK, other GM's have built championship teams in 5 years. I guess it all comes down to how much weight you put on the 'curse breaker' thing. I think Red Sox fans are in a pretty good position to say that we do put a lot of weight on that thing. You often hear this in comments about Big Papi - part of what makes him such a legendary figure to us is his big role in breaking the curse. Also Schilling, coming to Boston, virtually with that express purpose delivering the ring, and getting it done. When Theo went to the Cubs that franchise and that fandom were looking to him to break their curse, and he delivered, and the way he put this championship Cubs team together was a thing of beauty.
  15. Bellhorn04
    I'm not sure if he got a fair chance last year or not. The fact that Sox management put Shaw in the picture so obviously in the spring games suggests to me that they were extremely concerned about Pablo's condition. What we don't really know is exactly what condition they expected to see him in, but their actions suggested that what they saw wasn't it.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Put yourself to the test, moon, find that comp for us!
  17. Bellhorn04
    That's all part of the fun.
  18. Bellhorn04
    moonslav has made a great point on this - the numbers suggest that Jason Varitek did not really become a strong defensive catcher until he was about 30. Swihart has time.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Likewise on all points.
  20. Bellhorn04
    I'd be very surprised if they trade one of them. They're not bringing Hanigan back, so we're down to Leon and Vazquez, with Swihart working on his defense in Pawtucket.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, that's a fair point.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Just for funsies I'm going to disagree. I don't think anyone will get 400 million. 400 million would be a 23% increase over the current record holder, Stanton, whose deal is off to a very shaky start.
  23. Bellhorn04
    My personal belief is that you can't compare Russell and Jordan with each other. It's like comparing hitters and pitchers in baseball. Apples and oranges.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Harper has actually had 2 bad seasons out of the last 3. I just don't understand how the money can keep growing. At the end of the day it's the average fan paying the bills, and the average fan doesn't just keep getting richer. Something doesn't compute.
  25. Bellhorn04
    As moonslav indicated, we basically have him for the next 4 years for about 50 million total, so a 10 year 300 million deal would in effect be an extension of 6 years at about 42 million a year. Plus we assume all the risk of him getting injured (and he just had knee surgery). If terms like that are the best we can do, it's just not feasible. You have to wonder, too, at what point the MLB rate of inflation starts to slow down a bit.
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