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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    That'd be crazy talk, wouldn't it? Here's what I would say: statistical evidence is based on MASSIVE amounts of data and doesn't necessarily apply to individual cases.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Pickups aren't factored, but arb raises have been estimated - the numbers in italics are estimates. It's very good info.
  3. Bellhorn04
    As far as what the odds are of a hitter getting a hit on one particular at-bat, this is kind of a sucker question, isn't it? There are too many variables. Maybe the batter is 0 for 20, but maybe he's now facing a crappy relief pitcher of the opposite hand who he is 6 for 8 against in his career.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Cool, I didn't realize there was a tax tracker now. According to this we do have about 15.5 million to work with.
  5. Bellhorn04
    An extraordinarily hot (BABip-fueled) hitter is absolutely guaranteed to cool off in a big way, are they not? See Sandy Leon, 2016. Or Iggy in 2013.
  6. Bellhorn04
    That's the good part. The bad part is, to get top talent we'd likely have to give up yet another prospect or two.
  7. Bellhorn04
    He was being sardonic.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I think that's probably right. When a really good hitter finally does break out of a slump like that, though, they tend to go on a tear. This is what happened with Anthony Rizzo in the playoffs. He got off to a horrible start, in the first 7 games he hit 077/200/077 (2 for 26). In the last 10 games he hit 410/489/769.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Just because we reset the rate for 2018 doesn't mean we'll be able to spend like drunken sailors though, right? The penalties will still be a deterrent to exceeding the threshold by a significant amount - plus if you sign some big contracts it'll be hard to get back under again.
  10. Bellhorn04
    The Red Sox have had a lot of excellent teams since 1946, including 6 pennant winners, but not one of them has won 100 games. That's just one of the reasons I like to be conservative with the pre-season win projections.
  11. Bellhorn04
    And Pom comes out ahead in WAR. It's a virtual wash, really...
  12. Bellhorn04
    $168M isn't the correct number for luxury tax purposes. For tax purposes we are something like $8 million under the threshold now per Alex Speier's projections.
  13. Bellhorn04
    A perfect example of why the advanced defensive metrics matter was Jeter. Jeter was always a sure-handed fielder who made the plays on the balls he got to. But as he got older the number of balls he got to were less and less. If you only went by errors his numbers still looked great, but in truth he was a below-average defender because of all the balls getting past him untouched.
  14. Bellhorn04
    One note about Wright's numbers last year: his ERA was 3.33. But he also allowed a crazy high .92 unearned runs per game.
  15. Bellhorn04
    I like the idea that whoever #6 is, they're pitching some innings for us rather than the Pawsox.
  16. Bellhorn04
    True, but I'd counter that Pomeranz's numbers are skewed by his early seasons in Colorado. He reached the big leagues a lot younger than Wright did, needless to say.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Why Pomeranz instead of Wright?
  18. Bellhorn04
    Well, you could probably make a case that Wright and Pom have proven themselves to be very adaptable and to be able to handle this type of arrangement. So you take advantage of that skill they have.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Animals Jimmy Foxx Randy Wolf Rob Deer Bob Moose Steve Lyons
  20. Bellhorn04
    It is. I was actually hoping for a category on body parts. How about a player whose name consists of 4 body parts? Tony Armas.
  21. Bellhorn04
    I don't think the decision should be based on how it looks either. If you include Pomeranz's San Diego numbers, though, it's a virtual coin flip who had the better season between him and Wright. There's really not much to base the decision on there either.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Wouldn't it be less subjective the more people are involved? Nothing can be more subjective than the opinion of one person.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Having him start the year in the rotation doesn't forever rule out the possibility of using him in the bullpen.
  24. Bellhorn04
    I fail to see how wanting him to be a starter is 'another reason' it was a stupid trade. Wanting him to be a reliever would be more of a confirmation that it was a stupid trade.
  25. Bellhorn04
    I don't disagree. Personally I don't care who has earned what or if they draw straws to decide who gets the last 2 spots in the rotation. We know they'll all get their shot. It's just about the initial configuration that makes the most sense.
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