Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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I'm not really meaning to move the goal posts. The discussion has been about what causes sharp variances in player performance. I think this question is pertinent to that topic.
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That may be so, but I don't think Dombrowski is the guy who should get most of the blame for our lack of pitching depth. It wasn't exactly Ben's strong suit either.
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Let's talk about pitchers for a moment. Was the difference in Josh Beckett's numbers in 2006 and 2007 randomness? Clay Buchholz 2012 vs. 2013 - randomness? Rick Porcello 2015 vs. 2016 - randomness?
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And I'm willing to bet that MLB overall offensive numbers for the postseason are significantly lower than MLB overall offensive numbers for the regular season.
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Yes, and it applies perfectly to flipping coins and games of chance where odds can be computed mathematically. But it's not entirely satisfactory for explaining human performance variances.
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But what also needs to be considered is the strength of opposition factor in the postseason. Generally speaking you're facing the best pitching staffs, and with all the off days you're not going to see much of their back end guys.
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That's a description of the results, but it's not an explanation.
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What about a game like basketball where a shooter can hit a bunch of 3-pointers in a row and then miss a bunch. I'm not talking about shots with a defender's hand in their face, I'm talking about uncontested open shots. It's a man (or woman), a ball and a hoop. Why does the performance vary?
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It's a 2 part question: Why did they perform optimally for that limited period of time? Why can't they perform like that all the time?
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You can't make it happen, but it does happen. It's not about becoming faster or stronger, it's about feeling incredibly confident and having your muscles react exactly like you want them to for that limited period of time.
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To me the fact that it's spread out over a number of years actually increases the aberration factor. It's not the same as having a bad streak in the course of a season which happens to every player.
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I for one have never called Price a choker. I don't believe that he is. But I do believe he has a psychological 'monkey on his back' that's a factor. If you read Rick Porcello's comments about his first season in Boston, he admitted that his poor start gotten into his head and 'snowballed' on him. Things do get into players' heads and affect them. Don't take my word for it, take Porcello's.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
What about groundball specialists? They may not necessarily induce weak contact, but they throw mostly sinkers that induce hitters to beat the ball into the ground. -
There's another factor beside randomness and beside skill, and it's that indefinable 'in the zone' thing where for whatever reason a player's sharpness and confidence are at their absolute peak and they can perform above their usual level for a certain period of time. Nobody knows why that comes or why it goes. It's just part of the mystery of being human.
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Statistics can tell you a lot about what happened, but they will often not tell you a damn thing about why it happened.
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Here's the thing for me: the human body and mind do have ups and downs that are very noticeable and very hard to control or predict. Applied to sports, it means you can have days where you are hot and days where you are cold. Yes, there is a randomness involved to the ups and downs in performance level. But I don't see how that means that the hot hand and the cold hand don't exist.
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And Price can stink in his next 5 postseason games and it still won't mean anything because the sample will still be too small. It'll always be too small with postseason numbers.
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I would argue that it's foolhardy to bet that a player is going to get a hit no matter what the circumstances. You're betting against the house.
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And with a basketball player or a football quarterback you can't really attribute it much of it to luck, so you're down to mechanics and feel.
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With a baseball hitter you've got a lot of factors that can affect their performance - mechanics, how they feel physically and mentally, and luck.
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How about Iglesias in 2013 - he hit only .202 in 33 games in Pawtucket - then called up to Boston where he hit .403 in his first 44 games.
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And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
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Where does this all this leave the corrections of the BABip gods that we know are coming, such as with Leon last year?
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Nobody is 'all in', that's just hyperbole. If we were really 'all in' we would have signed Encarnacion.
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Don't forget that signing Bautista would also cost our first-round draft pick. That's a big factor on top of the luxury tax concerns. Still might happen though, who knows.
