Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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I'm really not into these predictions but Guardians over D'backs sounds like a good call. Go Sox!
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I agree with you about Mueller's hit. It goes without saying that even a clutch hitter is going to fail more often than not because the odds are so heavily stacked against him.
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That's a good way to put it.
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15-0 Yankees. No sense even playing the game.
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As mvp78 would say, of course David Ortiz is clutch, he has the trophy to prove it.
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I agree, it is a Catch-22.
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My definition for clutch is pretty simple. Someone who performs as well or better in high leverage situations as they do overall. But I have a problem with 'high leverage' stats in regular season games because they don't really consider the relative importance of the game itself. Definitions of clutch are problematic, but far from impossible.
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The sample size for postseason numbers is obviously a large issue. Lemke's 257 PA's is about 1/2 a season or a little less. I use Schilling as an example. He had 133.1 postseason innings. That's about 2/3 of a season.
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Ortiz and Schilling were clutch performers, in my opinion. I think Schilling's postseason numbers are especially hard to refute. You can argue that the sample is still too small for proof. That's fine. But you certainly can't disprove he was clutch. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
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Yes, I believe there is plenty of scientific evidence that pressure and fear of failure can have highly adverse effects on human beings and their performance of tasks.
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Along the same lines, on the Golf Channel they were advertising this contest where the winner gets to play a round of golf with Dustin Johnson, one of the longest hitters on tour. My reaction was, no thanks, I really don't need that kind of humiliation. Even on a hole where I hit a good drive, he could bomb one 100 yards past me without even trying that hard.
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I think I read that the 2015 rotation even had Who's the Ace? t-shirts made up. It was all quite amusing until the season started.
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No, 2015 was the year of 'Who's the Ace'?
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Take a look at these crazy drop-offs from 2013 to 2014. In some cases the 2014 numbers include numbers with other teams, but I don't think that really alters the point. Every single one of them had drop-offs, many of them massive ones. Salty 804-681 Napoli 842-789 Pedroia 787-712 Drew 777-536 Gomes 771-657 Ellsbury 781-747 Vic 801-685 Ortiz 959-873 Nava 831-706 Carp 885-519 Iggy 785-missed 2014-717 in 2015
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Maybe there really is some truth to the old adage about hitting being contagious.
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There was no change in the manager or hitting coach between the 2 years so it doesn't really make much sense to tie the decline to the coaching. The one glaring change between the 2 years was the retirement of Ortiz. And the hitters that came in after not being with us in 2016-Moreland, Devers and Nunez-all did well.
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Yes, he has to be there.
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Well, you see, Kimmi and the SABRmetricians say clutch exists...but isn't a repeatable skill.
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The only current/former MLB pitcher I would step in against is Tim Wakefield. I might not connect with anything but at least I wouldn't get killed.
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I said Vaz exceeded expectations. I think that's a fair statement. Holt only had 164 PA's this year. Pretty short sample. Plus the concussion/vertigo.
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Holt shouldn't be included. Vazquez exceeded expectations in 2017. Moreland probably exceeded expectations in 2017. Devers possibly exceeded expectations in 2017. I am picking cherries and coating them with sugar and they are quite tasty.
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With regard to the hitting declines, you may have to consider the possibility that the true outlier season was 2016. Some of these same hitters had big increases from 2015 to 2016.
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That's fair...increasing the probability is all you can ask.
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LOL nope, I wouldn't bet a quarter on a baseball prediction.
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I agree, the final verdict on JF's 2017 performance is not in yet.
