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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Sure. But I assume proving or disproving whether a fastball can rise can be done pretty conclusively with empirical science. Whereas the attempt to prove or disprove whether clutch or protection exist with statistics has produced numerous extensive studies that have not come up with anything conclusive.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Please explain the big deal about him hitting 3rd instead of 4th. Coming into today's game he had a 1098 OPS hitting 4th and a 1041 OPS hitting 3rd. So better numbers hitting 4th. And he leads the majors in RBI.
  3. Bellhorn04
    On the first 6 games of their current road trip, 3 in TO and 3 in NY, the Rays only gave up 9 runs - 1.5 per game.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Kelly has a 0.5 fWAR at a salary of $3.8 million. That's not much in the way of surplus value. And he's actually been terrible since June 1 - 2.5 months, not 1 month.
  5. Bellhorn04
    So the improvement in his approach would seem to be a more logical explanation than anything else, wouldn't it?
  6. Bellhorn04
    Kelly has tumbled to the point that replacing him shouldn't be a big deal either.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Sorry if I mischaracterized what you were saying. My comments are just sort of general musings on the topic.
  8. Bellhorn04
    I think what you're getting at is that the information we're getting is true. Sale has some soreness in his shoulder and they're not just using the DL to rest him.
  9. Bellhorn04
    But protection is not really that subtle of a concept. The premise is pretty simple - the better the hitter behind you, the better the pitches you see, the better your numbers should be. It should show up.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Of course Sale also has a well-documented history of losing effectiveness late in the season, and many Sox followers have been clamoring for him to get extra rest, soreness or not.
  11. Bellhorn04
    I said it was possible. Maybe it's one of the reasons, sure.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Sure there's research about optimizing the order. Kimmi has posted some of the findings many times. I don't think the research mentions protection anywhere. It recommends a high OBP guy at the top of the order to create more RBI opportunities for hitters behind him, not to protect the #9 hitter.
  13. Bellhorn04
    In theory that's possible. But then you have to consider some other things. Such as why it wasn't working like that the first part of the season when JBJ looked so lost. Also you have to look at from the pitcher's side. He knows JBJ has been hitting the ball a lot better lately. How much does he want to give JBJ good pitches to hit with that in mind? Especially when a single or double by JBJ puts a runner on for Mookie? Maybe if anything he has more incentive than ever to go after JBJ hard. There's just so much little stuff that goes on in baseball.
  14. Bellhorn04
    I don't get where anybody is saying anybody is stupid.
  15. Bellhorn04
    I'm afraid any credit you might have gotten for your Moose rants has been undermined by your LoMo and Duda rants.
  16. Bellhorn04
    The protection thing has been studied pretty extensively, I think, and the benefit just doesn't show up in the numbers, no matter how much logic might seem to cry out for it to.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Jesus man. This is just one of the posts that prove you are the Debbie Downer of all time. For the record, they scored 2 in the 1st, 1 in the 4th, 1 in the 5th, 1 in the 6th and 2 in the 7th, for a total of 7 runs in 8 innings. And they lead the majors in runs scored, of course.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Funny how much better bullpen handling looks when the relievers give up no runs.
  19. Bellhorn04
    The A's are only 1 back of the Stros now after being 11.5 back at one point. If the A's momentum continues you're facing the Stros.
  20. Bellhorn04
    Getting out of the AL will be tough no matter who we face.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Everyone's expecting him to get hurt so he probably won't this time. He's got a big financial incentive going for him too.
  22. Bellhorn04
    The usefulness of anything in the realm of sports is purely subjective. And from a fan's perspective, can only be useful in the sense of providing some sort of pleasure.
  23. Bellhorn04
    There's a big difference between believing that WAR is a useful tool and believing that it's an absolutely reliable determinant in comparing players. On this forum we see a lot of different numbers put up. moonslav puts up the most numbers and I think it's more often OPS or ERA rather than WAR. For me WAR is kind of a starting point. If I see a WAR that seems oddly high or low I want to look into it and see what's going on. Examples: At first I was a bit surprised when I looked at Big Papi's WAR, much lower than I expected considering his huge numbers. But the explanations of course were that he didn't play defense and he was slow as molasses. Last year I was surprised at how low Pedroia's WAR was. Looking into it I found it was because of his terrible baserunning numbers. It really highlighted how much of his speed he had lost. Just little nuggets like that make it useful for me.
  24. Bellhorn04
    JD's numbers blow away Harper's numbers this year. How do you get 'no sweat' out of that?
  25. Bellhorn04
    In a field of science as imprecise as measuring the performance of a baseball player I think 17% is probably acceptable. The underlying question is, can the margin of error be made any lower? If yes, I'm sure it will be done. If no, we all just have to accept it for what it is.
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