It's true, there is significant risk no matter what you do.
That's why guys like DD and Cashman get paid a lot to make these calls, and with tons of data at their fingertips-and even then they're going to be wrong a fair number of times.
I liked your Familia and Ottavino idea, but together they're probably going to command $20M a year or so too, as you said.
Your idea costs as much on an annual basis, just for less years, presumably.
Signing Cody Allen and some 'top-flight' setup guy might end up as a waste of $20M AAV too.
There are no guarantees either way.
You spends your money and you takes your chances.
Offer Kimbrel 3 years at $21 mill per, with opt-outs after each year.
Plus some perks-maybe lifetime supplies of beard-trimming services and Lucky Charms cereal...
Chap's deal and his injury/performance issues this year are not making anyone feel better about that kind of deal for a closer.
Jansen has some very serious health concerns as well.
Honestly giving Kimbrel $100 mill would be idiotic.