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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    I'm not weighing the second half more highly. I'm weighing each game equally. They won 81 of them and they lost 81 of them. To what do you attribute the post-ASB record of 28-38?
  2. Bellhorn04
    Right, but they couldn't stay above .500 for more than a few games until mid-June. They were: 7-7 9-9 10-10 19-19 22-22 26-26, 27-27 etc. right up to 35-35. They were the Even Stevens. The Maestros of Mediocrity. They had one really good stretch, from mid-June to mid-July. That was it.
  3. Bellhorn04
    I think he could adjust. He had a few glitches with the pitch clock thing and adjusted to it. He's an old pro. And at the moment one still looking for an MLB contract.
  4. Bellhorn04
    So what you're talking about isn't really "playing better", you're just saying we had worse than average injury luck. I disagree with your recap of the season. The 2024 Sox were at .500 in mid-June. They went on a great run for a month that put them about 10 games over. That was really their only stretch of excellent play. They came out of the break playing like crap and it all went down the tubes from there.
  5. Bellhorn04
    If they show him the right number dinero-wise I expect he would say sure, and since he seems a fairly confident fellow, he'd probably be thinking he would get the closer job back anyway...
  6. Bellhorn04
    As of today, if the Jays signed Juan Soto for the same as the Mets did, they would owe him more than 1.1 billion Canadian dollars. 🤣
  7. Bellhorn04
    If you like that kind of humor, you should have a field day with Roman and Kristian!
  8. Bellhorn04
    Hell, for a few days we had Soto and Fried on the 2025 team, just for starters! 🙃
  9. Bellhorn04
    I think you're operating on hunches and a natural bias toward optimism about your own team. Which I understand, we all do it. The thing about projections is, assuming they're done by a reputable source, they're truly unbiased. They're not "reliable" because no predictions about baseball are, but they'll be more accurate than those of biased fans. As I've said before, the team win projections for the Sox the last 3 years were virtually all in the 80-85 range, and they turned out to be close to bang on each time.
  10. Bellhorn04
    My problem with the Jays isn't that they're better than us... It's that they're spending more than us!
  11. Bellhorn04
    Right, so how can you say they "played better" than their record?
  12. Bellhorn04
    Holy crap, you really do know a lot of this arcane stuff. 😄
  13. Bellhorn04
    Garrett Whitlock is actually one of the guys that keeps me interested in this team. He was a joy to watch in 2021. And being stolen from the Yanks always helps!
  14. Bellhorn04
    We're picking over fine points. I'm not saying Toronto has made a big leap. To me it's pretty grim news to see projections that the Red Sox, rather than ascending in the East, might actually have a good chance of returning to the basement. Basically the feeling out there, just about unanimously, is that the Sox have stayed mediocre. Which is crazy, with the payroll room they have. We've got teams spending $300 million and the Sox are treating the first tax line as a line made of electrified barbed wire.
  15. Bellhorn04
    What I think is that the projections bake in all of this and more, and the 2025 projections are not that great for our position players, so we're trying to find a way around the projections. "That can't be right!" stuff.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Yes, in a perfect world Garrett will revisit 2021. I certainly like that he acknowledged he's a bullpen guy from here on out.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Here's a composite projection based on 4 different sources. I can't attest to the accuracy of its math. https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx Yankees 91 Jays 87 Rays 86 Orioles 86 Red Sox 82
  18. Bellhorn04
    But you also have outliers and regression to the mean, that's why Duran is projected to be not as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, which is in itself a significant reason why our projections don't look as good as some think they should be.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Craig said he wanted to balance the lineup. He actually came right out and said that. “Given that most of the heavy lifting in the rotation is largely done, I think we'll shift our focus to thinking about how to balance out the lineup,” Breslow said Monday. “We've talked about some right-handed bat helping to equalize the significant number of left-handed hitters that we have.Dec 30, 2024 Maybe he's not that much different from Sam when it comes down to it. Or maybe he says something like that and then the finance committee tells him differently.
  20. Bellhorn04
    Do you have more favorable alternative data?
  21. Bellhorn04
    Talent-wise perhaps, health-wise I'd have to go with Jansen. Hendriks was expected to come back around August last year but couldn't. That's not especially encouraging.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Law of averages?
  23. Bellhorn04
    That's all fair. I just think being a little better than last year represents another punt by the cheapskates. It's like the real plan is "keep punting, keep selling hope to the dummies, keep turning a big profit."
  24. Bellhorn04
    Their BS is getting more blatant all the time. They won 81 last year and it looks like they've maybe added 4 wins, based on all the objective data out there. To me they obviously haven't done enough to indicate they're realistically shooting for 90. If 75% of things go right they might sniff 90. If 75% of things go wrong they're looking at 80.
  25. Bellhorn04
    The Jays were much better than us in 2022 and 2023. Of course the Jays aren't the worry. The fact that the Sox projections are this bad is the worry.
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