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iortiz

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Everything posted by iortiz

  1. iortiz
    Sorry and hopefully you do not take this personal but in this case while you base your opinion on rumours and vox populi I base it on facts which I see, like this. I saw Theo saying this over and over again. The other day BC said that he feels comfortable and oks about the current rotation going forward. Sorry, I will not drink at all that kool aid, will you? and even if you do, as I said, it is oks. Again, do not take me wrong, I'm not a fan of Luchino or Theo or BC or even JH, or any FO executive. They all are greedy and put very little value on the table when a game is played IMO.
  2. iortiz
    I use sabermetrics in order to correlate them to the outcome of certain bets that I book specially on 4 1/2 handicap bets at bet365.com. Last year I adopted the IBM SPSS software since a friend who studied with me in collage recently got his black belt certification and encouraged me to use it in order to weight better the coefficients with a better numeric method suggested by the software based on the historic behavior of each stat. I only had been calculating linear weights based on their history. It improved considerably, from 67% to 72% of hit rate in 4 1/2 handicap bets. I can't wait to test my model again this year since I have tuned it.
  3. iortiz
    Yup, I give them that.
  4. iortiz
    Funny thing is that some people want to sound interesting when are talking about them or simply present them as rocket science LOL! I have found them very useful in my betting model, but I think that you do not even need a high school degree to understand them. On the other hand, If you were talking about the designing of nonisothermal reactors I would understand LOL.
  5. iortiz
    Well, Theo admitted so many times that all blame after the 2011 collapse was on him since he suggested all the trades and FA signings authorized by his bosses.
  6. iortiz
    Well, if you are talking about 2013 team, it is ok, I will never dispute or question your thoughts that you had at the time. If you feel optimistic about the team currently assembled, it is oks as well and you probably have an assessment based on what you see and stats and its perfectly oks, but I already have made mine, and probably we just disagree and it is oks, no big deal Kim. I think it is great to have an open mind and be humble if you have to change an opinion but at the same time to be firm on your believes and convictions haha.
  7. iortiz
    Thanks Ted. I have to say as well that even big market teams in recent years have adopted at some extent the stats into their evaluations in order to fill some specific holes... but still their opening day lineups will be commanded mostly by rich players.
  8. iortiz
    Well... you put it in 2 lines what I tried to explain in 10 haha NYY wil be always at least legit contenders and all the big spenders that emerge year after year.
  9. iortiz
    While stats are important, rich teams will always command professional sports, since they have on paper better assembled teams. The same thing happens in any industry. Large Enterprises command their respective markets. It is what it is. How many WSs does the NYY have under their belt? Real Madrid? etc. Sure... In baseball, in recent years, stats have helped underdog/small market teams to have more chances to compete vs big spenders... but still, most of rich teams at least will be considered legit contenders since they have the "best" players who btw are usually attached to top stats.
  10. iortiz
    While I use a lot of stats in my betting model in order to be "objetive", in the end I consider other intangibles and subjective situations that help me support a pick.
  11. iortiz
    If Nats keep their current rotation, they will be my pick.
  12. iortiz
    Haven't seen the lines these days but few weeks ago the casinos were giving a 9/1 to win the WS to the Red Sox, the best odd to any team at the time. Sorry but I do not even see PO team right now, since the pitching. Much more less a legit WS contender. I will always cheer up and root for the Red Sox no matter what, and hopefully If we go with this pitching staff, we make a big splash as the casinos are suggesting; but I'm trying to see the things without my Red Sox glasses.
  13. iortiz
    I see. L always made the bad decisions and Theo the good ones. Do not take wrong I do not like L But come on man, Theo left a disaster when he left... And while he got a "better" job in Chicago, JH did not make any effort to retain him. Also, Common knowledge? Do you have this on the record? Any Evidence? Were u in the decision room when the decisions were taken? Or is it a vox populi/cliche/conjectures/assumptions based? Because I do not have record of this.
  14. iortiz
    It is not true. I had good expectations entering into 2011 and 2014.
  15. iortiz
    Kim, did you really really really expect: 1. Lackey coming from hell and performing as he did? 2. Ellsbury staying healthy for once in a full season and be considered at some point a MVP caliber? 3. Finding in Koji and Tazawa an automatic win when we came into the last 2 innings? 4. Buch posting a microscopic ERA and giving u BTW 12 W even with his DL? 5. Papi hitting almost a 1000 OPS in regular season and most important a 1.9+ in POS and mostly in WS? Hell, he is an extraordinary player BUT come on, he was performing as he was out of this planet at 37 for Gods sake... 6. Lester bouncing back and performing like a legit ace when it is important: at POs I mean... I could make a case for almost every single player like Nava, Salty, Shane, etc. since the expections vs their 2013 performance weren't expected at all, when we ENTERED INTO 2013 SEASON. On the other hand if you saw all of this coming entering into 2013 season, fine! But you would be 1 in a million Kim.
  16. iortiz
    I think where the problem is. You are seeing the thing in a retrospective way instead of seeing it as how we are addressing the topic; ... entering into a new season. Just for the record, no one is taking away any credit to anybody. No one. That team worked as a perfect oiled machine, BUT, again... A lot of things/situations overachieved the initial expectations.
  17. iortiz
    I think they won't let Cherrys spend like a drunken sailor like Theo did with his horrible FA signings mostly at the end of his tenure... and while this is wise and prudent, I think it is time to land a couple of aces via FA/reasonable trade.
  18. iortiz
    Yeah, those and other things happened and were not expected at all, reason why I said the planets aligned.
  19. iortiz
    While winning a WS is kinda crap shot, haven't seen the numbers, but I would bet that no more than a handful of teams represent the 80/20 of the total of teams which have won the WSs Point is, you always will have more chances when you have a better team on paper, and it usually is attached with big money. Don't believe me? Look at the NYY. Look at Real Madrid. Probably out there are exceptions but almost every professional sport is commanded by rich teams. BL. We are going to enter into a new season without a big dollar arm/ace/No1 and still one of the highests payrolls in baseball. Funny.
  20. iortiz
    mmm.... When u say the planets aligned, is because you did not expect at all or with little chances some situations which were transcendental to succeed. When they landed Hanrahan everybody expected that he performed at least as he did in the recent past. He did not since got injured. Bailey was expected to stay healthy and set up the table for H. He didn't. He... Well got injured, again. So... the planets aligned when we found in Koji a closer that nobody on earth expected... plus, a lot things worked out as well which nobody saw coming. That's kind of the point.
  21. iortiz
    Yup, his AAV worth it. You sound sometimes like Emmz (a very knowledgeable poster who isn't posting anymore, hopefully she is ok), and BTW welcome.
  22. iortiz
    I would like to live that expirience. Have fun my friend.
  23. iortiz
    While I do think there was some kind of luck regarding Koji, that is not the point. Point is that nobody expected 1. Koji closing since you already had two fat closers and 2. Much more less and more important, Koji posting those ridiculous numbers and performing as he did mostly at POs (otherwise he would have closed since the begining of 2013 season instead of the fat injury prone duo dinamico)
  24. iortiz
    Then any reliever could close, and is not the case.
  25. iortiz
    And Ted, 99.99% LOL!
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