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iortiz

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Everything posted by iortiz

  1. iortiz
    I think 70% is high to me. It is a subjective thing but probably 50 % stats and 50 % scouting/intangibles would be my take.
  2. iortiz
    Do not worry about him, it is his modus operandi. You will be fine around here.
  3. iortiz
    We'll never know, but what it's a fact is that Cherrys asked for Papelbon when the two fat duo dynamico collapsed.
  4. iortiz
    Yeah, the forum is for civil discussions, problem is that you use it to make baseless accusations that are suitable to your nonsense modus operandi.
  5. iortiz
    I just presented facts. It is not my fault that you hate him.
  6. iortiz
    Not that good? 39 SV, 91% SV%, microscopic 2.0 ERA,, Solid SO, durability after 10 Y of duty what else do u want? Fat busts signed by your boys?
  7. iortiz
    Yeah! And as I said, they are very helpful, but In the end I consider as well other intangibles from several options that the model suggests, I said that as well. I recommend you to read the whole story before you post, no offense.
  8. iortiz
    According to JH, Theo wanted CC.
  9. iortiz
    Nobody is calling him idiot LOL! He is presenting quotes where Theo (who also has accepted himself to want CC at the time) and decision makers were who wanted CC according to JH. Also, nobody is claiming to know the whole story, he is presenting facts based on quotes. On the other hand you are only presenting assumptions of what you believe L did and accusations to a700 which are not even true.
  10. iortiz
    When you look at the busts and injury prone closers signed like Hanrahan (7 M), Jenks (6 M), Mujica (5 M), Bailey (8 M) and Thorton who didn't close but still (6 M)... The Papelbon departure was a mistake considering the fact that he has been closing pretty well in Philly, and most important, he has stayed healthy. On the other hand those fat busts have cost us tons of money and wins.
  11. iortiz
    You were already paying the same AVV in 2011 and his performance is kind of the same (even better last year, I would say), not sure what you are talking about.... and I'm not even considering the recent inflation in the last three years. If it is 10%, the NPV would look ridiculous, a bargain to me.
  12. iortiz
    Not sure what Phillies want in return but he made the job and has delivered for what he has been paid, which is save games.
  13. iortiz
    Not sure why they feel and act that way.
  14. iortiz
    While I do like stats, I think they are a bit overrated these days and some think they are the panacea, and they aren't.
  15. iortiz
    I think I saw this as well on ESPNBoston.com. Either way, as I said, FO executives and managers regardless the name/team are commodities to me. They give you little value and could be replaced easily. On the other hand players are specialties who put the real value on the table and hardly replaceable.
  16. iortiz
    Yeah look what happened with Papelbon. A lot of people suggested that he was done or was going to decline. The guy has earned his pay check thus far. A lot of examples are out there, for good or for bad.
  17. iortiz
    What did Luchino say exactly?
  18. iortiz
    Thank u Kim.
  19. iortiz
    Sorry and hopefully you do not take this personal but in this case while you base your opinion on rumours and vox populi I base it on facts which I see, like this. I saw Theo saying this over and over again. The other day BC said that he feels comfortable and oks about the current rotation going forward. Sorry, I will not drink at all that kool aid, will you? and even if you do, as I said, it is oks. Again, do not take me wrong, I'm not a fan of Luchino or Theo or BC or even JH, or any FO executive. They all are greedy and put very little value on the table when a game is played IMO.
  20. iortiz
    I use sabermetrics in order to correlate them to the outcome of certain bets that I book specially on 4 1/2 handicap bets at bet365.com. Last year I adopted the IBM SPSS software since a friend who studied with me in collage recently got his black belt certification and encouraged me to use it in order to weight better the coefficients with a better numeric method suggested by the software based on the historic behavior of each stat. I only had been calculating linear weights based on their history. It improved considerably, from 67% to 72% of hit rate in 4 1/2 handicap bets. I can't wait to test my model again this year since I have tuned it.
  21. iortiz
    Yup, I give them that.
  22. iortiz
    Funny thing is that some people want to sound interesting when are talking about them or simply present them as rocket science LOL! I have found them very useful in my betting model, but I think that you do not even need a high school degree to understand them. On the other hand, If you were talking about the designing of nonisothermal reactors I would understand LOL.
  23. iortiz
    Well, Theo admitted so many times that all blame after the 2011 collapse was on him since he suggested all the trades and FA signings authorized by his bosses.
  24. iortiz
    Well, if you are talking about 2013 team, it is ok, I will never dispute or question your thoughts that you had at the time. If you feel optimistic about the team currently assembled, it is oks as well and you probably have an assessment based on what you see and stats and its perfectly oks, but I already have made mine, and probably we just disagree and it is oks, no big deal Kim. I think it is great to have an open mind and be humble if you have to change an opinion but at the same time to be firm on your believes and convictions haha.
  25. iortiz
    Thanks Ted. I have to say as well that even big market teams in recent years have adopted at some extent the stats into their evaluations in order to fill some specific holes... but still their opening day lineups will be commanded mostly by rich players.
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