iortiz
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Everything posted by iortiz
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His ERA in 2020 was 5+. It is Bum's ERA in my book. it doesn't matter how you slice it. Fangraph's fav run prevention stat, SIERA, says that Porcello owns a 4.4 SIERA in 2020. That's below average in their scale. His 2020 xFIP is in the same neighborhood. His ERA- was 133 (very awful, out of chart). If you are going to consider only his FIP (3.3) which is not an exclusively stat of fangraphs, you would be likely doing a bad analysis/cherry picking since most of his RPE stats including ERA are below average and close to awful as I presented. You like bWAR? his bWAR was 0.2. His fWAR should be taken with grain of salt since it considers FIP. Yeah I like FG over BBR but his bad years don't change the fact that he's been awful in his last several years regardless the source.
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Not Sure whether Dalbec alone would land those 2 pieces. Barlow as far I remember has been very good.
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Wonder whether a package around Dalbec would land Santana.
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2021 TalkSox Fantasy Baseball League-Mike Grace Memorial League
iortiz replied to a700hitter's topic in Contests/Prizes
I think they adjusted some stats of the SUSP games of last Saturday. I just noticed that for the first time I reached the platinum level lol -
In the last 6 years, he has only one very good year and he is still relatively "young".
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This is a guy I would make a considerable effort to land him.
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It is flawed in short samples, yes, not that much in large. You can't be "unlucky" through 11 years. There's no a single stat without flaws. None. OTOH IMO ERA still tells you all-in-all what kind of pitcher are you in large samples. Most very good pitchers have very good ERAs and bad pitchers bad ERAs. Plain and simple. For instance I can't remember Very Good Pitchers with Bad career ERAs. Also for contact pitchers most run prevention estimators and even WAR (specially fangraph's) are even less accurate and unfair since most of them love Ks. K pitchers are not necessary better than contact pitchers. In fact, contact pitchers are often more economical and have better durability.
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In short samples, yes, it helps you to determine "luck" moving forward since HRs are fluke events by definition, BUT, in large samples, when your HR/FB is high as Porcello's, it tells you with 100% of certainty, you are a prone HR pitcher, and in this case due his poor command. As BABIP and LOB, a pitcher can control this peripheral stat. How can you know? Large samples help you to figure out. You can find career BABIP/LOB/ HR/FB rates significantly below/above the average, because some pitchers can induce/control (for good or bad) those stats. This is FanGraphs HR/FB chart Rating HR/FB Excellent 5.0% Great 7.0% Above Average 8.5% Average 9.5% Below Average 10.5% Poor 11.5% Awful 13.0% Porcello is at the bottom of the chart through 11 years. In his case this is not random/luck/fluke. He's been a prone HR pitcher.
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I couldn’t watch the last couple of game. I guess both games were so stressful LOL!
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Yeah and he made sure Kevin gets it.
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His career ERA is 4.4. What did I miss? Go figure again. Fangraphs calls 4.4 ERA pitchers, Below Average Pitchers. I call them mediocre and very close to bums (4.5+) Yes, we can move on. No problem.
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That comment was a sarcastic one. Of course some agree and some disagree. If you think a 4.4 ERA and 2.6 fWAR career pitcher is good, be my guest. My bar is similar to fangraphs. Higher.
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Well, if you and others think he is a good pitcher be my guest. Most charts say he was mediocre/average. The HR-fluke thing was to emphasizes that his career HR/FB is very awful due his horrible command. He threw a lot of meatballs which turned into HRs.
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That’s the thing moon. The HR/FB thing wasn’t related on Porcello’s being good or mediocre (We all already know he is mediocre/average) but his command. You are clueless hence this discussion is a nonsense. If you are still interested in my HR/FB vs command argument, please do 2 things. 1. Breath deeply and chill. 2. Reread the thread and objectively try analyze what I’m saying. If you still disagree after doing that, no problem. No big deal.
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As I said you don’t have a clue what the discussion was. Also, show me where I said HR/FB is major indicator of how good a pitcher is. I’ll wait. And yes, HR/FB helps you to predict HRs behavior moving forward. Read the fangraphs’ glossary regarding HR/FB. Also 12% HR/FB is an awful figure based on the fangraphs’ HR/FB chart. Go figure!
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Nope. Most of his metrics are mediocre. Look at the charts.
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I already answered that question few pages ago moon. I won’t rewrite the whole thing again moon, sorry.
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Wow how in the holy cow we won? Lol
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Workman can’t get outs to save his life. They should DFA him already.
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Yup. As I said, ERA carries luck and whatever you want in short samples but in large samples it tells what kind of pitcher are you. Porcello is a 4.4 ERA pitcher though 11 years. Something between average or below average. You can’t be unlucky through 11 years. You simply are what you are.
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You are asking this because you are clueless of what we are talking about. And no, his HR/FB% is really awful hence his HR%.
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LOL do you even know what the discussion is about?
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As I said, you haven’t followed the discussion. The first paragraph refers to the fact that HRs in short samples are fluke outcomes. The seconds refers to large samples.
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Nope, I didn’t say that moon. His career HR/FB% is not a fluke and is very awful. I think you haven’t followed me well. I suggest you to reread my posts.
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A HR is a fluke outcome in short samples, BUT in large samples it is not. HR/FB works and can be used as LOB and BABIP in order to determine whether your rate is luck or not moving forward. In Porcello’s case, in his eleven career years of service his HR/FB is really awful hence not a fluke.
