Wins Above Replacement for Pitchers
From BBR
“A single number that presents the number of wins the player added
to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. This value includes defensive support and includes additional value for high leverage situations.
Scale: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter,
0-2 Reserve,
Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com”
Again, look at the charts. He is something between average and below average. I understand what you are trying to do here, but it doesn’t work that way.
Also if you have more bad years than good in most of your career you can’t be a good pitcher. It’s that simple.
As you said, that is a flawed method. I think I told you before. For instance a career 2.6 fWAR pitcher can't be a No. 1 by any means.
This is why fangraphs, baseball reference and other sources have their rule-of-thumb charts for each stat which actually consider large samples.
In those charts Porcello consistently ranks in most of them, between the Average-Below Average level as I have been presented.
Sure, ERA+/ERA- are great indicators and actually they are not far of his other ERA estimators.
IMO Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) reflects better his profile since it considers BABIP. Porcello is a contact pitcher so SIERA could be a bit more accurate of what Porcello is/was.
Said that his main career ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA are 4.06, 4.04 and 4.1. All in the same neighborhood which suggest you a 4-4.1 number represents what he is/was.
4-4.1 is something between average and below average, based on FanGraphs' charts.
Rating SIERA
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 3.90
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00
Rating FIP
Excellent 3.20
Great 3.50
Above Average 3.80
Average 4.20
Below Average 4.40
Poor 4.70
Awful 5.00
Rating xFIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.20
Above Average 3.50
Average 3.80
Below Average 4.10
Poor 4.40
Awful 4.70
Actually no. His ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, fWAR, bWAR are between average and below average based on Fangraphs’ charts.
Rating RPE
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.20
Above Average 3.50
Average 3.80
Below Average 4.10
Poor 4.40
Awful
We were talking about his career fWAR Bell, which as I said it still has flaws specially for contact pitchers, but it is still a decent indicator of value in large samples —11+ years.
His 2020 fWAR should be taken with a grain of salt not only because is one-year analysis but a 60-game season.