SoxSport

Having just read Grant's original memoirs--the original Mark Twain edition--and Jean Smith's splendid biography of Grant as well, I probably can add my own observations here. Grant's strategy was always to cut off his enemy's supply lines, which in those days meant destroying the railroad lines supplying the enemy. Often with Sheriden's cavalry. He did this in Vicksburg (also using the Union Navy to control river routes and to transport troops), and finally in Richmond--cutting off Lee's forces around Richmond like a giant fishhook until Lee had no place to go--and no supplies. Sherman's strategy in the South was similar--destroy all supplies and supply routes to the enemy--hence the scorched earth policy. Grant was an old supply officer in the Mexican War, and he understood the importance of logistics--both supplying his own troops and cutting off supplies to his opposition. His greatest generals--the guys he trusted the most--were Sherman and Sheriden. Hancock, too. Hancock, by the way, was a Democrat, and not of much help to Grant as President after the War. But a great General. His best lifetime friend--his roommate at West Point--was General Longstreet--arguably the best Confederate general. Later, he commanded Union troops when Grant was President to put down an uprising in New Orleans. Both Grant and Longstreet were members of the Literary club at West Point (Grant was President of the club). Grant spent more time in the West Point library reading the classics, than reading his textbooks. Hence, his excellent literary style in crafting his memoirs on his deathbed. Regarding the politics of the time--one must be carfeul about labels--especially conservative, democrat, republican, etc. Indeed the politics were completely the opposite to what they are today. In my view, Grant was as great an American leader as Lincoln. As President, he pushed the amendments to make blacks' citizens and give them voting rights. His main weakness was he trusted his friends and business associates too much--and some took advantage of that.

Their only real hope of upgrading their starters is the prospects. Those are the guys who have the upside to get to levels at the top of the rotation.Guys like Webster and DeLaRosa, and others coming. That level of pitching is priced sky high in the market. Right now, except for Dempster (3.4 ERA, but 5+ in Texas) the Red Sox have no starters with ERAs below 4.0 last year. Lester is a 3+ ERA pitcher, and may well be back there this year. The rest figure to be around 4-4.50. That isn't good enough. The FO looks at their starters with rose colored glasses. It also is somewhat boxed in with holdovers. No place for prospects with a real chance to upgrade the rotation. The old stoppers like Schilling and Pedro aren't there.

O-Oh . Cherington better stay out of sight.

The odd thing is the Red Sox wound up spending more money pre-season on new players than the Jays did. The Jays got more quality, especially in pitching, and the Red Sox got more players. It will still boil down to pitching, as to which team finishes higher.

I think the Red Sox backed out because they wanted to hold onto their prospects. Cherington was at some meeting at UMass when the deal was made. They had no serious involvement at that point. I don't think they wanted Reyes or Buerhle. They are deep in young options at SS, and Buerhle's contract is excessive. Johnson was the one guy they were interested in, and he's an injury risk.

Ortiz has been doing a lot of running today. I wouldn't be surprised if their medical staff asked him to steal a few bases. The guy is a DH, paid to hit. Why risk injuries with all these running drills? It's a 2 edge sword.

Lav needs to sort things out in AAA. He doesn't look comfortable at the plate at all.

More innings than I realized. 189 is good. He doesn't look very durable, and has a DL history. Other than Lester, they don't have any 200 inning pitchers. But with a pitch count limit of 100, it's hard to get to 200 innings. 120 will get you there.

Oh sure. You're gambling above 120 pitches. That's usually the limit though some pitchers can stretch to 125 or so on a good day. Guys like Verlander. That's where pitch counts matter--around 120 and above. Trouble is, the limit is now being set to 100 pitches--well below 120. That gets the starter out after 5-6 innings--in some cases, and puts burden on the bullpen. That policy sucks, because it gets middle relievers into the game that suck and can cost you the game. The Rays don't do that unless they have to. And there are enough times when you have to--when the starter doesn't have it that day.

You figure Lester is bound to improve, but the other guys are going to tread water. Lackey and Dempster are not world beaters. Buchholz is a 150-160 inning guy at best. They need some quantum improvements in their starters--some guys that turn to gold. That means rolling the dice with DeLaRosa and Webster ASAP--before the season is lost. Kids with upside. This is not a team that should be playing conservative with holdovers that might get them to .500.

The biggest advantage of taking taking a lot of pitches these days is to run up the pitch count for the starting pitcher. That's the easiest way to get him out of the game, because most teams have a pitch count machine in their dugouts. If the guy goes beyond a certain number of pitches, he's gone--no matter how good he's pitching. Some teams like the Red Sox are pretty religious about this, while other teams are more flexible--depending on the situation. The Rays are an example of the latter. My own view is a starter should be stretched out if he is sharp--and relieved when he is not--regardless of pitch counts. The other advantage is to the hitter as well. He has a better chance of getting on base, which means of not making an out--in saber terms. If you ever saw Ted Williams play, you would know the guy was a pitch count machine. He simply would not swing at a pitch out of the strike zone--no matter what the situation.And boy did he know the strike zone.That means he got a ton of walks, including intentional ones, which added greatly to his OBP and OPS numbers. Bonds had ridiculous OPS numbers in his Hercules PED period, when he was walking more frequently than even Williams or Ruth did. Teams refused to pitch to him with men on base.

Actually, the Red Sox should be benefitting from a purge--their own. Let's see who benefits more. The biggest problem the Sox have is they didn't improve their starting pitching the way the Jays did.

The Red Sox continue to overrate their starting pitching.

Farrell, when asked today about where Webster will be pitching, said, "Our rotation is spoken for." Yes, after all, we won the division last year, mainly on our great starting rotation--one of the best in baseball. And so we don't see any upstart prospects being able to improve it--no matter what they do in spring training. This is a team that talks the talk about prospects, and walks the walk with mediocre veterans and free agents.

Toronto added five players in the pre-season--Josh J, Reyes,Dickey,Bonaficio and Buerhle--for a total of $43.5 M. The Red Sox added 8 players--Dempster,Victorino,Drew,Napoli,Gomes,Uehara, Ross and Hanrahan--for a total of about $56.6M. I put a net salary of $3.5M on Hanrahan, because they traded some salary for him. Now Toronto has been annointed as pre-season favorites by the media from their acquisitions, and the Red Sox haven't received much notice--despite apparently spending about $10-12M more than the Jays. Who got more bang for the buck? The Jays have the edge in starpower, and it looks as though the Jays have improved their pitching more as well--in starters, anyways. That's spending about $10 M less.

He lost movement on his knuckler in the 2nd inning and his pitches were coming in high. Probably mechanics. You wonder why the pitching coach wasn't out there on the mound earlier in the inning. It was pretty obvious he was a different pitcher after the 1st batter or two.

Ellsbury has been incredibly unlucky with injuries the last few years. Boras must have had a few sleepless nights over it. I still can't forgive Epstein for that dumb decision to move him to LF and pay 38yo Cameron $15mil to play CF---a guy who was damaged goods when they signed him for 2 years. It was an early sign of Epstein's mental demise. Last night, during the game, Remy said the major league level is no place to change positions--it's too hard. Much easier younger and at lower levels. I wonder if the Red Sox front office heard that. They like to move players around positions like musical chairs. Another reason why I don't like them.

On DeLaRosa, I thought he didn't throw enough heat, and left a lot of pitches high. Seemed to be concentrating on his off speed stuff. His fast ball does move, and he'll be good. Probably good enough for their rotation right now--but they have a bunch of crap ahead of him.

Knuckler sharp first inning, but straightened out and left high the 2nd inning. Had to be taken out. DeLaRosa belongs in their rotation right now, but it's the Red Sox.

Farrell just said DeLaRosa will start the season in Portland or Pawtucket. Portland? He's better than half the Red Sox starters right now. But he has options and there are salaries ahead of him. That's why they suck. They have a lot of depth in the lineup with those veterans they've signed, but they will go nowhere unless their starting pitching improves. They better put a short leash on DeLaRosa--they are going to need him soon--options, salaries or no.

Middlebrooks is OK, so there's no apparent need for another 3B option unless he has further problems.

You don't figure Bradley to stick unless Ellsbury gets traded or there's an injury. Plus they will want to extend his "control" time--which is important these days. A new stat cropping up on the fantasy sites is the performance against different levels of pitching in ST. For example, what's Bradley hitting this spring against major league pitchers, AAA pitchers, etc.? If the kid is hitting ML pitchers, that's the important stat the FO looks at. Same with pitchers facing hitters--major vs minor league hitters. ST performance can be misleading, so the above analysis is helpful in determining how ready a minor leaguer is for the major leagues--or for promotion to a higher level in the minor leagues.It's probably also helpful in assessing performance of major leaguers as well.

They should trade Ells by the end of ST, if he shows any hitting. Victorino looks like he can bat leadoff--he's a very good player if he can revert to Phillies form. He can run--he and Pedey can be real sparkplugs at the top of the lineup. With Ells, you hold your breath for the next injury. This is a complicated team to figure out. They have plugged all their holes with FAs, so there is no room to give any prospects a chance if they show something in ST. They are no.4 in salaries in the majors right now, which means the money stays on the roster--the prospects stay in the minors, unless there are injuries--which gave Middlebrooks a chance last year. That's the way they operate.

Good luck to Youk this year. He may be in decline, but he sure took the Yankees to the cleaners for $13 mil.

The Yankees are always overrated in the media. First, NY is the sports media center (though Fox sports west is trying to change that). Second, it's a safe bet they will go out and buy what they need to stay competitive. That's the way they have operated for years--despite Cashman's resistance. You wonder about this year, though. Age may be catching up to them. Forget Grandy's injury--he'll be back early May. That's been overplayed by the media. You turn on MLB TV now during ST--you get the Mets and the Yankees almost every day. TV needs those extra advertising profits that come out of NY.