mvp 78

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-take-a-chance-on-joely-rodriguez-with-incentive-laden-deal/ FanGraphs did a write up of Joely today. A deal full of incentives and options makes sense for a pitcher like Rodríguez. For one thing, he comes with minor injury concerns after a shoulder problem kept him off the Mets’ postseason roster. Finally, in 2021, Rodríguez got his chance at a full major league season, only to fall victim to an elevated .355 batting average on balls in play. His BABIP was 65 ticks higher than the league average, and it was the sixth-highest figure among relievers with at least 40 IP. He finished the season with a 4.66 ERA, despite his 3.43 FIP. His BABIP came down to earth in 2022, but a new problem sprung up in its place: bequeathed runners. Of the 28 runs attributed to Rodríguez’s line, 14 crossed the plate after he had already left the game. Relievers inherited 35 baserunners from him (17 in scoring position) and allowed 40% of them to score. For context, the average reliever allowed only 32% of inherited runners to score in 2022. Poor Rodríguez was left looking at a ghastly earned run average for the second straight year; his 4.47 ERA was more than a full run higher than his FIP and xFIP. Thus, the stats on the back of Rodríguez’s baseball card over the past two seasons — a 4–7 record, a 4.56 ERA, and two blown saves in three chances — don’t paint him in the best light. The underlying data, however, tell us he’s a much better pitcher than the traditional stats suggest. Since 2021, Rodríguez has a 3.33 FIP, which places him among the top 30% of relievers (min. 50 IP). His 3.44 xFIP positions him among the top 20%. With those numbers in mind, the Red Sox are betting Rodríguez has more success keeping runs off the board in 2023. The left-hander’s biggest asset is his ability to limit home runs. That should come in handy for the Red Sox, whose pitching staff finished last season with the second-highest home run rate in the AL. Rodríguez has allowed only seven long balls over the past two years, good for 0.65 HR/9 in 107 appearances. His secret is simple but effective: he keeps the ball on the ground and prevents hard contact. The article then compares Joely with the overpaid Robert Suarez.

Contreras had a bad year behind the plate. He doesn't frame well at all. His carrying tool is his bat.

Santana would be the primary DH, plays a good 1B and is a good platoon option for Casas against tough LHP. For 7M, I think it's a pretty good deal. I can see him being over 1 fWAR next season.

@redsoxpayroll Duquette 94-02 (no WS) Theo 03-11 (04,07 WS) Cherrington 11-15 (13 WS) Dombro 15-19 (18 WS) Bloom 19-present (no WS) Prior to Bloom, the last 3 won a WS in their first 3 years. Duquette didn't in 9 years. Not defending, just think the impatient vitriol is interesting right now.

My post was using sarcasm. Or not.

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/soxprospectscom-end-of-season-rankings_0147498655.html 30-21 posted. 28. Ronaldo Hernandez Preseason Rank: 28 2022 Stats: 105 games, 439 PA, .261/.298/.451, 17 HR, 21 BB, 92 @ Worcester Hernandez is ranked 28th, exactly where he was at the start of the season.

Oh, so you want a guy that the Phillies CUT?!?!?

I think the Joely signing is fine.

Option 2. Why Abreu???

I mean, I hope Abreu wasn't the #1 outside target. It just doesn't make sense that he's the #1 target.

@JonHeyman Jose Abreu was Boston’s No. 1 outside target. The Red Sox met with him as soon as free agency opened. This better not have been the case.

No.

Pass. I'd rather have Bogey or Correa.

Montero Santana

Whitlock was a great pick, but without Andriese teaching him the changeup grip, maybe he's not the same pitcher? We'll never know. With all the reliever churn since Bloom has been here, the only success story being Schreiber is pretty scary.

If you are going to build through your farm, you need to either extend your players, replace them with in house options or trade them before their contract runs out. Players Bloom has extended: Whitlock Barnes? Players Bloom has replaced with in house options: Moreland>Dalbec>Casas Plawecki>Wong Wacha>Bello Misc Relievers>AAA squad Players Bloom as traded: Betts>Verdugo Extending QO's to Bogey and Eovaldi isn't going to replenish the farm the way trading them a year earlier would. Letting guys like JD walk out the door isn't going to help the future.

McGuire ended the year with the same amount of fWAR as Vaz had, but with 150 less PA's. He was 17th best in the league. That's starter level.

If he was hired to find gems in the rough, he's done a pretty miserable job of it.

German still isn't ready as he doesn't have any secondary pitches. Walter will be 26 and has 7 innings above AA. He has an MLB caliber arm, but I'm not sure it's going to be much better than what Winckowski showed in 2022. Murphy is probably a bullpen arm. He got hit around in AAA last season. I'm not sold that he's an upgrade over Crawford or Winckowski. The rotation is currently: Sale Paxton Bello Pivetta Whitlock If they add Kodai Senga or Corey Kluber, the rotation looks a little better. I'm not sure they can count on both Sale AND Paxton to be in the rotation. Then having Hill as a 2nd half signing would make sense for a stretch run.

I'm not sure that's saying much at all especially since they are still looking for a starting catcher apparently.

I disagree that he was hired to find gems in the rough. He was hired to rebuild the farm system and to keep the big club competitive until the ecosystem could sustain itself rather than constantly need to grab outside FA's. However: 1. BOS hasn't been good the whole time he's been here 2. The prospects he's traded for haven't really lit the world on fire 3. The Sox haven't been good at retaining their own talent so rebuilding from their farm may be a fruitless endeavor anyway

They threw a combined 147 innings last season. They'd have to get a lot of bulk innings at some point to get there.

@redsoxstats Ryan Fernandez gets a nice write-up in the BA Rule 5 preview. @IanCundall mentioned his breakout and big time pitch metrics this summer. Finished the year out with elbow soreness. Thad Ward also makes the BA list with back-end starter upside. I can't remember the last time 2 prospects were noted as being potential Rule 5 selections. We'll see who can sneak through. Draft is next Monday.

If you're going to add the Barnes extension, you should put the Whitlock extension in there. The Story contract is fine. Unless he gets a career ending injury, he should be worth the money even if he plays 2b. The do-overs would be Paxton, Richards, Diekman. Those were fairly low stakes though.

I think Winckowski or Crawford could take a step forward, but I don't think it's likely. Maybe they can do it in a bullpen role? The guys with the "impact" arms in the system are Bello, Mata, Wikelman and Perales. Only two have a shot to play a role in the short term. German, Fernandez and Wallace have velo, but various concerns.