Jayhawk Bill

There's no shame in being a 26-year-old dominating a AA-level league if there's no AAA or MLB-level team in the system. Lefty Grove led his league in strikeouts for four consecutive years when he was with the Orioles--back when the Orioles were an unaffiliated AAA-level team. If you're stuck by contract with a team, all you can do is dominate where you play, which is what Matsuo has done. You make me a better man, ksushi. I didn't think that I could answer that question for you, but here's what I think you need: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.iblj.co.jp/&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=15&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2522shikoku%2Bkyushu%2Bisland%2Bleague%2522%26num%3D100%26hl%3Den%26rls%3DGFRC,GFRC:2006-49,GFRC:en seems to be a translation of the Shikoku-Kyushu Island League 2007 pitching stats. http://www.iblj.co.jp/player/rank_p02.html is the original site. I'm troubled that just four, not six teams are listed...but this seems to be the link. The mean here is deceptive--it makes Matsuo look too good. The replacement-level player in this league is much worse than the core talent level. Look at it this way: there are just 12 pitchers listed with over 100 IP. Here's the distribution pattern of their ERAs: 1.00-1.99: 3 2.00-2.99: 6 3.00-3.99: 1 4.00-4.99: 2 Matsuo is roughly a run better than league norm--not league mean--in ERA. *** So what? Let's go from data analysis to SWAG: what's a reasonable MLE? Assumptions: 1) Shikoku-Kyushu Island League's core talent is roughly AA-level. I feel pretty good about this: they stocked their teams with recent NPB castoffs, which should define a level one notch below NPB. NPB itself is higher than AAA, so assuming a AA level seems slightly conservative. 2) An average MLB-affiliated AA League would have a league ERA around 4.50, roughly the same as MLB. 3) Matsuo is one run below league norm. 4) Hitters lose about 15% of their SLG and OBP making a direct jump from AA to MLB; conversely, pitchers should see ERAs increase by about 1/(.85^2), or roughly 38%. All that would leave Matsuo in the just-under 5.00 ERA range as an MLB starter. Meh. It's a SWAG. :dunno: It still looks as if Matsuo is an MLB-level talent: starting pitchers who can post ERAs around 5.00 aren't superstars, but they can find MLB jobs. If he were to translate better than I'm projecting, then he's definitely worth keeping as a future 4/5 starter. If he were just a little worse...well, his catcher hit .322 in their league, so maybe...

Oh, poooey. OK, this guy's ERA for the past three seasons: 2005: 1.30 3-2 (14 SV, closer) 2006: 1.82 11-2 (4 SV, transition to starter) 2007: 1.72 15-3 http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/松尾晃雅 This is from the Shikoku-Kyushu League, representing the second and third-biggest Japanese islands by population. NPB is a little higher than AAA equivalent, so call this AA: it's still pretty impressive to post an ERA below 2.00 three consecutive years along with a 29-7 W/L record. Pitchers are hard to predict, but I don't doubt that he has MLB-level skill. The question is whether or not he can translate that talent into results an ocean, a continent and a language barrier away from home. *** ksushi, great thoughts on this issue. :thumbsup:

I disagree. As a Red Sox fan, I'm looking for another AL East victory and a great postseason. As an analyst, given Boston's current issues, I'm looking at the Yankees taking the AL East by five or six games, with Boston in a tight race for the Wild Card with either Detroit or Cleveland, whichever is second in the AL Central.

I expect that Manny will have a contract year this season, and that, barring injury, he'll be back with Boston in 2009. Either .300/.400/.500 or .270/.400/.500 in 150 games seems reasonable, although not guaranteed. PECOTA has .273/.376/.497 ...not too far off, and PECOTA doesn't have "contract year" as an input. Expecting that two years in a row...no, sorry, that's below a 50% chance, IMO. Manny isn't a good defender, and he's got to hit very well to be worth $20 million a year. There are signs this spring that his swing is a little slower despite his excellent off-season work...at some point his OBP is going to decline.

I've gotta guess that they did that in a vain attempt to ensure that the winner actually went to the game--that the tickets weren't scalped.

Yeah, thanks. Of course, this means that I win the statistical argument and you win the "Greater Gentleman and More Supportive Forum Member and Bigger Contributor to the Online Community" contest. :clap:

W-L record is the most important stat for determining who actually wins the Cy Young Award. Ask Bartolo Colon. What argument? My listing of Mussina's place rankings in eight Cy Young votes? I regard your position as, albeit not insane, unresearched. How many wins does it take to lead a league? In 2006, it took 16 wins to lead the NL...from 1996 to 2008, it's taken between 16 and 24 wins, with a mode of 21 wins. How many games does Mussina start in a year? His median for the last three years is 30, with a high of 32. For an upside, 33 starts hardly seems a stretch. In what percentage of games do Cy Young contenders get decisions? The pitchers lucky enough to contend get decisions in, remarkably, 85-90% of their starts. For an upside year, let's award Mussina 29 decisions. How good can Mussina be? Certainly a run average (not an ERA--an RA) of 4.00 is WELL within reach. How good can the Yankees be? Chien-Ming Wang got 6.47 runs of support per game last year...that's certainly not a stretch. How well would Mussina be expected to do with those stats? He'd win roughly 72% of his games. What are the chances of a pitcher getting a certain number of wins if he got 29 decisions and he had a 72% chance of winning each one? 16 2% 17 5% 18 8% 19 12% 20 15% 21 16% 22 15% 23 12% 24 8% 25 4% 26 2% I think that Mike Mussina might possibly contend for one of the top six W-L Records in the AL. Probably true! But not certainly true...both history and analysis suggest a frightening possible upside for Mussina. Rather than being needlessly surprised should the Yankees' version of Glenn Close emerge from the bathtub killing mad, I'd rather be aware of the outside chance as a worst-case scenario while taking pleasure in Bartolo Colon's reasonably good spring through his first four batters today and Mussina's adequate but uninspiring spring.

I've always suspected that Spud Chandler was juicing. And Jamie Moyer. And Jim Perry. And Warren Spahn (especially Warren Spahn). And Bert Blyleven. And Preacher Roe. And Lefty Grove. And Steve Carlton. And maybe Roger Clemens, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, David Cone and Nolan Ryan. And certainly Gaylord Perry--heck, you could see the tobacco juice stains he left on the ball! Those are all pitchers who had very good seasons at age 38. There are more: I think that I've made my point. But Mike Mussina is going to be 39--let's look at age 39, and let's be a little more critical--let's look for comeback seasons from an ERA+ around or under 100. Early Wynn went from 14-16 at age 38 to 22-10 at age 39, dropping his ERA by almost a run...Rick Reuschel's bad year was at age 37, not age 38, but he came back from a 9-16 record to a 19-11 record at age 39...David Wells went from 5-7 at age 38 to 19-7 at age 39...Kenny Rogers went from 13-8 to 18-9 at age 39...Sal Maglie went from 9-7 to 13-5, with an ERA+ of 140 and 191 IP at age 39...Fergie Jenkins went from 5-8 to 14-15, with an ERA+ of 118 and 217 IP, for the hapless 1982 Cubs, at age 39...Don Sutton went from 8-13 to 14-12 at age 39...and let's not forget that Connie Marrero improved in ERA+ at ages 39, 40 and 41, probably hitting his peak at age 40. Gaylord Perry, of course, won a Cy Young at age 39, but he pitched well at age 38, too, and we all now know that he juiced. Curt Schilling went from 8-8 to 15-7 at age 39. Mussina's 90th percentile PECOTA is a 3.60 ERA in 174 IP. That would probably put him in the top 20 pitchers in the AL. There's roughly a 10% chance that Mussina would do even better, if you follow PECOTA. When one does better than being in the top 20, it's not a far reach to one's being a Cy Young candidate...particularly in New York, particularly with the Yankees batting order scoring your runs for you. I expect Mussina to pitch more innings. Right now I think that it's nip-and-tuck which one will end up with a better ERA--but keep in mind that Colon was a throwaway for a reason, and that he's far too heavy for his role. But your challenge regarded my estimation of upside for Mussina. I've given you several cases of pitchers who CAME BACK at age 39. There are more who simply did well: these are all pitchers who had been mediocre to bad, but who had regained their greatness. My list isn't inclusive: there are probably more. I'm shocked that you would even suggest such a thing. No, I'm serious: Mike Mussina's UPSIDE is Cy Young-contending caliber. It's just that I don't see Mussina approaching his upside...hope that I'm right on that account.

Ummmm....no. Not even close. Please don't make me "go stats." What IS true is that Colon's upside is more valuable than Mussina's likely value, and that Colon looks to be headed for an upside season after two very disappointing years. :thumbsup:

Do you realize how good a defender Kevin Cash is? BP has him as worth 10 runs or more to his team per 100 games in all three of his last MLB seasons. For a catcher, that's extraordinary, and that third season he did it mostly catching Tim Wakefield. Mirabelli was around 10 runs per 100 games below average in recent years...Cash is way better. :thumbsup: Regarding hitting, Cash's PECOTA projection is a .205/.278/.326 batting line. That's higher than his MLB career line, but it's appropriate to his MiLB career .247/.325/.422 batting line. That's better than his MLB stats--acquired in sporadic use--would lead one to expect. Furthermore, the ISOD and ISOP are pretty good...the BA understates his value. Let's give Kevin Cash a chance.

Cool! Jon Lester for Rookie of the Year!

Yeah, but Bard had cost Boston a game with his defense right before Theo pulled the trigger on the trade, IIRC.

Yes, but the overwhelming reason for that was BABIP. Wakefield's BABIP allowed with Mirabelli was .274, while with Cash it was .338. That can happen in small sample sizes, but it's not going to happen over a whole season--Wakefield's BABIP will probably regress to his norm, between .261 and .285 the past three seasons.

Yes. He's paid a few million dollars a year to support his team, and he's not helping it with these quotes to the media.

Boras cut a better deal for Hansen upon his signing. :dunno: It's possible that Papelbon has refused a multi-year contract deal and that the FO won't give him much over MLB minimum without his discussing his arb years. It's also possible that the FO knows that Papelbon's arm is hanging by a figurative thread, and that they figure that it all won't matter soon enough. I know that, when I researched his season-ending situation back in 2006, the odds didn't look good for his career.

I'm not sure, but I think that it's just enough to make Gom feel good about it. FWIW, I took a few minutes and posted my 2008 predictions over in that other thread. But since Rays' wins and Yankees' wins seem to be an issue here, my AL East prognostication, again: [table]AL East | | Red Sox | 97 | 65 Yankees | 96 | 66 Blue Jays | 83 | 79 Rays | 82 | 80 Orioles | 72 | 90[/table]

[table]AL East | | Red Sox | 97 | 65 Yankees | 96 | 66 Blue Jays | 83 | 79 Rays | 82 | 80 Orioles | 72 | 90 | | AL Central | | Guardians | 91 | 71 Tigers | 90 | 72 Twins | 75 | 87 White Sox | 74 | 88 Royals | 70 | 92 | | AL West | | Angels | 87 | 75 Athletics | 81 | 81 Mariners | 76 | 87 Rangers | 74 | 88 | | NL East | | Mets | 93 | 69 Braves | 86 | 76 Phillies | 86 | 76 Marlins | 75 | 87 Nationals | 72 | 90 | | NL Central | | Cubs | 87 | 75 Brewers | 85 | 77 Reds | 77 | 85 Cardinals | 74 | 88 Astros | 71 | 91 Pirates | 69 | 93 | | NL West | | Dodgers | 88 | 74 Rockies | 87 | 75 Diamondbacks | 82 | 80 Padres | 82 | 80 Giants | 74 | 88 [/table]

Best franchise, not best current team, only two 2007 All Stars: C: Geovany Soto 1B: Daric Barton 2B: Robinson Cano 3B: Ryan Zimmerman SS: Hanley Ramirez LF: BJ Upton CF: Curtis Granderson RF: Jay Bruce DH: Ryan Braun SP: Johan Santana (AL All Star) SP: Brandon Webb (NL All Star) SP: Scott Kazmir SP: Felix Hernandez SP: Jamie Shields Closer: Joba Chamberlain

Just wanted to quote you to capture your words for the future. We'll see.