Jayhawk Bill

Hmmm...let's check Manny's April splits. [table]Year | BA | OBP | SLG Career | 0.313 | 0.398 | 0.579 2001 | 0.408 | 0.482 | 0.735 2002 | 0.346 | 0.495 | 0.679 2003 | 0.343 | 0.424 | 0.539 2004 | 0.388 | 0.448 | 0.647 2005 | 0.274 | 0.386 | 0.607 2006 | 0.276 | 0.417 | 0.448 2007 | 0.202 | 0.314 | 0.315 2008 (to date) | 0.338 | 0.397 | 0.676[/table] Manny's April doesn't especially stand out on a career basis, or even when contrasted to his 2001-2004 April stats. It does stand out relative to his 2005-2007 April stats. One possible explanation is that he got soft and that his willingness to work out in the offseason was exaggerated by the media in 2005-2007, but that he's dedicated himself again in 2008 as he works to earn his first $20 million option year in 2009.

I would love to see that scenario......but there are a few problems: Lugo is a hog, even if the Sox eat half of the money, how many teams want to pay that much for a below average SS, who should not be an everyday player. Crisp almost falls in to the same category. He is making good money for what he actually produces offensively. Carter is an unknown, an aging unknown at that. At 25 years old, without a defensive position, I would think that limits them to AL teams only, and it is too early to tell who is in it, or out of it....plus, a smaller market team may be interested in Carter, but not paying the salaries of Lugo and Crisp, so I think that type of package hurts them. Add in the fact that the Sox need BP help, as just about every team does......and those teams competing for the playoffs will not deal BP pitchers, and small market teams wont pay those salaries........all this adds up to one big mess. I disagree. Let's contrast, for each player, BP MORP* vs. salary over the obligated period...completely discounting Carter's arb years for simplicity and, to be conservative, rounding to the nearest million. Carter: + $3 million Crisp: + $10 million Lugo: - $9 million Lugo at half of the money: + $5 million Carter appears to be a ready-made lethal weapon against RHP who, regrettably, cannot play defense well...but his damage would be limited at first base and nil at DH. IMO, Boston should have David Ortiz on the DL and Chris Carter on the roster right now against right-handed starting pitchers. If he hit .300/.360/.500 vs. RHP as I'd expect, you might feel differently. Crisp, setting aside the positive MORP, is a superb defensive CF. As the numbers demonstrate, he's very far from a throwaway. Lugo isn't worth his contract. He IS worth over half of his contract--despite our high standards, he's a valuable shortstop. Carter + Crisp + Lugo (half salary) is worth a very, very good player...a best pre-free agency player for most MLB teams, were the talent to fit. Let's not diminish the talent of our team's ballplayers through some perversion of hubris--Carter, Crisp and Lugo can all contribute to a contending team. * MORP: Money Over Replacement Player, or the contract value of the player on the free agent market.

From SoxProspects.com: Caveats: Thurston steals bases, but with a success rate barely over 50%. He actually peaked in walks per year back in 2000--his plate discipline is average and not improving. In 58 MLB AB over four different seasons he's hit .259/.286/.345, suggesting that he's a slap hitter with little plate discipline or power. Looking at his recent AAA stats I'd guess that he'd hit around .260/.300/.380, so I don't think that he'll surprise us much relative to his previous MLB work. Defensively, he's an adequate second baseman...that stuff at SS and LF was just 37 games at SS and 22 games in LF, plus four games in CF/RF. From BP PECOTA: Thurston has no PECOTA forecast--he isn't considered important enough to warrant one. He didn't even get a Marcel. If Thurston does anything, we should consider ourselves lucky. Look for Tito to get him into a game very soon, as he tries to do with new guys...let's hope that he doesn't use him too much.

Pardon my late response, but the irony of a Yankee Fan posting under the handle "26 to 6" writing these words is significant. *** FWIW, Boston had fewer people tested positive in its system over the duration of the current program (1) than any other MLB team, IIRC. I'd agree to the point that PED use was and is more prevalent than we can yet document, but I'm not sure that I'd call everybody guilty. *** For my fellow Red Sox fans, a caution: The Yankees are one of the two best teams in MLB. Let's acknowledge their slow start and let's point to obvious flaws, but let's not escalate to the point of hubris, lest our 86-year Greek tragedy resume. Today, advantage Boston. Let's see what tonight brings...I'm sure that the grounds crew are soaking the infield grass at Yankee Stadium as I type this post.

Just as good as a bunt. Edit: Much funnier had I beat TheKilo to the post.

Gotta be the shortest fly ball base hit of Julio Lugo's career.

Nice fielding play by Lowrie to start the inning-ending double play. Just two runs allowed--still a close game.

Has Boston ever had a baserunner more exciting than Jacoby Ellsbury?

Pardon. The level of significance cited was 1.6 runs per year--a hundredth of a run per game. There may be an effect below that. Everything that you posted, where semi-factual, was within the context of an effect that small. Is that your f***ing point? You think that the one-onehundredth of a run per game is so critical as to try to make it your point? An effect unproven even at that level, but not yet disproven at that level of insignificance? I will continue to do so. In your case, it is too late.

I might, possibly; you are clearly a poster of discriminating taste, and my opinions are often strongly phrased. *** YMMV: Your Mileage May Vary.

Concur--but the only thing that the Pads have that they might be willing to trade and that Boston might want at the MLB level would be Greene, and that would be Crisp plus Lugo for Greene, increasing the Padres' salary structure significantly. Accepting prospects would hurt Boston's chances in 2008, and I don't like the Padres' system much, but I'd consider a package of Mitch Canham, Matt Latos and Will Inman: one of those three, probably Latos, will eventually reach MLB and do OK, but it would be a couple of years before Boston would reap any return on investment. Matt Antonelli of St. John's Prep would be nice, but he'd be blocked by Pedroia, who's similar and probably better; Chase Headly has old-player skills, and Boston can buy those skills more effectively...Headly would be blocked by Lowell, Manny and Big Papi. Chicago could be Coco's potential home. The White Sox will learn that Swisher isn't a true CF, so they might offer something. More to the point, the Cubs don't trust Felix Pie to start for some reason, and the Cubs need to win NOW: Felix Pie might be available for Coco Crisp plus, say, two mid-range pitching prospects. The locations that intrigue me are Oakland and Minnesota. Oakland could definitely use a good CF, and they're surprise AL West contenders thus far. Oakland's system is rich with trade talent after last winter, so they might be able to offer the best package. Minnesota is discovering that Carlos Gomez isn't ready for The Show and that their team is ahead of both Detroit and Cleveland halfway through April, so they might dip into their solid pool of MiLB talent for Crisp if they remain competitive for a while. We shouldn't give Crisp away, but if Boston is offered a good package he's not irreplaceable, either. He's a good MLB starting CF--if Boston is offered that fair value, they should accept it. Furthermore, there were rumblings preseason about Crisp wanting (demanding?) a trade--this era of good feelings may be short-lived, and future rumors will again lower his value. I'd be open to offers were I Theo. Of course, YMMV.

Who thought coming into tonight that Mike Timlin would get another win in his MLB career, let alone tonight?

With a scoreless inning pitched, Timlin lowers his ERA to 20.25.

Tokyo Dome is 344 to straightaway right (361 to deep right-center); there was no headwind inside the dome; the ball was 20-30 feet over the fence (sorry, Hit Tracker didn't give an exact measurement). Since you said "any MLB stadium," I'll pick PETCO: 387 feet to right field (402 to the deepest point in right center), 43 feet further than the Tokyo Dome, and with air conditions that kill fly balls. Are you still sure? Boston and Oakland had combined for 16 home runs in 26 games coming into tonight's action. Five of those sixteen home runs were hit in the two games in the Tokyo Dome. I'm saying that it's a home run hitter's park with MLB teams competing there; of course, YMMV, regardless of a very strongly suggestive small sample.

Good call by Terry Francona.

I expect that in five years the revenues from new Yankee Stadium and the huge New York media market (and YES network) will result in the Yankees' being able to afford a better payroll, and ballclub, than Boston will have. Right now? I'd take Boston's staff, but it's close, especially if Schilling doesn't come back by September.

Either very gutsy or very lucky...:dunno:

Strongly concur--but it's a rainy night with a gusty right-to-left wind...:dunno:

This rain strongly favors the Yankees and Wang: it's as if he were playing in the Bronx and they'd soaked the infield for him.

Don'tcha love the hardened criminal stare that Clay Buchholz has in his pic? :thumbsup: *** Certainly Wang's got a good ERA this April. Still, one must consider these points: 1) He's pitching his first road game tonight. Last year his ERA was 2.16 runs higher on the road than it was pitching in Yankee Stadium. Remember that Wang has a career 6.17 ERA in Fenway, too. 2) His BABIP allowed has been .250 thus far in 2008. That won't last, especially outside of the Bronx. His career split is a .263 BABIP allowed at home and a .318 on the road--more of those ground balls will get through for hits in Boston. 3) While his ERA is 1.38, his xFIP (a measure of expected ERA from walks, strikeouts and fly balls allowed, which correlates better with future ERA han current ERA does) is 3.02 thus far in 2008. That's roughly the same as his 2.75 home ERA last season--I think that we're looking at the same old Chien-Ming Wang. *** Should be a good game. Disregard the W/L records: these are the two best teams in baseball. IMO, Boston needs to win the season series with the Yankees to have a realistic shot at the AL East title--it may be April, but this is a big game.