Jayhawk Bill

FWIW, Beckett was cheated on ball-strike calls a net of three times (5-2), MDC's pitches were all called right, and, excepting Lowrie, Shields had been cheated a net of two times (5-3). Both outside pitches to Lowrie in the eighth inning missed the rulebook strike zone by roughly half a foot. For some reason, Dale Scott just wanted to give Jed Lowrie a strikeout--this was no accident. The rest of the game looks more or less fair and accurate.

I'll try to find the time to pull the Pitch f/x stats tomorrow. Beckett got a couple of strikeouts, too: the zone might've been large but "fair," although widening the strike zone actually hurts Boston badly because our batters have the best discipline in MLB.

Just the way everybody carefully considered that he might improve with age before responding to my research and analysis last winter? ORS, as a guy who understands statistics and research well, you know very well the frustrations of those who try to point out long-term probabilities that run counter to current stat lines. I've been there--but right now I'm bringing up what I wrote about Melky before Spring Training started, which now seems pretty solid forecasting. That seems eminently fair to me. If this happens to be just an unprecedented hot streak, not an indication that he's developed power, well...exactly what are folks going to post that they didn't already post last winter, when they were assuming that Melky wouldn't get better with age? :dunno:

Doing pretty well for an average CF, IMO. YMMV.

No...it's what Astros fans (and many Red Sox fans) would see as fair.:dunno: Salaries are almost always forgotten by fans, and occasionally forgotten by GMs, when evaluating trades.

How does one evaluate a trade? When I do it, I look at two things: 1) Just the talent flowing both ways must be about even for a blockbuster trade. Fans won't tolerate losing a superstar unless they see equivalent talent coming back in return, although that talent can be split into 2-3 players who will all make the team and contribute. 2) The multi-year value of the talent, less the price of the talent, most be roughly equal over the periods of obligated service for the respective players. Those two aspects seem incompatible for Oswalt. Oswalt is guaranteed $60 million from 2008-2011, counting his buyout. Right now his VORP for 2008 is negative 1.8 runs, suggesting that he's pitching at roughly the AAA level this month. OK, such things happen. But looking at his pre-season predictions, PECOTA suggests that he'd only be worth $44 million over the next four years, suggesting a negative trade value. As good as Oswalt is, he's not worth his contract. Boston is rich enough to take a few superstars for more than their fair market value--it's tough to contend in MLB if you don't overpay a few critical acquisitions. Boston may have done that with Mike Lowell last winter, just as New York may have done that with Posada. Oswalt may be valuable, even if overpaid. But giving away a package of talent such as Masterson, Lowrie and Moss for Oswalt is the stuff disasters are made of...and giving Houston much less isn't necessarily viable because Houston couldn't explain the move to their fans. Accordingly, I don't see a deal for Boston here.

OK, I was wrong--or, at the least, incomplete--here. In fairness to Dan Iassogna and MLB, I'll post what I've learned. I went through every pitch of the game using the actual MLB-norm called strike zone width. In the at bat in question, while Iassogna "blew" the call, he had blown another in the other direction two pitches earlier. The pitch was outside the actual strike zone by two inches, and outside the "called" strike zone by a quarter-inch. That called strike should've been a ball. Over the entire game, Iassogna "gave" Buchholz six calls and "took away" five calls. He "gave" Buchholz a "free" strike to each of the next two batters, too, as two of those six cited calls. Yes, in isolation that particular call we all saw changed the game, and the pitch was five inches inside the zone--but it's important to show the context in which that call was made. *** Tough loss, nonetheless. Pitch f/x raw data file, XML format, for Buchholz last night: http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_04/day_26/gid_2008_04_26_bosmlb_tbamlb_1/pbp/pitchers/453329.xml

This is a case where Pitch f/x proves that an umpire's bad call decided a ballgame. It wasn't a borderline pitch--Iassogna made the wrong call.

Isn't 2001-02 soon after 1999 from the perspective of 2008? :dunno:

If Casey is down and Ortiz is scratched, where's Chris Carter?

Except for that .000 batting average in the AL. Kinda makes a good start for an MVP-level NL player (and this entire AL vs. NL theme), doesn't it? Josh Bard, AL: .240 in 513 AB Josh Bard, NL: .297 in 697 AB ( as of this morning) Amazing what 184 extra at bats can do after the first 513...whooops, no, he immediately rocked the NL in 2006. You're right. He was better in BA, OBP and SLG the next year at Houston, just as his three-year average at San Diego had been far better. He was injured the year before coming to Boston, missing 57 games, and he still had an OPS one point better (and an OPS+ a whopping 14 points better before and 9 points better after Boston). Just sayin'...you realize that his OPS+ has DOUBLED from the mean of his last two seasons with Boston, right? And here I'll hit those players you chose to overlook: Derek Lowe: 2004 (BOS) 5.42 ERA 2005 (LA) 3.61 ERA Bronson Arroyo 2005 (BOS) 4.51 ERA 2005 (CIN) 3.29 ERA Alan Embree 2005 (BOS/NY) 7.62 ERA 2006 (SD) 3.27 ERA Mike Remlinger 2005 (BOS) 14.85 ERA 2006 (ATL) 4.03 ERA Jason Johnson 2006 (BOS) 7.36 ERA 2006 (CIN) 3.12 ERA J. T. Snow 2005 (SFG) 86 OPS+ 2006 (BOS) 44 OPS+ J. D. Drew 2006 (LA) 126 OPS+ 2007 (BOS) 105 OPS+ Joel Pineiro 2007 (BOS) 5.03 ERA 2007 (STL) 3.96 ERA Wily Mo Pena 2007 (BOS) 72 OPS+ 2007 (WSH) 124 OPS+ David Wells 2006 (BOS) 4.98 ERA 2006 (SD) 3.49 ERA I guess that you don't address what you can't explain...and that you're on shaky ground on what you do choose to address. Do you really want me to reverse-engineer BP PECOTA? I say that your position is crap, and I further say that if you'd had a reasonable position your comeback wouldn't have just been shattered as absurd. We're talking about current value. Youkilis is among the top ten first basemen--I peg him at number seven, but the issue is whether he's higher than number ten. I say that he is--do you really want to dispute that? :dunno:

Ball Four.

ksushi, I think that we're differing in four key areas: 1) NL to AL equivalence. The two leagues aren't equivalent right now--the AL is much stronger. You're asking for a list of guys thriving in the NL more than the AL...just from very recent seasons in Boston, I offer: Hanley Ramirez Derek Lowe Bronson Arroyo Alan Embree Cla Meredith Josh Bard Edgar Renteria Mike Remlinger Jason Johnson JT Snow JD Drew Joel Pineiro Mark Loretta Wily Mo Pena Gabe Kapler David Wells Do I have to go on? I believe that the ALE of NL batters is about 0.95 now...I could reverse-engineer BP PECOTA for something more exact. That's huge--that makes a .300 hitter in the NL a .285 hitter in the AL. That's why I check Interleague stats, and that's why I discounted Adrian Gonzalez for his mediocrity facing the AL. There are AAA players who simply can't make the jump to MLB--I see Gonzalez as an NL player who hasn't demonstrated the ability to make the jump to AL play. 2) Home Park Effect. Fenway suppresses power hitting, a number of ballparks accentuate power hitting, and there's a tendency to emphasize power hitting of first basemen as the key component of their value. The Park Factor of Coors Field for home runs was 1.218 last year--a batter who would hit 10 home runs in a neutral MLB ballpark would hit 12 playing all of his games at Coors Field. Wrigley was 1.150; Fenway was 0.876. Comparing Youkilis to Helton and Lee without considering BOTH the AL-to-NL effect and the home park effect is grossly unfair...and, remember, some batters--including both Lee and Helton--benefit disproportionately from their home ballparks. Heck, even Adrian Gonzalez benefitted, odd though it seems...eleven of his thirty home runs last year were in just 26 games in Colorado, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Philly, four of the best home run parks in MLB. Kevin Youkilis got only two starts in those four ballparks. In two excellent HR ballparks in the AL East last year, Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards, he got a combined OBP of .519...and that degree of OBP outvalues the best SLG in the league. One must offer due credit to Youk's OBP, even though he has only medium power. As an aside, US Cellular in Chicago had a home run factor of 1.220 last year...Paul Konerko took advantage of that. 3) Age. I'm comparing Youkilis at his current age to other players at their current ages. That helps Youkilis with respect to Helton, Lee, and Konerko, who are declining with age. If we're using career peaks, you know that Jacko would've uttered the name "Giambi." He didn't--the standard of current value is clear. Helton was a better player than Youkilis will be, and Lee and Konerko may be on a career basis. I'm comparing all of them regarding true value in 2008, which includes both recent career value and current value. 4) Defense. Defense at first base CAN make a difference. I've considered fielding stats in my assessments--and Youkilis is a Gold Glove, while most first basemen are liabilities. Most of my evaluation and my explanations were based on hitting, but Youkilis can field his corner exceptionally well--it does matter. *** I count six, not eleven, better than Youkilis. Given that you use allegations of insanity in your post to me, could I respond by calling you insane to differ, without violating Talksox guidelines? Or, conversely, these factors considered, may we reach agreement that Youkilis is within the top ten? That gives you leeway to differ on a player or two, while we might still unite against the Herald of the Evil Empire.

I checked the Pitch f/x log. You're right: Hansen used two pitches, his slider and his fastball. The slider was never hit into fair territory, and it was the out pitch for the recorded strikeouts.

At least our stopper is pitching today. Edit: Career ERAs Buchholz 3.12 Beckett 3.76 Matsuzaka 4.24 Wakefield 4.33 Lester 4.81

Have I mentioned to this forum yet that I believe that John Henry is Nosferatu? I mean, it makes sense: he's tall, bony, and a whiter shade of pale; we never see him in the sunlight, only indoors or at night; he made his fortune by seemingly exerting an almost mystical control over the financial markets; and he's an associate of Larry Lucchino, whom we all know to be the spawn of Satan. And now, it seems that John Henry has used his young apprentice, the oddly-charismatic Theo Epstein, to raise Bryan Corey from the dead. A few Bryan Corey stats: PECOTA-projected ERA: 4.64 Actual 2008 ERA: 10.50 Let me use insight I've gleaned from decades of sabermetric analysis to explain the subtleties and ramifications of these numbers: 1) He's not expected to be good. 2) He's doing worse than expected. It's tough to blame Bryan Corey--heck, he's even starting to look a little bit pale, white, and undead. It's easy, however, to blame Theo Epstein and the front office. There are choices that might work: they could bring up a hot prospect, gambling development to give them a current chance in the bullpen in low-leverage low-stress situations; they could bring up an older, career minor leaguer of unknown MLB value and see what he could do; they could try to trade with a team already falling from contention for bullpen help. Instead, they're choosing to use Bryan Corey, a guy who clearly demonstrated his mediocrity over a season in Pawtucket last year* and who is showing further decline with age this year. Boston needs to use one of these other options. Returning a player claimed by nobody as he passed waivers to the MLB roster mere days later is futile--with time, he might "find himself," but he clearly hasn't done that. *** Mike Timlin was on the DL earlier this season. I had thought that he was on the "Disabled List," but his performance since his return has demonstrated that he was probably on the "Dead List" instead. A few Mike Timlin stats: PECOTA-projected ERA: 4.36 Actual 2008 ERA: 13.50 Analysis: 1) He's not expected to be very good. 2) He's doing much worse than expected. He's got to go. *** Options: Lee Gronkiewicz is looking good at Pawtucket, and it's now or never for a pitcher his age; Hansen had moments of brilliance mixed with minutes of frustration in his recent appearance--and that's better than Corey or Timlin can do. Plus, of course, Theo Epstein has a telephone, and there are already a half-dozen teams who might be looking to ditch reliable, more-or-less average relief pitchers for a "B" grade prospect, salary relief, and a roster spot for their youngsters. The Red Sox are contending, and Spring games count--we need to make a move. *** One last thought...has anybody else noticed that JD Drew is looking pale, thin, and drawn, and that he's been sleeping in this weird chamber? Just sayin...:dunno: * If a 33-year-old cannot dominate AAA, where the younger minor leaguers are still learning, he's going to be hit badly in MLB.

No, it's not: he played in the NL while Youk played in the AL, and away from his home field he could only hit .265/.352/.397, as you intentionally ignored. Take Lee out of Wrigley and he's mediocre. Read my post if you're going to bother answering. You ignored the huge home park effect of playing in Coors, and you ignored the NL to AL difference again. You also ignored his .264 start and his age...if Youkilis played for the Rockies, he'd be, by far, the better hitter in 2008. Oops...he already is the better hitter in 2008! Morneau has one good year, and it's not last year. Furthermore, you're ignoring defense and belittling the huge difference in OBP. Morneau was better in 2006, but Youkilis has been better since then (and before then). I counted Berkman as number six on your side. My only points were that he's not a career first baseman and that he's old. Did you bother to read my post? :dunno: Konerko's season was worth two wins less than Youkilis's season last year, source WARP1 from BP DT Cards. The OBP and the fielding matter. Calling Konerko better last year is absurd. Ignoring Konerko's grounded-flounder start to the 2008 season to try to insult a far better Red Sox player is, well... ...something I'd expect of a Yankees fan. :harhar: You're four short of ten still...other ideas?

Nice running catch by Drew--he looks better to me than he did vs. the Angels.

Certainly Youkilis would be EVEN MORE VALUABLE at third base, but the Red Sox, as constructed, are best as a team with Youkilis at first base and Lowell, healthy, at third base. So let's check those you considered to be better than Youkilis at first base. Carlos Pena, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder Concur. Albert Pujols may be the best player in MLB. Mark Teixeira is an excellent MVP-caliber first baseman. I'm less certain of Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder as candidates to MAINTAIN their excellence than Kevin Youkilis is. Frankly, all three of these guys are too big to play the field. Still, combining offense and defense, and taking the mean of likely outcomes, even with the dangers of swift decline due to their size, these three are probably more valuable than Youkilis. But OK...five. Nick Johnson You need to stop smoking crack. Nick Johnson had exactly one season out of five where he was better than Kevin Youkilis's current established level of excellence. Then Johnson was injured, missing a whole MLB season. He's now batting .209. Next... Lance Berkman Maybe. Two issues: 1) While Berkman is now playing first base, he's only played around 30% of his career games at first base. 2) Berkman is three years older than Youkilis, past his prime and at the age where decline is more likely. But OK...six. Derrek Lee Nope. Three things: 1) Derrek Lee's 2006 sucked due to injury. Avoiding injury is a skill--Youkilis appears to be better than Lee at that skill. 2) Derrek Lee hit .265/.352/.397 away from Wrigley Field in his comeback from that miserable 2006 last year. Were it not for his opportunity to play in one of the greatest hitter's parks in baseball history, he'd've been a mediocrity. 3) The NL is less competitive than the AL. Paul Konerko You missed the news: Konerko entered the decline phase of his career last year, and he's batting .203 this spring. He was worse than Youkilis last year, and he's much worse now. As an aside, Konerko has a 98-point OPS advantage playing at home. Justin Morneau The most overrated Minnesota MVP since Zoilo Versalles? Setting aside that Morneau will never play first base as well as Youk, he's had only one good year. He hits more home runs than Youk (as does Konerko), but home runs aren't the sole reckoning of value. Adrian Gonzalez I didn't count him in the 45 players better than Youk that I posted because his batting line in Interleague play is only .267/.307/.433. The NL West is weak--this is proof. Todd Helton At their respective peaks? Sure! At Helton's current age? Given his 178-point career OPS advantage playing in Denver, his advantage playing in the NL, and given his current batting line of .264/.366/.414, no. Miguel Cabrera Cabrera has played eight of his career 742 games at first base. *** I count six, not ten. We disagree.