Jayhawk Bill

Except for that open-source auditability thing...Dan Fox isn't using proprietary metrics, he's using run-expectancy tables for base-out situations. One can, if one chooses, check an entire season to audit his work. Whereas Jayson Blair's work for the NYT was notorious in that it didn't hold up to audit...slight difference. You should learn to appreciate the newer stats, Gom. Tell ya what--PM me if you want to make a point here on some future issue, and if I'm online I'll offer you stats (if available) before you post. You'll learn faster if you're not trying to discredit, but rather using newer stats to advantage, and we're here to discuss and learn, not necessarily to argue. FWIW, here's the run-expectancy table for MLB 2007: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204022 That may give you a better idea of how this stuff is done.

But you've already come to that conclusion. Included; EqHAR (Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs) includes all cases of changes in run expectancy because players took extra bases on hits. Granderson and Crisp were both good, with Crisp trailing Granderson 2.22 to 1.64 in that aspect of baserunning (see above). By taking all changes in run expectancy related to baserunning for all MLB players for the entire year: every stolen base, caught stealing, advance on an out, advance an extra base on a hit, getting picked off, and getting extra bases for any other reason (eg passed balls). Already told you that. Every result of every play in MLB is quantifiable. Regarding help, does David Ortiz protect baserunners the way he protects batters--if Big Papi is coming down the third base line behind Dustin Pedroia, Pedroia's run hardly counts because no sane catcher will block the plate? Seriously, by your logic you'd throw out batting average because pitchers differ. Or because batters get different pitches...that's really unfair. Big Papi and Dustin Pedroia don't get the same pitches. Big Papi almost never sees a strike down the middle of the plate, because he can usually hit such pitches for home runs. Pedroia sees a mix of pitches across and around the whole plate. We still compare their batting stats. In MLB, situations always vary, but over hundreds of chances opportunities for players often--usually--balance. That's why we accept stats. Even with that red herring you raise of throwing arms, over hundreds of chances (a career's worth, not a season's worth) assist count tends to show who's best. But there's even better work being done at the play-by-play level--just as we can track baserunning by runner, we can track it by which outfielder is holding the ball on a given play. With that information at hand, we can see on which outfielders the runners are taking extra bases and how much those extra bases are worth, not just counting when they get caught. You'd asked for the leaders--I'd expect the leaders to be at least as consistent as, say, batting average leaders for the AL: 2007 Ordonez-DET .363 Suzuki-SEA .351 Polanco-DET .341 Posada-NYY .338 Ortiz-BOS .332 2006 Mauer-MIN .347 Jeter-NYY .344 Cano-NYY .342 Tejada-BAL .330 Guerrero-LAA .329 Sometimes, despite relatively constant skill and hundreds of opportunities, leaders change.

Distinguishing itself from your previous disagreement positively in terms of etiquette. It's not a formula; it's a play-by-play analysis of every baserunning play over 162 games for every team. I've shown you the link for the 2007 leaders. You can purchase the full analysis from BP in the 2008 BP Prospectus; you can even work with Dan Fox and he might share with you, privately, his work for 2000-2006. I don't think that the analysis exists before 2000.

Gom, we ALL get the idea. Carry on.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7174 :dunno: I never liked Joe Sheehan much.

2008 PECOTA had him as a mediocre but MLB-caliber starting pitcher, with a 44% chance that he'd turn out to be better than that and a 24% chance that he'd be a whole lot better. An extra 24% chance that we've just signed the old Bartolo Colon to help if needed without encumbering our 40-man roster is almost too good to be true. Great, great move by the FO.

What Boston players have overperformed under Terry Francona? 1) Jonathan Papelbon. Yeah. 2) Mark Bellhorn. He had one of his only two good years under Tito, even though he reverted to form in 2005. 3) David Ortiz. Actually, he established his ability under Grady Little--his last five months of 2003 were exactly what we've come to expect. He didn't, however, decline under Tito. Ummmmmm...I think that's it. :dunno: One might mention Lowell and Beckett, but their COMBINED two years with Boston fit well into their careers in either case, with 2007 being better than 2006. Remember how much Beckett struggled in 2006. OK, credit to Terry Francona for those success stories. *** What players have seriously disappointed working under Terry Francona in Boston? A partial list: 1) Nomar Garciaparra 2) Pedro Martinez 3) Derek Lowe 4) BH Kim 5) Edgar Renteria 6) Matt Clement 7) Keith Foulke (after just one good season) 8) Craig Hansen 9) Cla Meredith 10) Coco Crisp 11) Wily Mo Pena 12) Javy Lopez 13) Willie Harris 14) JT Snow 15) Carlos Pena 16) Jason Johnson 17) Lenny DiNardo 18) Julio Lugo 19) JD Drew 20) Daisuke Matsuzaka 21) Eric Gagne Try to excuse these, and you might get a few that seem reasonable, but it's a 21-3 count...and I haven't counted every failure (Mike Remlinger says "Hi.") *** What could Tito have done better? 1) Pull his starting pitchers before they lose their games--that's why he was so terrible with Pedro, but also why lesser starters have struggled with Tito (Jason Johnson, DiNardo, Clement and Matsuzaka all fall into this category). 2) Use his relief pitchers with more care to prevent destroying their arms (Foulke) or their confidence (Gagne, Meredith). 3) Allow his less-experienced players a chance to grow with regular playing time. (Wily Mo Pena, Carlos Pena; also Pedroia's 2006, Kelly Shoppach, and Roberto Petagine). 4) Rest his veterans when they were hurt (Renteria, JD Drew; frankly, he's played Manny hurt far too much). 5) Pay less attention to career pitcher vs. batter records in drawing up lineup cards and more attention to current slumps and to overall career trends. I applaud Terry Francona for his clubhouse and media relations, excepting his allowing the Jay Payton and, frankly, Manny Ramirez issues to get out of hand. I believe that his on-the-field work has been terrible, excepting perhaps the playoffs. 1) Small sample size; 2) Gotta remember that he's only faced one team with a payroll higher than Boston's in seven postseason series. The Phillies improved by 21 games the season after they fired Terry Francona.

Let's look at the new Red Sox last year, and see who did better than expected after thriving under Terry Francona's leadership: Dustin Pedroia: Roughly met his PECOTA--a PECOTA significantly lowered because of his 2006 cup of coffee under Terry Francona Daisuke Matsuzaka: Disappointed Julio Lugo: Sucked JD Drew: Sucked Of four new starters, one met expectations, one disappointed, and two sucked. When you have three guys whose salaries and acquisition costs are over $30 million per year as the three bad ones, that doesn't speak well of management. Wanna include new bench players and relief pitchers? Hideki Okajima: Excelled Jacoby Ellsbury: Excelled Clay Buchholz: Excelled Bobby Kielty: Disappointed (60 OPS+) Joel Pineiro: Sucked JC Romero: Sucked Brendan Donnelly: Sucked (pitched to injury; missed most of season) Eric Gagne: Ummmmm...Sucked Even counting Okajima and the two kids whose MLB cups of coffee were 100%-Kona-good, and stopping before getting to Kevin Cash's .111 batting average, Tito still didn't meet expectations managing his new bench players. *** Pragmatically, the FO needs to reward a World Series victory, and I expect that Tito will continue to improve as a manager over the next three years--he's not yet an old manager. But you asked what would cause me to offer Tito the benefit of the doubt, and I respond that I'd like to see a year where his new players significantly exceed expectations as a group.

Great post. Chris Jaffe considered Terry Francona one of the five worst managers of the 2000s and one of the 20 worst of the 20th Century in some analysis he did at BBTF a couple of years back. Much of the reason for that was his terrible 2000 season with the Phillies, but part of it was his lackluster 2004 (the Red Sox struggled far more than they should have given their talent), his knack for destroying pitchers, especially closers, and the tendency of players to do worse when getting Francona as a manager and to do better when leaving Francona. I'd add in his habit of using young players poorly--he almost ruined Pedroia in 2006, and he may have ruined Shoppach, Hansen and Meredith for the Red Sox. I personally blame Tito for mishandling Roberto Petagine and Wily Mo Pena, too. Still, he won...we had heart failure in the ALCS both years, but he won. Francona's finest moment, though, at least for me, was when Pedro Martinez left the ballpark before the game ended at the beginning of the 2004 season. When the media asked about it, Terry Francona said, more or less, "Sheesh...you know, I wasn't clear about that team rule. I'll talk to Pedro and I know that he won't do it again." The incident was quelled AND the standard was reinforced--that was a good moment. Terry Francona is much better with John Farrell as his pitching coach. Let's see how they do as a team in 2008.

Barry Bonds is a Type A Free Agent. Beyond all the other liabilities and questions, he costs the signing team a valuable draft pick.

VI, two great first posts. Welcome to TalkSox! You can make a case that defense is an undercompensated skill (that salary tracks more closely hitting than defense). If the new Coco Crisp is the 2007 Coco Crisp, he might do less well than he deserves. PECOTA expects that +27 fielding runs to drop back to +10, but it expects his hitting to rebound to above-average for a CF. If PECOTA's right, Coco will follow up his good arb-years contract with a moderately good two-to-four-year deal after he hits free agency. Let's see how 2008 goes before we cue any old BBC themes.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6845 Yes. :dunno: Already linked. Your perspective was forecast when I wrote, "While I recognize that you will not see this, most rational readers will." See, it's funny how opinions vary. I would've first thought that the biggest difference might be that you're a Myers-Briggs Type Indicator ESFJ and that I'm not. Isn't it remarkable how perspectives can differ?

You've apparently included people who aren't exclusively center fielders. You probably included Nick Swisher, who played fewer than half of his innings on defense in CF, and you probably included both Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera as qualifying center fielders from the same team. That system has a two-step process: 1) Did the player have enough PA to qualify for post-season awards? 2) Where did he play a plurality (not even a majority) of his innings? Center field gets populated by corner outfielders moved to the middle part-time to cover injuries and such the way you may have done it. ESPN would give a potentially better list, composed only of players who were in CF at least two-thirds of their team's games. They list just ten CF as qualifying in the AL by that fairly liberal standard. But wait...what about the innings in CF not played by those ten center fielders? See, that's the rub: there were a whole slug of innings not included. What is the actual SLG of all AL players batting while playing CF? Answer: .414 You want to throw the NL into the mix, but players' offense jumps significantly--about ten percent--when going AL to NL. The AL CF had lower SLG in the AL but would've been better than NL CF in the NL--we'll stick with AL stats. Back to Coco Crisp. Coco slugged .382, 32 points below the AL mean. That's 19 bases over his entire season...2 HR, 2 triples, 2 doubles, and a single...not that far off average. Furthermore, Coco Crisp was the best baserunner in the AL last year, worth 8.60 runs (not bases, full runs) more than the average player because of his ability to steal bases without getting caught, to take extra bases on hits, and to advance on outs and such. Your quote was, Gom, "Anyone who slugs .382 in CF is a poor offensive player." There was no consideration for any other aspect of offense: SLG of .382 was sufficient. I'd disagree: if you actually look at who plays the CF position, how they actually hit, and the totality of the offensive package, a CF may slug .382 and still be a roughly average offensive player. A roughly average offensive player who's 27 runs above-average on defense (per BP) is a very fine CF. While I recognize that you will not see this, most rational readers will. *** Enjoy rooting for the Yankees again this year, Gom.

I know what the mean SLG for AL CF in 2007 was. Do you?

Oddly, some students of baseball regard defense as important. :dunno: .272 - 2007 AL CF batting .268 - 2007 Coco Crisp batting average Coco's BA isn't a statistically significant difference from the mean. We'll see. I made a point to protect your original words in my post--let's see how they look in a couple of years.

Lugo is a very good offensive shortstop if you look at stolen bases. He was the best in the AL in 2007, in fact, over twice as good as Derek Jeter. Evaluating fielders by fielding percentage is roughly as rational as evaluating hitters by their stolen bases. Yeah, errors matter some; yeah, sometimes stolen bases help. Either stat tells so little of the total story as to be useless in isolation. Given that Derek Jeter does "suck" on many more advanced fielding metrics, let's not try to excuse him for missing several dozens of ground balls completely each year because he made roughly one dozen fewer errors than the errors leader at shortstop for the American League.

...except that he was fifth among all MLB catchers in VORP, a pretty important metric. *** Gom, at least you undervalue Melky Cabrera the same way that you undervalue Coco, but I'll disagree with you on both counts. Coco is an average-hitting but excellent defensive CF. Melky is...better than you credit him to be.

Except that I've linked to where the term is used in professional discussions of workplace safety and repetitive-stress injury, and I've also linked to where it was used by Will Carroll describing an aged pitcher. Actually, that's not what I posted--I said that, "I think that what you'd really like would be for me to stop commenting regarding aspects of your posts with which I might not agree." What you would like and what I intend to do may differ.