Jayhawk Bill

No issue with those perspectives. Except that you probably should. Set aside that Crede is hot: use career stats, and give Ramirez credit for being roughly as good a batter as Crede, and it still looks bad. With one out, filling first base was critical, because the runner was meaningless except for creating a double play situation. The potential double play diminished the chance that Chamberlain would have to retire two more batters. Pitching to Crede guaranteed that at least two hitters would have to be retired, barring baserunner error. I'm not even addressing the outcome; I'm addressing probabilities. Girardi screwed up. Furthermore, if you want a manager who "takes chances," you should be pissed that Torre or Mattingly aren't managing, saying, "Well, gee, I had faith in Joba to get him out, and I'm gonna have faith next time, cuz Joba's a good guy." Joe Girardi is accurate, intelligent, demanding and ruthless. He scores negative "nice guy points," but he wins because he makes the right calls. This time he didn't. Pitching to Crede was a bad call. It's indefensible from a logical perspective. Girardi was wrong. I respect Girardi as a rule, even if I hate the Yankees, but I can't support his decision here.

Let's look at just the past three seasons, WARP, source PECOTA cards: [table]Year | Posada | Youkilis 2005 | 5.2 | 3.2* 2006 | 7.5 | 5.2 2007 | 8.4 | 6.7 [/table] * Including MLE value of AAA stats Posada is 36, and I bet that he'll decline faster, but he was WAY more valuable the past three years running. PECOTA shows Posada and Youk at equivalent value in 2009, with Youkilis better thereafter and Posada better in 2008. Right now 2008 looks like a toss-up, but Youkilis is hot and Posada's been playing hurt, too, so things may change by July or August. Good question, especially given Posada's rocky start. Thanks!

Trivia factoids regarding Javier Lopez: 1) His career first-half ERA is 6.67, but his career second-half ERA is 1.99, over a sample of 118 IP and 63 IP, respectively. 2) His career ERA in Fenway Park is 3.15 in 40 IP.

26 to 6, this is exactly what I remember the option rules as reading. In Mark Prior's case, because he hadn't seen MiLB time in three seasons after reaching the 40-man, excepting rehab assignments, he was still eligible for assignment via options. I think that the same applies for Ray King. Check it out: if he hit the 40-man in 1999, he'd've burned one option year in 1999, one in 2000, and he'd have one left. He could turn down MiLB assignment due to MLB tenure, but the club wouldn't have to expose him to waivers: if King goes along, the Nats protect him. I think that's what's going on, reading the stories. King is deciding whether or not to accept assignment, but the Nats aren't faced with putting him through waivers.

Let's look at a few metrics. Others have posted relievers' ERAs, but ERAs are notorious for misrepresenting relief pitchers. Let's try a couple of other things. First, traditional stats. Bullpens are supposed to save games. How does Boston, as a team, rank regarding saves? The team has nine, tied for third in MLB. That's no problem. But that's Paps. Let's check holds. Now, Boston is tied for 19th in MLB with nine. That sounds bad--but AL teams get fewer holds because of the DH rule. Boston is in a three-way tie for 7th place among AL teams, right at the middle of the league. WXRL is a measure of how many wins a pitcher, or the bullpen, is worth over a AAA pitcher or pitchers. Boston's bullpen as a group is at 1.054 wins, 15th in MLB. Again, using a more-sophisticated metric reflecting the complete bullpen, Boston is average. Here's what I'm seeing: Papelbon is doing a great job. Combining him with everybody else, or choosing a metric avoiding his contributions, brings the team to average or less. For a contending team, that's probably inadequate. Why isn't the bullpen thriving? 1) Mike Timlin. His ERA is astronomical, but one can make excuses for an extraordinary BABIP allowed and a high HR/FB ratio. The trouble is, even accounting for those factors he's pitched as if he were a 5.68 ERA relief pitcher (xFIP). One can say "small sample size," but Timlin's 2005-2007 stats were "lucky:" his ERA has been less than his xFIP by a bit more than a run over that whole period. Frankly, Timlin was nearing the range of a AAA pitcher in 2006-2007; another slight decline with age and injury in 2008 has left him below that level. Sadly, Mike Timlin needs to leave. Perhaps he could be enticed into a coaching job at the same salary of his MLB contract through 2008, and he could retire...but he's got to go. 2) Manny Delcarmen. Look, I don't think that MDC is doing any worse than he did in 2007, but he's getting average vice superlative support from his fielders and he's had bad luck with fly balls leaving the park. Furthermore, his mistakes have been ill-timed: his failure to hold leads has been as costly as the bullpen work of Timlin and Tavarez combined. I see this as a case of bad luck and unrealistic expectations for Delcarmen, not a reason to trade or release him. Still, his work has hurt the team. 3) Kyle Snyder. I hope that Snyder recovers in AAA Pawtucket. He's right where he needs to be. Besides that, Boston has a good set-up/closer duo, two capable seventh-inning guys (Aardsma and Lopez), and a veteran swing man in Julian Tavarez. Ditching Timlin for something better--my vote for "something better" being the now-well-rested Craig Hansen--along with a return to career norms for MDC--should bring the bullpen back to playoff-caliber, albeit not domination.

Exactly. Frank Thomas had that scrawled on his locker his rookie year to help keep himself grounded. IMO, his career has reflected those four words very well. Were I the Angels, I'd be concerned. As a Red Sox fan, I'm happy to see Thomas vacating the AL East.

No, I was considering you astute. Go figure. :dunno:

Thanks! Again, DBTH.

Link? If true, great to hear: he'll help the very young Oakland team with his personal variety of fierce professionalism, not to mention his ability to hit a little bit. The salary would almost certainly be MLB minimum--he gets the rest from Toronto. DBTH. :thumbsup:

Damn. Red Sox lose. Edit: Boston: 15 wins New York: 12 wins :harhar:

Pardon my joining the Game Thread late. I found the later innings frustrating, but Masterson rocks nevertheless.

"Bad" is such a strong word... Great match on rate stats! Not coincidentally, John Kruk is the top Baseball Reference comparable for Youk through age 28, too. The challenge is that the pattern of reaching those rate stats differed for the two players. Youkilis was a bench player on the Pawtucket shuttle at ages 25 and 26, achieving most of his value (about 77%) in his two full-time years at ages 27 and 28. Kruk was on an MLB roster full-time for all four years (just 28 AAA at bats), but he never got over 447 MLB at bats a season those years because he was platooned--he didn't hit LHP well. As a full-time player Youk was worth 6.2 and 7.5 wins per year his two full-time years; Kruk was worth 3.1 to 6.4 wins his four full-time years, with only one year over 4.8 wins (WARP3). Also, Kruk had a cumulative -5 FRAA through age 28; Youkilis had a cumulative +26 FRAA. Youkilis was a better player than Kruk. Fain had three full-time seasons up through age 28. His value was 5.4 to 6.7 wins per year. His cumulative FRAA was +9. Fain didn't field or slug quite as well as Youks; his OBP was better, though, and he'd accumulated 344 walks through age 28 while Youks had only 215. Fain's value is closer to that of Kevin Youkilis, season by season, and they are similar in skill sets. Kruk's rate stats closely matched Youkilis's, but Kruk couldn't field and he sat down versus left-handed pitchers. I'll stick with Fain as a GOOD comparable. Kruk is, IMO, a good but a lesser comparable. "Good but lesser" being, well, not so strong words...

FWIW, if it's the strain of flu that I had in February, it's a killer. I ran a fever approaching 104 for four days, I ran a fever over 101 for over a week, and I felt like crap for 3-4 weeks after the fever broke. That was with Tamiflu and antibiotics...

I was vague. I posted, deleting words for clarity, "In...order...future potential...aside, 45 names." It wasn't based upon future potential--it was based upon current season likely production relative to one's peers at his position. You can certainly challenge a few of them: yes, I'd take Evan Longoria over Kevin Youkilis right now, but others would consider that a huge leap of faith both in Longoria and in MLE's. Khalil Greene benefits greatly from park effects and from playing shortstop in my estimations. Troy Tulowitzki is tanking this year--I'm counting on that being a fluke. (The same for Big Papi!) Ryan Braun can't field, but he can hit so well that I still rank him over Youkilis. But there are a lot of those 45 players that I wouldn't have to defend, either. Still, you know, I spent a little bit of time on this...a guy in the top 45 players in all of MLB is a guy on the cusp of making his All Star Team were the selection system fair. That's a very good player. I see Kevin Youkilis as the modern-day Ferris Fain. For those too young to remember Fain, here's his BR page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fainfe01.shtml Fain hit .290/.424/.396 over his nine-year career, making five All Star teams and placing as high as 6th in MVP voting twice. His peak came late, from ages 29 to 31. Despite his making the All Star team at ages 32 and 33, he declined swiftly and he was out of MLB at age 35. That wouldn't happen today: he had a .455 OBP in limited playing time at age 34, and his MiLB batting line of .252/.412/.293 at age 35 suggests that he had one more good year, and an AL team would've picked him up as a DH for certain today despite those stats. Still, that .293 SLG in MiLB suggests that, even today, he would've retired after age 35, just one year later than he actually did. That's what I see for Kevin Youkilis: near All Star performance through his early thirties, followed by a puzzlingly swift decline in his mid-30's.

Good to see you back, Gom. *** BTW, welcome, OFF. Glad to have another sharp-witted poster in the community.

Lester doesn't suck. Surprisingly, thus far Hansen doesn't suck, either. Edit: JD Drew, however, has missed potential plays at the wall two nights running.

In 2008: ERA: 1.93 BAA: .188 GO/AO: 1.76 And, FWIW: Birthplace: Boston, MA

You might consider it, but it would've been a bad trade. We're in the odd situation where 26 to 6 and I are in agreement. Rather than my "going stats" on you, I'd ask that we share respect for our differing opinions, lest I be forced to support a Yankees fan any further.

Maybe on a few of them...in descending order, salary considerations, future potential, and contract length aside, 45 names: Albert Pujols David Wright Alex Rodriguez Hanley Ramirez Miguel Cabrera David Ortiz Ryan Zimmerman Chipper Jones Chase Utley Carlos Beltran Jose Reyes Jimmy Rollins Joe Mauer Ryan Braun Grady Sizemore Mark Teixeira Prince Fielder Evan Longoria Curtis Granderson Aramis Ramirez Carlos Guillen Lance Berkman Brian Roberts Carlos Pena Troy Tulowitzki Travis Hafner Jorge Posada Russell Martin Ryan Howard Hunter Pence Matt Holliday Placido Polanco Victor Martinez Derek Jeter Vladimir Guerrero Dustin Pedroia Nick Swisher Jim Thome B.J. Upton Michael Young Manny Ramirez Brian McCann Ichiro Suzuki Jacoby Ellsbury Khalil Greene

I don't believe that minor-league managers are steroid-tested...:dunno: Hmm. Probably a coincidence that he seems much stronger this spring.