Jayhawk Bill

"Going Down The Road Feeling Bad?" OK... From the Orwell reference I believe that you're suggesting that a team so similar to last year's should have similar offense, and from the "Franklin's Tower" quote I gather a caution against hubris. Other lyrics from "Franklin's Tower" by the Dead: Could be. :dunno: Pardon my search for reasons for optimism as the snow and ice piles up in my driveway and my hot stove (I've really got one) strains to warm my home. I look at this and see cause for hope; certainly, though, we've all lived through past heartbreak of expectations dashed as Red Sox fans. If I've misinterpreted your allusions, well, sorry. At least I tried.

I hope that you're right! As an aside, serving as backup LF/CF/DH (again, with the assumption that Manny would really DH and that Ellsbury would play LF) gave Ellsbury "full time" status in this evaluation. If Crisp were the backup, I'm not sure that the reverse would be true: Moss would fill both corner spots, I'd expect.

The CHONE projections are out. For those of you who don't know, the CHONE projections are one of the complete sets that one can acquire to gauge projections. They're free; they're roughly as good as the Marcels, the ZiPS, or the Bill James projections, and they're almost as good as PECOTA. They tend to underestimate leaders' years because they regress to the mean to account for injuries, but every serious projection system does that. You can find the CHONE projections here: http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html I took the CHONE projections to see what the Boston lineup this year might look like. I made these assumptions: 1) Terry Francona will start the season using this batting order: 1) Pedroia 2) Youkilis 3) Ortiz 4) Ramirez 5) Drew 6) Lowell 7) Varitek 8) Crisp 9) Lugo 2) When any of these players aren't playing, their replacements will hit in their batting order spot; 3) The Depth Chart at http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bos reflects the actual way that players will be used; 4) The backup at RF is Brandon Moss, the backup at 1B is Chris Carter, the first backup at DH is Jacoby Ellsbury (actually playing LF while Manny DHes) and the second backup at DH is Chris Carter, the second backup at SS/2B is Jed Lowrie, and the second backup at 3B is Chris Carter (actually playing 1B while Youk plays 3B ); 5) The team gets 4,374 outs (27 outs x 162 games), and each batting order position gets 20 more outs than the one behind it; 6) Pitchers don't hit. Using these assumptions for a moment (and we'll come back to them), here are the 2008 Red Sox: [table]Last | Batting Average | OPS | HR | RBI | Runs Varitek | 0.249 | 0.770 | 16 | 57 | 64 Youkilis | 0.272 | 0.816 | 15 | 63 | 97 Pedroia | 0.299 | 0.805 | 8 | 58 | 87 Lowell | 0.286 | 0.801 | 18 | 81 | 78 Lugo | 0.267 | 0.720 | 8 | 54 | 65 Ramirez | 0.284 | 0.909 | 27 | 88 | 87 Crisp | 0.278 | 0.759 | 10 | 64 | 60 Drew | 0.273 | 0.837 | 15 | 75 | 76 Ortiz | 0.301 | 1.012 | 39 | 115 | 116 Mirabelli | 0.212 | 0.663 | 7 | 19 | 21 Carter | 0.269 | 0.760 | 11 | 53 | 50 Cora | 0.258 | 0.697 | 4 | 31 | 32 Ellsbury | 0.299 | 0.771 | 6 | 57 | 87 Moss | 0.260 | 0.736 | 4 | 26 | 25 Lowrie | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1 | 9 | 9[/table] I don't know about you, but I don't see anything too outrageous there. Maybe 10 home runs for Coco Crisp is a little high, even assuming a starting role. That's really pretty trivial on this scale, though. Here's the deal: if you add up those last two columns, you get 1043 RBI and a whopping 1180 runs scored. That averages to 1111 runs scored by the team. Have we overestimated? I can find one big thing missing in the assumptions: GIDP. Outs are used not only by batters but also by baserunners, usually in GIDPs. That accounts for another 150-200 outs, enough to drop these figures for the team by 5%, with the bench players losing the playing time. But that's still a team that scores over 1,000 runs. Here's a list of reasons for optimism regarding the 2008 Boston Red Sox at the plate: 1) JD Drew and Julio Lugo are very likely to exceed their 2007 performances. For technical reasons, so is Doug Mirabelli. 2) Jacoby Ellsbury will get more playing time. 3) Manny is in his contract year. 4) Papi has been playing hurt for the past year and a half--if he's better, watch out. 5) Chris Carter can flat-out hit. Here are reasons for pessimism: 1) Mike Lowell won't repeat his extraordinary 2007. That 2007 team scored 867 runs. Eric Hinske, Kevin Cash and Wily Mo Pena combined to hit barely over .200 in almost 400 at bats, burning a whole lot of outs. The only player listed here who hits around .200 is Doug Mirabelli, and he still hits roughly 100 points higher than Kevin Cash. Yes, injuries happen, but serious unforeseen injuries result in playing time for Ellsbury, Moss, Carter, Lowrie, and Kottaras, all of whom can reach base. *** I suspect that we're underestimating the offensive potential of the 2008 Boston Red Sox. Even if these numbers are 10% too high instead of 5% too high, this could still be a 1,000-run team.

Joe Sheehan of BP, yesterday, writing on the biggest candidates for a breakout in 2008 in MLB. His words on Melky Cabrera: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7053 I maintain that it's the Hughes-Cabrera combo, not just Hughes...Hughes has Cy Young potential, but Melky Cabrera is going to be an All Star-caliber outfielder "very, very soon."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7044 That's the kind of player a smart GM trades, especially if he can get both a starting SS and a starting CF in the deal. Greene has a career split of .274/.318/.452 in road games at AL ballparks--that's really good for a shortstop. For contrast, Lugo hit .190/.241/.306 on the road last year, but his career line of .200/.333/.320 in PETCO is probably more valuable than Greene's because of the big difference in OBP. (His career interleague mark of .257/.342/.376 is, of course, much better than his PETCO stats.)

The Brewers will have trouble competing with, in particular, the Cubs. The Cubs were and are better, and they have far more money to use in July if the need or opportunity presents itself. St Louis and Houston are always dangerous, despite their recent weak records, and the Reds aren't much worse than the Brewers. It's tough to be a contender when you're fifth in runs scored and ninth in runs allowed in a good year. The Brewers are doing a good job with limited financial resources--I'm just not sure that contending against Chicago, Houston and St Louis is viable.

Let's check contracts. Glaus: 2008 $12.75 million 2009: $11.25 million player option No-trade clause Rolen: 2008: $12 million 2009: $12 million 2010: $12 million No-trade clause Both players are worth about 4 WARP1 (Glaus 4.0; Rolen 4.1). The slick-fielding Rolen is projected to age a little better than the slugger Glaus, although both are listed at a hefty 240 pounds. Glaus is 16 months younger. Rolen has had, by far, the better peak years (1998 and 2004). Both have had seesaw careers with time lost to injuries. Glaus has more association with PED rumors. Rolen doesn't get along with his clubhouse. My take: watch for Glaus to tear up NL Central pitching in his contract year. Watch for Rolen to struggle a bit against AL East pitching in 2008*, while providing good glove work, AS LONG AS the media and the fans don't come down too hard on him for his hitting. The big difference, though, is that it's one year of Glaus for three years of Rolen. St Louis is betting that Rolen is washed up soon. We'll see. * Note that Rolen's career split vs. AL teams is .290/.381/.513, so a decline facing the AL is far from an automatic. I'll still predict it. Caveat emptor.

To the contrary, I think that Kevin Cash is well-situated to being somewhere in the Red Sox system, sitting on the pine. FWIW, in over 40 years of watching baseball the only catchers I remember looking better on defense than Cash were Pudge Rodriguez and Tony Pena, when both were young. I think that holding onto Kevin Cash and keeping him acquainted with the knuckleball makes sense, as long as he can reliably support Wakefield if called upon to do so. As an aside, since his right shoulder trouble in 2005, in 2006/2007 Cash has hit .180 in AAA and .111 in MLB. Given those MiLB stats, I really don't think that Cash is a .111 hitter at the MLB level: I think that he's a .160 hitter at the MLB level.

Hmmm...I don't have 2007 stats, but here are 2000-2006 baserunning stats for each of the players you cite, courtesy Dan Fox: [table]Player | Net Runs Mirabelli | -5.03 Ortiz | -16.95 Ramirez | -18.56 Youkilis | -1.58[/table] You can only cost your team runs on the basepaths when you're actually on the basepaths, so it looks as if Dougie is indeed worse than Papi and Papi is worse than Manny, but Youk is roughly an MLB-average baserunner. FWIW, the worst baserunner on the 2007 Red Sox was Mike Lowell at -6.34 runs, largely because he got caught a few times trying to advance on fly balls. The best was Coco Crisp at +8.60 runs, second-best in MLB.

For the record, Doug Mirabelli only reached first base 26 times last year. If Ellsbury were right behind him, about ten of those times Ellsbury would reach leaving Mirabelli at second. How often would you expect a hit that would allow Ellsbury to score from first that wouldn't allow Mirabelli to score from second? :dunno: Mirabelli is slow. So is Papi. It's not a big deal.

I never said that Andy Pettitte was smart. Pettitte might always refuse to answer specific questions during his testimony, or he might assume (probably correctly) that he won't get prosecuted for his past actions, regardless.

From the BR Bullpen:

Possibly because he'd be an accessory to criminal action if he'd injected Pettitte with unprescribed hGH as Pettitte has admitted, or if he'd injected Clemens with either unprescribed steroids or unprescribed B12, as he and Clemens have respectively stated. However one looks at it, he'd be foolish to testify unless given immunity.

There goes a forty-man roster spot. The projections for Doug Mirabelli in 2008 actually aren't that bad. First, the Marcels: .220/.300/.380, 9 HR, 34 RBI Marcels are strictly done by formula, so there's nothing subjective here. Now, Bill James: .208/.291/.383, 5 HR, 16 RBI Bill James sees Mirabelli getting 120 AB, not the 255 projected by the Marcels, and we all know that he's about right. Mirabelli isn't getting extra games as a DH, and he'll catch just one of five pitchers, one game each doubleheader, and the day games after night games. Furthermore, Mirabelli is a good candidate for a DL trip sometime this season. Still, that Bill James batting line differs little from the Marcels batting line excepting playing time, and it would be his best batting line in three years if he earned it. I'd agree that Mirabelli is likely to do a little better: even understanding how slow he is, his BABIP should be higher than the two-year .253 he's posted given how many line drives he hits, and his HR/FB% should be well above-average given his power, not the near-average 11.7% it's been for two seasons. I'll still miss that roster spot, though.

Stop making spurious allegations of illegal activity. Trust me, I don't evaluate players by any media hype. Those who've read my posts know that I evaluate by stats and comparables. Players as good as Cabrera and Hughes at such young ages don't come along often. Santana wasn't that good that young. First, I regard his upside as much higher; second, a true average MLB CF in his pre-free agency years is a very valuable player. Santana may not be the Cy Young winner that everybody thinks he CAN be. Both Hughes and Santana are pitchers, and pitchers get arm trouble. Santana had an off year, and he lost a little velocity. An augury? I dunno. :dunno: Great! We both want to see the deal happen! Edit: I'd commented yesterday that it looked as if the Yankees were backing off. From today's Daily News: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/01/10/2008-01-10_yankees_may_give_up_on_johan_santana-2.html That appears to be what I'd posted yesterday, give or take.

BA always overestimates tools and underestimates skills and injury risks. Few future stars are missed by BA, but many BA top picks wash out. Ellsbury is likely to have a better total MLB career value than Buchholz. Buchholz has a higher ceiling, along with a higher injury risk. BA, of course, puts Buchholz first.

I think that Rice's strong showing locked his eventual inclusion in the HOF via some Veterans' Committee process, but I agree that it looks as if he won't be voted in by the BBWAA.

The rule regards "tampering." One can't discuss contracts with a player under contract to another team, nor can one make pronouncements regarding what salary one would pay a player destined for free agency lest it influence the player's decision whether or not to accept arbitration. Tampering happens...Theo has probably been guilty of it a time or two. Usually such things are leaked out indirectly to allow plausible deniability. As an germane example, we all "know" that Theo and the FO would give Santana 7/140 if he came to Boston. I can't find a quote to that effect, though, as I can find a quote of Hank Steinbrenner's. That might put the Yankees at risk of action for tampering. Per AOL, Minnesota is leaning toward accepting the Yankees' offer: http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/01/07/twins-lower-demands-for-johan-santana/ As I've posted previously, I regard just the combination of Hughes and Cabrera as more valuable than Johan Santana, all aspects considered. The rumored inclusion of Igawa, who has negative trade value, suggests that Hank Steinbrenner has realized that he overbid and that the Twins are about to make him live up to his offer, and that the Yankees can't wiggle any further than using their absolute worst trade-eligible player as the fourth name without breaking their word (and possibly some legally-binding deal) with the Twins' FO. The Yankees can still try to poison the deal by getting Santana to veto it, though. I think that's what they're doing.

Maybe: no problem with his induction, but the standards for relief pitchers are, as yet, ill-defined. The defining stat for relief pitchers' excellence is saves. Career saves leaders: [table]Rank | Player (age if active) | Saves 1 | Trevor Hoffman(39) | 524 2 | Lee Smith | 478 3 | Mariano Rivera(37) | 443 4 | John Franco | 424 5 | Dennis Eckersley | 390 6 | Jeff Reardon | 367 7 | Billy Wagner(35) | 358 8 | Randy Myers | 347 9 | Rollie Fingers | 341 10 | John Wetteland | 330 11 | Roberto Hernandez(42) | 326 12 | Troy Percival(37) | 324 13 | Jose Mesa(41) | 321 14 | Rick Aguilera | 318 15 | Robb Nen | 314 16 | Tom Henke | 311 17 | Rich Gossage | 310 18 | Jeff Montgomery | 304 19 | Doug Jones | 303 20 | Todd Jones(39) | 301 21 | Bruce Sutter | 300 22 | Armando Benitez(34) | 289 23 | Rod Beck | 286 24 | Jason Isringhausen(34) | 281 25 | Bob Wickman(38) | 267 26 | Todd Worrell | 256 27 | Dave Righetti | 252 28 | Dan Quisenberry | 244 29 | Sparky Lyle | 238 30 | Ugueth Urbina | 237[/table] Bunches of those guys ahead of Gossage aren't making the HOF. What about looking at league leadership? Gossage led his league three times. Quisenberry led his league five times, and he's an afterthought. How's this: if Gossage is in, what about Lee Smith? Smith had more career saves, more years leading his league (4, plus 4 second-place finishes, versus three firsts and two seconds for Gossage), and their ERAs were almost identical despite Smith's playing in a hitter's era. Gossage wasn't the best eligible relief pitcher not yet inducted. Rice is the best currently eligible outfielder not yet inducted. Absolutely true, and an excellent point.

Cheez, YAZMAN, just 'cause that's why you couldn't find the TYIB Awards doesn't mean that everybody has the same problem. For a good archive, try this: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/awards/this_year_in_baseball_awards.shtml

Jim Rice earned 3.15 MVP Award Shares. Only one player with more who's eligible for the HOF isn't yet inducted: Dave Parker, the best player in the NL at the time Rice was the best in the AL. Parker has 3.19 career award shares. Many of the great players who started a decade later than Rice probably extended their careers with PEDs, diminishing the respect for the great players of half a generation before them. Here are the only players who were rookies in the 1970's to make the HOF: Paul Molitor: 3,319 hits Eddie Murray: 3,255 hits Cal Ripken: 3,184 hits George Brett: 3,154 hits Robin Yount: 3,142 hits Dave Winfield: 3,110 hits Mike Schmidt: 548 HR, 3 MVP, 8 GG Carlton Fisk: 2226 games caught, 376 HR, 11-time All Star Gary Carter: 324 HR, 11-time All Star Ozzie Smith: 13 GG To make the HOF from the 1980's, one either had to be in the 3,000 hit club, the 500 home run club (and Schmidt was far better than just a slugger), or one of the few best at a demanding defensive position in the history of baseball. But even of these elite players, only Schmidt, Murray and Brett earned more MVP Award Shares than Rice. MVP Award Shares [table]Jim Rice | 3.15 Ken Singleton | 1.43 Jack Clark | 1.16 Ron Cey | 0.25 Dave Kingman | 0.26[/table] Your words are confirmed. Kirby Puckett had 2.56 MVP Award Shares. He was almost as well-regarded as Rice at his peak. Three things in Puckett's favor: 1) He was a CF, and he was perceived to be good at it. Rice was a LF, and he was perceived to be bad at it, although Rice's career Range Factor per game just edges out Carl Yastrzemski's, suggesting that he might've been pretty good defensively. 2) Kirby Puckett's vision declined and he immediately retired. Jim Rice's vision declined and he played for three more years as a below-average left fielder. Puckett got sympathy votes; Rice lost his .300 career batting average. 3) Kirby Puckett was a very upbeat and popular guy. Jim Rice was a grumpy fart who could only be loved by Bostonians (and, considering the Bonds era, perhaps San Franciscans). There may be a fourth thing in Puckett's favor: PEDs. Check out his stats: he had 4 home runs his first two years and he suddenly had 31 in his third season. His defense suffered terribly, as one would expect from a center fielder bulked up with steroids. Several of his teammates shared his power surge in 1985-86: Gary Gaetti (20 to 34 HR), Greg Gagne (2 to 12 HR), Kent Hrbek (21 to 29 HR), and Roy Smalley (12 to 20 HR). Nobody had a big drop, and Steve Lombardozzi went from 0 to 8 HR. Heck, Billy Beane had every home run of his MLB career with the 1986 Twins. There certainly may be other explanations, but knowing what we know now one has to wonder about a guy who gains so much power hitting in so little time. But Jim Rice had more MVP Award Shares than Puckett. He was regarded as a better player at his peak, and he had better career milestone counts than Puckett, too.

Over a series of years, Yankee Stadium balances to a neutral park. In 2007, it favored offense by 7%, favoring home runs by 15%...maybe the wind was blowing out.

Why? You're far too young to be developing Alzheimer's.