Jayhawk Bill

He's looking like one of the top ten first basemen in MLB to me. Maybe even as high as number six.

Good-looking as Yankees fans go.

I predict a very long game. Bonderman is one of the few pitchers against whom Cash has done well...I'm a little disappointed that Francona didn't give Tek a chance to heal his bruises.

http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/ I've PMed you with other ways to use the data. Good luck!

Yankees fan overreacts and runs down Red Sox fan with car. Red Sox fan shields other fan from harm and dies in the process of saving a life. His organs are donated, saving other lives. Tragic, yes. But what's bizarre? :dunno:

Are you suggesting that Boston release MDC outright?

Manny Delcarmen's xFIP, by year: [table] Year | xFIP 2005 | 4.59 2006 | 4.04 2007 | 4.07 2008 | 3.95 [/table] That looks like very consistent pitching once the effect of fielders is removed. The trouble, of course, is that xFIP can hide two things that can raise ERA: either a decrease in ground balls (an increase in fly balls is captured, but ground balls are captured only indirectly) or an increase in line drives. Let's check: [table] Year | LD% | GB% 2005 | 16.7 | 62.5 2006 | 25.7 | 44.6 2007 | 17.0 | 44.6 2008 | 12.8 | 59.0 [/table] Looking at the peripherals, MDC should be having his best season. The biggest missing element is home runs: MDC has allowed two fly ball home runs despite allowing only 12 fly balls all season. A contributing factor is that 34.8% of his ground balls in play have been allowed through for hits and that 100% of his line drives in play have become hits, both figures about a third too high. Boston's only given MDC a .632 DER--any pitcher can look bad with that support. The HR/FB rate will return to around 11-12% with time, not 16.7%, and the DER allowed should rise to around .700, maybe better if MDC can keep avoiding line drives. This isn't MDC's fault, IMO. I counsel patience.

I was really eager for the Yankees to execute the Santana trade. I'm sorry that they didn't. Of course, I want the Yankees to lose. IIRC, the rumored demand from Minnesota was Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. My recollection is that I maintained that Ian Kennedy sucked (career potential fourth starter at best), but that Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera were more valuable than Johan Santana. Fast forward to May 5th. Ian Kennedy sucks. Score one. Phil Hughes was pitching with a cracked rib. The rumor I've heard is that he cracked the rib while he wasn't pitching. That actually makes sense, especially given that it's not a first rib. Hughes had a great first start, allowing two runs in six innings vs. Toronto for the win. After that he's had an absurdly bad 11.25 ERA, almost double what you'd expect from an average replacement-level pitcher. Hughes is better than replacement-level: we just don't know how much better yet. If he allowing an 11.25 ERA and a cracked rib shows up, though, one can believe that there's a correlation. No score yet on Hughes. Melky Cabrera is leading the New York Yankees--the team of All Star sluggers--in home runs, and batting over .290, while playing a good defensive center field. It appears that he's found his power, as I'd suggested that he would. Score one more...that's two. Johan Santana...well, he's 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA and an xFIP to match (3.07). He's the 13th-best pitcher in MLB by VORP this morning. That looks really good, but consider these factors: 1) Offense is down in 2008. That 2.91 ERA is an ERA+ of just 138, barely better than his 2006 ERA+ of 130 and much worse than his ERA+ from every year between 2002 and 2006. 2) That doesn't consider his AL-to-NL move. Given the league differences, an ERA+ of 138 in the NL might translate to something in the range of a 125 ERA+ in the AL. That's still very good for a starting pitcher, but it's less good than Santana ever was with the Twins. 3) Santana couldn't hit 92 mph his last time out (I checked Pitch f/x). Remember Buster Olney on ESPN Insider writing that Santana's velocity was off in his last seven starts of 2007? He hasn't regained his 94-96mph fastball. That suggests injury. 4) Santana is signed through the 2013 season at a total of $137.5 million, plus either a $5.5 million buyout or a $25 million contract year in 2014. That's A LOT of money, even for the Yankees. We'll see...too early to score. *** I claim a 2-0 score in my favor so far in assessing the potential trade. Even with Hughes on the DL and Kennedy in AAA, I'm sorry that the Yankees didn't make the deal. :dunno:

First, I personally believe that the Red Sox have "an understanding" with Boras...I think that the JD Drew deal was essentially made after the 2004 season, and that's why his contract was structured as it was with LA. I think that the Matsuzaka deal was founded in the goodwill extant between Boston and Boras as well. Collusion, though? Collusion is such a strong word...

Welcome! Great to have you...I like your avatar, too.

Mr. Crunchy, normally I agree with your wise counsel, but here I take a different perspective. JD Drew sucked last year because of two bad months. Through the worst month, May, he was playing injured. Drew can't play well while injured; I don't know the reason, I just know that he's been notorious for missing time through his career, and that when he tried to play injured last year he was terrible. I want the high-OBP JD Drew we get when he plays healthy. Thus far I've been impressed with Ellsbury and Moss in right field, so even with Moss out for over a month we still have a capable right fielder in Drew's absence. I'd rather see JD Drew honest about his injuries, and Terry Francona cautious about playing him injured, than see a repeat of last May.

WMP did hit .300 with power in 2006. :dunno: WMP was never a good bench player. Tito insisted on using him that way in 2007, and he sucked at it--when he went to the Nats and started regularly, he was great again despite a late-season injury. I don't blame Theo for WMP, I blame Tito for misusing him. Furthermore, I'm a big Chris Carter fan if you're talking hitting (not fielding)...the Arroyo trade is not yet over.

Compared to himself last September, perhaps? :dunno: Kennedy was getting the calls in 2007...too many folks are watching Pitch f/x in 2008 to permit the umpires to support him the way that they did last autumn again.

Absolutely. The Detroit Tigers with Curtis Granderson are a completely different team to the Tigers without Granderson. A split is adequate; three of four is a coup.

....or Theo knows where to turn for advice.

Good game. It was closer than the final score--if one believes in clutch performances, there were a few today. Well done for the Red Sox!

7-3 Boston. Very cool. Good day for Youk.