Jayhawk Bill

I continue to support Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp for Khalil Greene; the Padres might be receptive to that right now. Crisp: .315/.338/.384 Lugo: .286/.351/.345 Greene: .209/.264/.295 The Red Sox have Drew, Manny, Jacoby left in the outfield, plus Moss when he's back in a month or so. If Greene doesn't return to his power-hitting self, there's Lowrie, whose best position is shortstop, and Cora is ready to return. If Greene can't hit, and if 2007 was a pure fluke, at least the Red Sox are rid of Lugo's contract and two players more unpopular than they deserve to be in Boston. If Greene returns to 2007 form, and if both Park Factors and the AL-NL difference are considered, Boston has another Rico Petrocelli in his prime.

First, a comment: I don't think that Kevin Cash is juicing any more than I think that he's made a deal with the devil. That said, the root of humor is truth: steroid use might produce better bat speed, more line drives, and a higher BABIP on ground balls. Alex Sanchez certainly didn't hit home runs, but he was the first MLB player to test positive for PEDs. Steroid use might also produce positive urinalysis tests. I haven't seen any of those on any current 40-man roster member of the Red Sox since serious testing was initiated in 2005, and I suspect that the organization doesn't tolerate current steroid use. YMMV.

Kevin Cash is hitting .361. I'm sitting here at my computer, sifting through page after page of stats and history, looking for some clue, and I can't find much. Small sample size is out the window*; it's got to be something more. Right now these are my top three options: 1) In blatant defiance of MLB drug testing, Kevin Cash spent the offseason juicing. Now blessed with the strength of Barry Bonds, he suddenly discovers that MLB is not so tough after all. He is, however, surprisingly grumpy when the media isn't watching. 2) Down in Florida during Spring Training, Kevin Cash was nearby when Hank Steinbrenner told Satan that there was no way that he was selling his soul the way his Daddy had years back, and that if Brian Cashman's soul wasn't good enough then the devil could just screw off. Overhearing the conversation, Kevin Cash quickly moved in and pointed out that, although he wasn't selling his own soul this off-season, it would still be just an incredible joke to injure BOTH Yankees catchers, let Varitek have his career year, and to bless himself with a .361 batting average. "Just a thought," Cash might've said, "and I might be willing to do business in the 2008-2009 season if it really worked out..." 3) Maybe there's something in the stats. Unable to research the first two concepts adequately, I turned to the stats. Three things struck me: 1) Cash's LD% is 34.6% this year, vs. a career 18.8%. That 34.6% isn't sustainable. If he drops back to 18.8%, it's going to cost him roughly 80 points of batting average. 2) Cash's career BABIP on ground balls is .131, but it's been .273 this season. You know, looking back at Cash in 2007 I remember a whole lot of frustratingly bad dribblers to the middle infield that I don't see this season. That .131 BABIP was almost unbelievably low, but it's possible for a slow-footed, weak batter. A BABIP of .270-odd on ground balls is sustainable for many MLB hitters, even some as slow as Cash. The change here might represent a ability shift due to good coaching, and it might be a permanent shift. 3) Kevin Cash's career batting line is .077/.045/.181 higher when starting instead of coming in as a substitute, despite doing better than his career stats when facing relief pitchers. Cash is getting semi-regular use in MLB for the first time since 2004--it could easily make this big a difference. How good is Kevin Cash? :dunno: I don't know. I know that he's not a .361 hitter in MLB; I know, too, that he's not a .170 hitter any more, either. I'd suggest that, because of that bit about LD%, that .280 is about the top end of what his true talent level is right now. Given that he's hit .361 so far, though, binomial theorem suggests that .230 is probably around the low end of his true talent level. If he were much less of a hitter, he just wouldn't get this lucky. I believe that Cash's true talent level has shifted and he's now, at age 30, somewhere between a .230 and a .280 hitter, probably closer to a .230 hitter. Even if he's now a .230 hitter, that's 60 batting average points better than we had any right to expect from Cash coming into 2008. :thumbsup: * The odds of an established .170 hitter hitting .361 this far into the season are less than one in two hundred. Cash's MLE in AAA 2006-2007 was around .170-.180, and his actual MLB stats were much lower.

This reminds me: I've been looking for a sig quote...

Dustin Pedroia ranged six steps to get that first out. Great play.

Working on a school project with my son with the game on in the background.

Youkilis might be one of the top ten first basemen in MLB. Maybe as good as sixth-best.

Valid criticism. Of course, he's paid good money to spout that crap.

How much does Steve Phillips think that 4.5 months of Adam Dunn is worth? Five years of Matt Cain? An ace plus a prospect from Toronto? The current best starting pitcher in the AL, Cliff Lee, plus change? I'll give him this much: anybody who could pull off these deals would improve Cincinnati. That said, if he were making these suggestions on a message board anonymously, Phillips would be the target of ridicule.

If I ever get a job where the ratio of salary to IQ is as high as Julio Lugo's, I'm keeping the job even if it stresses me out.

Checking last night's Yankees game, Cliff Lee got three calls and lost three calls for a dead-even night. Wang lost three calls and got none. Farnsworth lost one call; Betancourt got one call; Albaladejo and Perez were called correctly. The wrong calls broke 8-3 in favor of the Guardians. That's not statistically significant, but it probably resulted in an extra run in favor of Cleveland. My subjective observation in recent years has been that the late-season Yankees comeback has been associated with more favorable umpiring, in particular in 2005 with Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon. Thanks to Pitch f/x, we can assess whether or not that's the case in 2008. As a part of the baseline, last night the umpires screwed the Yankees out of roughly a run. I'll try to keep track of both Red Sox and Yankees games this year.

Glancing at the Pitch f/x logs for starting pitchers this morning, Gallaraga got a net +5 calls in his favor while Buchholz got a net -5. The result of starting pitchers alone isn't statistically significant, but +10 calls is enough to reverse the result of a one-run game. My favorite: strike one to Mike Lowell in the second inning missed the strike zone by a foot. Jim Reynolds was giving Gallaraga the outside corner that he wasn't giving to Buchholz, but calling a strike on a fastball missing the zone high and outside by a foot is crazy.

I think that Youkilis must be one of the top ten first basemen in MLB.

Granderson swung six inches too high on Buchholz's strike three changeup.

Buchholz is getting screwed on low strikes.

Yankees annual AL Team ERA rank under Brian Cashman: [table] Year | Rank 1998 | 1 1999 | 2 2000 | 6 2001 | 3 2002 | 4 2003 | 3 2004 | 6 2005 | 9 2006 | 6 2007 | 8 [/table] I researched this initially to defend Cashman, but looking at the numbers it appears that he's struggled after losing his initial talent base of pitchers, especially considering the Yankees' league-leading payrolls.

Great job by Tim Wakefield!