Jayhawk Bill

I love Big Papi.

Mike Lowell displays warning-track power. Folks, this does not augur well.

So I'm sitting here looking at the Yankees' PECOTA Depth Chart and conceptualizing...right now, the Yankees are essentially "missing" these players, through either disability or peculiar inability: [table] Name | 2008 Projected VORP Rodriguez | 62.2 Jeter | 35.2 Posada | 33.2 Cano | 29.7 Hughes | 16.1 Kennedy | 22.0[/table] All told, that's about 1.2 runs per game that the Yankees are missing...."missing" as in either allowing or not scoring, depending. It's 198.4 runs over replacement level lost were this to continue all year. Thoughts: 1) Girardi is keeping the Yankees at .500 in the ultra-tough AL East through smoke, mirrors, and sheer force of will. I really, really hope that he gets fired before Hank realizes how good he is. 2) The Yankees were projected at 96 wins by BP. Every eight games that this continues, scratch one win from that projection. They're already approaching three games under that pace...if these factors continue for, say just sixteen more games (a 15-game DL plus one), we're looking at roughly a 91-win Yankees team in 2008. A "91-win team" will win between 87 and 95 games roughly two-thirds of the time, IIRC, winning more or less a sixth of the time. But it looks as if it'll take a few more than 91 wins--probably more than 95 wins--to take the AL East this year. I'd suggest that the Yankees are in very real danger of not making the ALDS this year unless a few of these superstars and highly-touted young pitchers turn things around.

Nah. Teammates are notorious liars. Look at Jose Canseco--he said that Roger Clemens was faithful to his wife. Seriously, while one might consider teammates' opinions, unless there were some way of norming the surveys and unless the data were available across MLB, a survey would just confuse things.

So you count five, while I count six...not too much difference. *** Interesting that you declined on Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena, the three slow-moving sluggers I chose despite their challenges defensively at first base. I'm not too surprised regarding Carlos Pena: I look at his career and the MLEs for 2006 and I still consider him better, but I acknowledge that it's close. I really think that Howard and Fielder have enough power to edge out Youkilis, but I see your point, especially considering the NL-to-AL difference. I'm still not swayed on Derrek Lee, though. I decided to check BP PECOTA for their thoughts: [table] Year | Youkilis | Lee 2008 | 5.2 | 5.4 2009 | 4.8 | 3.9 2010 | 4.1 | 3.5 2011 | 3.5 | 2.4 2012 | 2.6 | 1.7[/table] BP does like Lee better than Youkilis in 2008, although it's very close once home park effect, difference in the level of competition, and defense are considered. Every year thereafter Youkilis projects to do better than Lee: Lee is three years older, is listed as 25 pounds heavier, has a recent serious injury on his record, and is much more likely to see a collapse in his performance in the next few years. We're looking at 2008. This year, BP agrees with you, but it's a very narrow margin. But if for no other reason than my belief that BP regresses to the mean too much regarding fielding in its projections*, I'll take Youkilis. *** Morneau is projected by BP to be slightly worse for two years, then to overtake Youkilis: [table] Year | Youkilis | Morneau 2008 | 5.2 | 5.1 2009 | 4.8 | 4.6 2010 | 4.1 | 4.5 2011 | 3.5 | 4.0 2012 | 2.6 | 3.6[/table] Morneau wasn't stuck on a bench through 2005 as Youkilis was, and that gives Morneau an "unfair" PECOTA edge: Youkilis was certainly an MLB-level player in 2005, it was just that he was blocked by Mueller, Millar, Olerud, Petagine, and Ramon Vazquez. It's close, but given the slight two-year edge to Youkilis and that factor regarding 2005, I'll stick with Youk against Morneau, too. *** But seriously, we're not too far off regarding our thoughts of where Youkilis would rank, and even if one takes the union of our two sets of "better" first basemen, Youk is still top ten in MLB. :thumbsup: * Last year BP had Youkilis as being eight runs better than Lee; the projection has him only four runs better. I think that the difference between these two players defensively is more than one hit prevented a month, which is what BP postulates. The difference thus far is already two runs in Youk's favor after just one month. Leaving the annual difference at a mere eight runs--two singles a month, not one--gives Youkilis the 0.2 WARP edge, not Lee.

While I understand your enthusiasm, given your screen name I wonder if you're being entirely objective with your enthusiasm. Pedroia's big play set the tone--Big Papi, Manny and Youks for the win. Good finish. :thumbsup:

Stairs gone. Two out.

The wind has shifted from left-to-right to out-to-right. Rios gone...big out.

Wouldn't have worked with the strikeout, but I would've done that, too.

Dunno. Could be. :dunno: In 2005, in particular, he used them repeatedly to justify playing Kevin Millar when it was clear that Millar had lost his power stroke...I think that he uses them to justify playing veterans, but that he plays rookies when he expects veterans to really struggle. We could write to him and ask...?

Yes, I switched to the Toronto feed. Funny, neither announcer commented regarding those bogus strike calls for Halladay vs. Pedroia.

Called strikes two and three to Pedroia were both balls.

Cloudy, 47 F, with a whopping 20 mph wind left to right. Reminds me of Cla Meredith's first MLB game.

I never thought that I'd say that, either. Upon reflection, I don't believe that I ever have said that...

I spent time in Europe before the Internet...day-late boxscores, if you were lucky, was the best you could do. I also remember living in the Southeastern US before MLB Extra Innings or even the old ESPN MLB package, and stringing up a huge longwire antenna to an old crystal-driven radio (a Drake SPR-4, if anybody's curious), catching Red Sox games any way I could. None of the Red Sox network stations reached Georgia reliably, but usually I could catch the games on the other teams' 50,000 watt clear channel flagships, and occasionally I could catch games on Armed Forces Radio via shortwave. It's great having the Internet options we have today, as well as the MLB EI DirecTV package I enjoy. It's not quite as good being in Europe, I guess, but Europe now is beter than either Europe or even Georgia not too long ago.

From the other thread, this link: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/04/28/2008-04-28_mindy_mccready_weeps_as_she_confirms_aff.html Wow. FWIW, I can't find anything in Florida Statutes that Clemens might still be criminally liable for this: if he did engage in sexual relations with Miss McCready when he was 28 and she was 15, it's at worst a second-class felony with a three-year statute of limitations. (Sections 800.04 and 775.15 Florida Statutes; IANAL) This still doesn't look good for Clemens, given that he's launched a lawsuit against McNamee that's predicated upon Clemens's exemplary character being damaged by false statements by McNamee regarding Clemens's alleged PED abuse. McNamee's DNA evidence, coupled with Clemens's damaged character, might seem to leave Clemens slightly vulnerable to countersuit.

You know, I'm not a board-certified Major League Baseball Manager, but I'm thinking that the 42-year-old guy with the 13.50 ERA isn't necessarily the best choice. :dunno: I'm criticizing the use of two relief pitchers: 1) Mike Timlin 2) Bryan Corey I would rather have our AAA guy, Gronk, than either of these two pitchers. With Timlin, in particular, I see Francona making his classic early-season mistake of overtrusting a veteran who has lost the ability to compete. Regarding the rest of our bullpen, I expect them to do perfectly well in their assigned roles, including spot use in high-leverage situations for Aardsma, Hansen and Delcarmen, as well as crucial LOOGY moments with Lopez. *** Go worry about your own bullpen. How are Hawkins and Ohlendorf doing?

I think that the issue is that, for most intents and purposes, Boston just can't seem to win without scoring five or more runs. Record scoring 0-4 runs: 2-10 Record scoring 5-12 runs: 13-2 Driving the point home: Record scoring 3-4 runs: 1-4 Boston has four good starting pitchers and an adequate fifth starter (Lester, who is leading in games started due to minor injuries and flu-like symptoms for others). Only Matsuzaka has an ERA below 4.00, though. The rest of the starters are allowing their share of runs...and Dice-K needs relief help by the 6th or 7th inning in every start. Baltimore is 4-9 scoring four or fewer runs. New York is 5-8. Tampa Bay is only 2-7, but that's still better than 2-10. Toronto is only 2-13, but they're in the cellar, too...that's not the winning formula. I'm suspecting that Boston's performance in low-scoring games is more than bad luck...the pitching (and Terry Francona) need too many runs to hold a win.

"Yes, I met the 15-year-old girl in a bar with my buddies, and I hung out with her for over a decade, and I didn't tell her I was married until she found out by reading something written about me, and I used to fly her off to Las Vegas and New York to party with me, and I loaned her my private jet for her personal use, and she hung out in my bedroom with me at my apartment right next to where I worked but over 1,000 miles from where my wife and kids lived, and I sent her bundles of cash by FedEx after we broke up instead of just writing her a check from my multi-million-dollar bank accounts... ...but I never had sex with that woman." *** This is less plausible than his denying that he used PEDs.