Jayhawk Bill

Those aren't the official rules of baseball. Do fast runners get the benefit of the doubt at first base? Do Gold Glovers get one bounce on fly balls? Would we accept that? I know how the game is called...heck, I've been a player or a fan for twice as long as you've been alive. I even know the tendency of ball calls to increase with wildness in MLB in 2007: it's a difference of an extra 0.15 runs per game for pitchers averaging over 42% balls in the first two innings, and 0.15 runs is roughly equal to one extra ball call.* Why so low? Because most top-notch professional umpires DO NOT call balls and strikes that way: they call the defined strike zone. It's their job. What we've come to expect from lower-level umpires or pre-QuesTec/Pitch f/x MLB umpires need not continue and should not be tolerated. Most umpires have "seen the writing on the wall" and have adjusted their game calling to make it as accurate as possible. Derryl Cousins called a different strike zone for Clay Buchholz than for any other pitcher last night. I don't accept that bias, and I'm surprised that you would. * Research by Dan Turkenkopf

And with umpires like Gerry Davis and Derryl Cousins, he might thrive upon his return to MLB. Ian Kennedy can only succeed in MLB if he gets an extra two to four inches on the outside of the plate. Watch and see.

Check the Game Thread. Almost half (40%) of his pitches that should've been called strikes were called balls instead, and no pitch just outside the strike zone was a called strike. I say that we keep Buchholz up for a while.

Pardon my being called away from the TalkSox Board during the game. I'll check Pitch f/x records tomorrow sometime. To my naked eye it looks as if Buchholz was screwed royally by Derryl Cousins, a guy who's been unfair to Boston in the past on occasion, IIRC. I don't know if it was a seven-run difference, but it really doesn't look good. Edit: The data files are posted. [table] Name | + | - Buchholz | 0 | 10 Lopez | 0 | 0 Hansen | 0 | 0 Timlin | 0 | 0 - | - | - Hernandez | 3 | 3 Rincon | 1 | 2 Crain | 1 | 0 [/table] Cousins called every pitch perfectly for Lopez, Hansen and Timlin. His calls for Minnesota were balanced, and every missed call was close. Cousins buttf***ed Buchholz: by my quick count, Cousins had to make a call on 25 pitches that Buchholz threw through the strike zone, and he made the wrong call on 40% of them by calling them balls. The odds of an umpire making 10 errors all in the same direction are one in 1,024. At the 99.9% confidence level, Cousins's calls weren't random chance. We never had a chance to win this game, folks. That's the second time this season we've found something biased at the 99.9% level.

Wasn't Chacin just released to make room for Mench? :dunno:

6-14 for Casey...0-1 for Youk.

Sean Casey has a .429 lifetime average against Livan Hernandez. Youk has a .000 career average vs. Hernandez. Also, Tito likes to start position players joining/rejoining the team.

As a reminder, a DFA gives Boston ten days to trade Tavarez before he must be released (or, against odds, sent to the minors).

Clay Buchholz is a criminal. We are not speaking of a mild-mannered willow-framed young outfielder whose opportunity to play in Major League Baseball rests upon his ability to run 90 feet from first to second base faster than the pitcher can throw the baseball home and the catcher can return it to second base. Such a man would be playing by the rules. We are speaking of a criminal, a man capable of grand larceny, a man who sees what he wants and takes it, rules and laws and consequences be damned. Clay Buchholz is not a great thrower. He's got a 92-95 mph fastball, an adequate slider, and very good changeup and curveballs, but there are other pitchers with better stuff. Buchholz is too young and too slender. Jon Lester has three times the MLB experience of Clay Buchholz. Young Josh Beckett has SEVENTEEN TIMES as many innings pitched as Clay Buchholz. But Boston is about to lose a series if Buchholz can't get a win tonight, star hitter Manny Ramirez is hurting, the team had a heartbreaking loss last night, they now have a losing road record for the season, and the kid is going to take the mound against the AL Central-leading Twins. The Twins have 5-1 3.83 ERA Livan Hernandez pitching for them. Hernandez DOES have experience. What he now lacks in velocity he makes up for with guile, choosing unerringly the best pitch for every situation. Boston will probably struggle against Hernandez. Buchholz cannot hope to match his experience. Where Buchholz can and will excel is in nerve, determination and character--and by character, I mean the character of a thief. Watch Buchholz on the mound. He knows what he wants; he takes what he wants. Sometimes he doesn't get it--his last outing he gave up five runs in four innings, even though half of his outs were strikeouts--but such moments are only temporary setbacks. Buchholz believes himself entitled to win tonight, and that's something that Livan Hernandez is too old and battered to expect any more. In a battle of AL Division leaders, having that cockiness is a crucial edge. Game Time 7:05 Win.

You know that if I doubted your mojo, it was only because I believed that there was statistical evidence to do so.

Watch the Padres: Alvarez is a flyball pitcher who'd thrive in PETCO, and he's probably better than their fifth starter, Justin Germano. Of course, watch to see what the Yankees do, too...

Are you assessing Tavarez by his dozen innings this year? He's healthy, and he has a good track record starting in Coors Field. He's worth a prospect...let's see if the trade goes down and how much salary Boston has to cover if it does go down. I'll predict that either Colorado picks up the whole contract OR that the talent returned is close to Fowler's worth if a trade is made.

"Untouchable?" Here are the top 20 PECOTA comparables for Dexter Fowler: 1 Sheldon Fulse 2 Rashad Eldridge 3 Dwight Maness 4 Kevin Gibbs 5 Ray Holbert 6 Kenny Kelly 7 Ron Krause 8 Cesar Crespo 9 Keith Mckoy 10 Andre King 11 Brian Hunter 12 Jarred Ball 13 Larue Baber 14 Tarrik Brock 15 Nook Logan 16 Jeff Jackson 17 Nathan Haynes 18 Jamie Athas 19 Carl Everett 20 Dave Krynzel Carl Everett had an OK career, attitude aside (peak value seven wins a year, but with erratic ups and downs). Brian Hunter and Nook Logan were a rung lower (peak value under four wins a year). The rest were washouts. You see Tavarez as a "washed up long man;" I see Tavarez as a currently healthy guy who started 23 games last year and is one of the few active MLB pitchers with a demonstrated track record of reasonable success at hitters' paradise Coors Field (career ERA 4.42 in 89.3 IP there). You see Fowler as "untouchable;" I see a guy 85% likely not to have an MLB career worth anything. Cheez, you're so negative about this I'd almost wonder if you even liked the Red Sox. Oh, wait...never mind.

Although the morning data files seem to show that Marty Foster called a fair and good game overall, Julian Tavarez got screwed on ball-strike calls. Tavarez lost four calls out of only 20 calls made, getting none back in his favor. That's a run's worth of wrong calls--he only gave up one run. Good appearance by Tavarez.

Bummer. We lost. On the bright side, our stopper pitches tomorrow! Night, y'all.

Wow. I thought that Dexter Fowler was fair value; I overestimated.

Coco Crisp ate Youk's Wheaties this morning.

Yeah, I agree on Moss. How's this: Julian Tavarez for Dexter Fowler? Fowler is a 22-year-old CF who probably won't make MLB, but he's showing surprising power in AA (5 HR in 134 AB, .269/.368/.463 thus far). He's always had good OBP and excellent speed, and--here's where he fits into the Red Sox system--he was recruited by Harvard to play basketball because of his combination of intelligence and athleticism. PECOTA Stars and Scrubs chart: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/FOWLER19860322A_010.png That looks to be fair value for Tavarez.

Poorly phrased comment on my part. I usually agree with you--it's just that we agree on an issue where the stats are against us both this time. That's unusual--I blame a small sample size in 2008.

There's nobody who could help that they're planning to trade. The possible exception is Atkins, but he's worth far more than Tavarez. I think that any deal would be a second-tier prospect for Tavarez, but with Colorado assuming some/most of the contract liability for Tavarez.