Jayhawk Bill

Three home runs tonight: Youkilis, Crisp and Lowrie. No runs except for solo home runs...but I'll take a lead.

Yes...3-2 lead! Lowrie home run!!!

Matsuzaka has allowed only 2 runs through 6 IP, and he's only thrown 80 pitches. Tie game!

In Eric Gagne's favor, I'd like to point out that he has a 0.00 ERA in games in which his team was behind when he entered the game thus far in 2008...even though he has a 7.10 ERA in Save situations.* FWIW, with Boston he was 13.48 in Save situations and 4.05 in other situations. *** What is the idiomatic construction for "choke" in French? * Edit: not counting today's blown save and loss.

I think that Matsuzaka is losing a little velocity on his pitches.

In seven 2008 starts, Matsuzaka has pitched either 6 2/3 IP or 7 IP three times. Interestingly, though, he's not done it on any of his starts that came on just four days' rest...with long rest, he throws roughly the same number of pitches but retires more batters. *** May 9 through May 25 was probably the best stretch of Matsuzaka's 2007 season. I choose optimism for tonight.

Who is Glen Perkins? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5825 That "hard curveball" is only about a 78 mph curve...looking at limited Pitch f/x data, I think that his slider might be more of an out pitch. Regarding "durable," this is his first MLB start, it's coming at age 25, he's averaged under 5 IP/start in MiLB, and he had to be shut down due to a "sore shoulder" in 2007. His one PECOTA comparable who was an above-average MLB player is Tug McGraw, who found his niche as a closer after serving as a spot starter through his early twenties. Few of the readers here at TalkSox would recognize more than two or three of the comparables, because most of them crashed and burned or wallowed in mediocrity a decade or two back. Perkins's 50th percentile PECOTA is a 2-4 W-L record and a 5.65 ERA, pitching mostly in relief. His work in AAA this spring is better, posting a 2.97 ERA in seven games, six of them starts. That would be an MLE ERA a little below 4.00. Perkins has less of a platoon split than many LHP. He's actually had a reverse split thus far in his MLB career, as well as during his 2008 AAA time. *** Boston's disciplined, hard-hitting lineup should be able to handle Perkins. He's a decent pitcher, but he's not a rising superstar. Let's hope that Matsuzaka can throw seven innings tonight to save the bullpen.

Wow. Starting Game Threads on TalkSox is easier than I'd thought.

Ah, thanks. FWIW, while Lugo has 11 errors, the average AL SS has around four. It's a difference of, essentially, seven singles, and Lugo less seven singles would still be batting adequately for a shortstop. Maybe not an eight million dollar shortstop... ...but he's not doing the damage that it seems.

Talk to me in the Edmonds thread and I'll defend it. 'Til then, of course, Lugo's defense is a reason that it works for the Red Sox.

Crap. Lugo's errors almost seem driven by evil gods.

No. Never "just take the $ loss." *** That said, I still support Crisp + Lugo to San Diego for Greene...but the Padres have to eat the salary (and they have the revenue to do that).

That is why I worry.

Love the link, ORS. He swung 10% of the time over his career, but his last hit on a 3-0 count was in 2005.

Professional job by JD Drew scoring on the ground ball...most MLB players come home, but he could've hesitated.

Boof Bonser saved a run on Gomez's errant throw.

You know, Bonser is locating his fastball very well tonight thus far. Mauer isn't, though.

Gom, he's not ready for prime time. Trade Kennedy to the Royals and he'll get by, but I really think that he's struggling in Gotham. As an aside, I don't enjoy what's happening to the Yankees any more than you do. The lead isn't huge, but I cannot remember the Yankees being so shaken this century, even in 2005. I prefer a clash of two titans, not a Yankees team hanging on by smoke, mirrors and Joe Girardi's underappreciated management.

Does Manny ever swing 3-0? :dunno:

18 SB and 4 CS...career. He understands high-percentage base stealing, so he rarely steals. In 2007, he was 4-0 stealing bases. Edit: If we're talking career, and given the contemporary philosophy that one breaks even at a 3-1 ratio of SB/CS, Greene is +6 career and Lugo is -4 career. Obviously, Lugo is faster--the value of that extra speed may not be too great.

Big Papi is 5-6 with 2 HR vs. Boof Bonser. Youk is 1-1, a home run. The Twins are 5-25 vs. Lester, no home runs.

Hmmm...link, please. I checked both your user name and my user name on search, found my threads on Greene for Lugo and Crisp, and found nothing from you. :dunno: Here's what I had to say: I hope the best for Jim Edmonds, a guy who'll garner interest from HoF voters in five or so years. What this means to me is that San Diego needs a CF, and that means discussion of what we might get for Crisp from a team bereft of minor-league talent. This is the best deal that I can conceive as a win-win for both teams, salaries and contracts considered.

Cool! I never would've thought that David Wells would've had a PECOTA Card for 2008. 50th Percentile: 5-8, 5.71 ERA. I would've guessed worse.