Jayhawk Bill

First pitch inches away from Iwamura's chin.

Dear Mr. Theo Epstein: Bring up Craig Hansen, please. Sincerely, Jayhawk Bill

Best wishes to Brandon Moss, who is quickly becoming Mrs. JHB's favorite player.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/05/03/rehabbing_schilling_hopes_to_catch_a_break/ Bold added. Curt Schilling is on the cusp of Hall of Fame selection. One more "heroic" postseason run would seal the deal. That's what's going on here, and that's why I believe that Curt Schilling is VERY strongly motivated to return in September. We'll know more in two weeks.

Yeah, ESPN chose a good picture... http://assets.espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/65x90/7307.jpg ...but that's from his time with the White Sox, AFTER he'd already learned how to pitch. Here's a picture from when he was STILL LEARNING in AAA: http://woolis.com/images/2006ICubs/06BB05-16%20087Aardsma.jpg See the difference? *** OK, LD% is, of course, "Line Drive Percentage." Aardsma is only allowing 12.5% of balls in play to be line drives, while 16% or higher is more typical. LD% is a good metric regarding how hard a pitcher is being hit.

Aardsma has allowed only a 12.5% LD%, suggesting that opposing batters are having trouble making good contact. He's actually had some bad luck on BABIP: none of his line drives allowed have yet been fielded by Boston's defense, while normally about 70% are caught. His WHIP is high, but it's largely walks, and walks are only 70% as important as singles. Let's see how he does...but right now let's celebrate his solid start with Boston.

Concur. He's at least two-thirds decent. *** I saw both Yaz and Manny in left field. Yaz was better--no contest in any respect, either range or throwing arm or knowledge of the wall. *** Good game. This was fun to watch.

Yeah...I'm back. Nice game. I was posting that I see Schilling back late in the season...I see Colon making spot starts sooner, but I don't see him lasting all season in the shape he's in after throwing hard all winter.

Welcome back to the community, Timlin in the 8th. Good to see that you are still not surprised at all.

Nah. I'd like more power. I'd like more walks, too. Until we're winning 100+ games a season, we need to get better. One way to get better would be to increase the average value of the other 24 players on the 25-man roster to the value of Kevin Youkilis.

Checking Pitch f/x this morning (just for Buchholz and Jackson), Chuck Meriwether called a tight strike zone. Jackson lost seven strikes, while Buchholz lost eight, all of those calls coming near the top and bottom of the zone. Neither pitcher had a thrown ball called a strike by Meriwether. With a tight strike zone, Boston's discipline gives them an advantage. Our margin of victory was greater than that, but it helped.

Cool! I foresee a happy 2008 Red Sox season for you! :thumbsup:

Josh Kalk runs that site I just linked. He's drawing down every pitch from Pitch f/x by pitcher ID number so it's career stats...or as "career" as Pitch f/x is. Pitch f/x was introduced late in 2006 and was introduced ballpark-by-ballpark across MLB in 2007, with Camden Yards, the last park, being added in 2008.

Cut me some slack--you're posting things as if they're true to try to discredit my post, and I'm disproving them one by one because, um, they seem to be false. :dunno: You might acknowledge that the stats are heavily on my side as you express subjective disbelief. Your opinion is your opinion, and you're as good a fan as I am...but this time the facts were on my side, as outrageous as the comment "the umpire rigged the game" sounds.

Most games aren't. I point out the ones where there's a statistically significant bias--this is one. Cool! Thanks! By the way, um, any evidence to back up your assertion, kinda like I had? :dunno:

Adjusting the official count to reflect Pitch f/x, pitches and strikes: Burnett: 112-63 (56.25%) Wakefield: 97-61 (62.9%) Wakefield was more "around the strike zone" than Burnett, and he lost five calls while Burnett got five. Any other bright ideas to excuse Gerry Davis?

Concur. So would late runs, as well as middle-inning runs. Frankly, I'd be happy with Boston players up and running, running for office, running wild, running with the Big Dogs, maximizing gain in the long run, or pushing for success in the short run. I'd be ecstatic to hear Don Orsillo describing Boston's success in run-on sentences. If we were leading after the fifth, I'd be happy over if there were a cloudburst over Fenway and a river ran through it. I'd settle for a delay of game while a PETA babe raced onto the diamond carrying a John Updike novel screaming, "Run, Rabbit, Run!" Frankly, right now I'm at the point where I'd be happy missing the part of the game where Boston got the game-winning hit because I had the runs. But let's hope that tonight starts a good run of luck. :thumbsup: *** Edit: Marc Normandin, BP: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7459

I'll happily concur. You can't fault Youkilis for lacking power--there's more to hitting than power. Jim Rice was arguably the best power hitter of his generation in the AL (Mike Schmidt was better in the NL), and Rice was, for a time before he retired, the AL leader in career home runs. His teammate Boggs was still a better hitter. Likewise, Youkilis shouldn't be discounted at first base for a lack of power hitting.

ORS, if we're faulting cases, let's look at yours: 1) How relevant are any of Lee's stats over three years past in evaluating his current value? 2) How relevant are home-road splits including those years from the distant past, especially when they're years in a very different ballpark? 3) But, since you bring up career trends, is 2005 really a representative year in Lee's career? BR credits Lee with 6.3 batting wins in 2005. His second-best year is 2007, the year you discount as an anomaly, where he had 2.7 batting wins. OK, his 2002 tied his 2007, and his 2003 was 2.6 batting wins, but in 1,413 games--nine 157-game seasons--he's accumulated only 18.3 batting wins. That's 2.0 batting wins per full season--and that's even lower than Lee's 2007, despite completely forgiving time lost due to injury and bench time as a young player. It looks to me as if 2007 is slightly generous, not misrepresentative in any other way. 4) And, before you look up Youk's batting wins, they're lower but they're not normed interleague...Youk's EqA normed for all time was .297 in 2007, while Lee's was .305, and that doesn't consider Youk's defense nor Lee's unusual home-road split (it does adjust for normal park factors, but Lee draws a higher-than-normal advantage from Wrigley Field). In 2006 Youk was better than Lee. In 2007 it was very close. In 2008, the topic of discussion, I still would want Youk over Lee. BP calls it close, but they favor you, ORS, as does every other poster. I'll wait for October to tally stats. I'm backing Kevin Youkilis, even if I stand alone.

Set aside fielding. Who was the better hitter, Wade Boggs or Jim Rice? Consider peak, career, and 162-game average stats. Who prevails? Answer the question and I'll happily bring this tangent back to topic.