When I look at Lester, I think of a poor mans Andy Pettite, much like Trot was a poor mans Paul O'Neil (although Oneil was the better player by a very wide margain, and besides intensity I never saw the comparison).
That being said, Pettite himself has only put up those types of numbers 2.....maybe three times in his whole career (he was also 23 when he came up). Even in his prime, I see maybe 15-10 record with a low 4 ERA. Throws way too many pitches thus far, and walks way too many batters to have consistent success.
Pettite has been one of the best LH's in baseball for over 10 years. If nothing else, hes one of the more consistent, you know exactly what you will get, and there are not many other big game pitchers like him.
Pettites average season is 17-9 3.83
I predicted 12-8, 4.45 ERA, 1.35 whip, 130K, 26 starts.
I think his career averages will be about 14-15 wins, 4.50 ERA.