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It's great to look for surplus value, to be strategic, and to sign players who suit your roster needs. But you know what else is great? Getting the best player on the market.
“It’s expensive to sign baseball players,” John Henry once said, much to the chagrin of Red Sox fans. Henry’s statement rings true. Free agent contract values are increasing each year. Last offseason, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700-million contract to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which broke the previous record for the most expensive professional sports contract. Previously, Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5-million extension was the largest contract in baseball.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the free agent market dipped following the 2020 season. Free agents affected by the shortened pandemic season “only” inked $1.36 billion total in contracts. However, since then, the total value of free-agent contracts has risen steadily. Some players, arguably, aren’t worth their gargantuan contracts. Others are.
Twenty-six-year-old future Hall of Famers like Juan Soto seldom enters free agency. The Athletic projects that Soto will garner a 12-year, $540-million contract. He’s worth every penny, and the Red Sox must pursue him.
Sure, money is paramount to Soto, but winning comes in at a close second. It’s important to point out that the Red Sox are behemoths in recent World Series history. Since 2004, they have a 16-3 record in the World Series. On the other hand, the Yankees possess a 5-6 record. Sniping the Yankees' primary offseason target is a dub by itself.
The Yankees' core is not sustainable. The World Series accentuated their roster construction flaws, from their shoddy defense to their inefficiency on the basepaths. Moreover, the Yankees have the second-oldest roster in the league at an average age of 29.3. Their roster is constrained by several aging superstars in the middle of expensive, long-term contracts. Gerrit Cole (34), Carlos Rodón (31), and Giancarlo Stanton (34) are being paid at least $25 million per year until 2027 or 2028. Aaron Judge has about $280 million remaining on his contract.
As I mentioned earlier, Juan Soto is 26 years old. He’s two years younger than Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. Soto has shown that his floor is an All-Star caliber player in six MLB seasons. His ceiling is a perennial top-10 MVP candidate and Silver Slugger winner.
Soto would be “just another guy” in the crowded dugouts of the Yankees or Dodgers clubhouse, but he could be the star of the Red Sox. The Red Sox have a young homegrown core. Any egregious long-term contracts don’t saddle the organization. They have a strong farm system. Sustainable contention looms over the horizon, but they need someone to push them over from mediocrity.
Over the past couple of seasons, it seems like the Red Sox are banking on the Big Four to impact the major-league roster immediately. Putting all their eggs in one basket is a risky move. At the very least, one of the Big Four will break out in the majors. Allocating some, not all, of their resources toward a generational talent provides them with a backup plan and insurance in case any of their prospects fail to perform in the majors.
Opponents argue, “But Soto is a left-handed hitter! The team has too many lefties!” The roster is notably lefty-heavy, but it’s not like the Red Sox lefties can’t hit against left-handed pitching. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers hold 114 and 98 wRC+ career splits against southpaws.
Soto is frequently likened to Ted Williams for a reason. He has no trouble hitting the ball, regardless of a pitcher’s handedness. Look at his career splits against left-handed pitching.
|
Career |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
RBI |
HR |
K% |
wRC+ |
|
vs LHP |
.268 |
.383 |
.475 |
191 |
56 |
18.0 |
135 |
Wouldn't you like to see the second coming of Ted Williams spend the rest of his career in Fenway Park? Slotting Soto into the lineup would exacerbate the lefty-dominant nature of the lineup, but his career splits mark a substantial improvement over Ceddanne Rafaela (62 wRC+), Masataka Yoshida (84 wRC+), and Jarren Duran (88 wRC+).
It's also important to remember that injuries were part of the reason the lineup was so lefty-heavy. The holes Vaughn Grissom and Trevor Story left in the infield were filled by left-handed batters David Hamilton, Dom Smith, and Enmanuel Valdez , creating a false narrative that the lineup is too reliant on left-handed batters. It should look a little more balanced next year with (fingers crossed) healthy seasons from Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom.
Assuming Wilyer Abreu is traded, imagine this lineup:
- CF Jarren Duran (L)
- LF Juan Soto (L)
- 3B Rafael Devers (L)
- 1B Triston Casas (L)
- SS Trevor Story (R)
- DH Masataka Yoshida (L)
- C Connor Wong (R)
- RF Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
- 2B Vaughn Grissom (R)
Beautiful, no?
Along with Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, Soto will exasperate opposing pitchers, driving pitch counts up and opposing managers insane.
Soto could provide some cushion for Raffy and alleviate him from the burden/expectation of carrying the team’s offense. Despite being the team’s highest-paid player and the face of the franchise, Devers is notably reserved and shies away from the media. He’s not an outspoken leader, preferring to stay quiet and let his work speak for itself. This is fine, but the Boston media is intense and passionate. Soto is a showy performer and doesn’t shy away from the spotlight. By taking center stage in the organization, he would reduce pressure from the media.
Lefties with opposite field power can take advantage of the Green Monster and Soto is no exception. He pulled the ball more frequently while playing in Yankee Stadium last year, but he's capable of spraying the ball all over the field.
Soto would pepper Lansdowne Street with home runs. He could easily hit 50+ home runs playing 81 games at Fenway each year. Heck, he might surpass David Ortiz’s single-season record of 54 home runs.
Speaking of which, like David Ortiz, Soto is Dominican. He plays for the Dominican World Baseball team. The Red Sox have a strong history of Dominican baseball stars. Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez’s contributions to the 2004 Red Sox will never be forgotten. This past spring, the organization recently updated its Dominican Academy and played an exhibition series in Santo Domingo (Soto’s hometown). Juan Soto grew up idolizing Manny, Pedro, and Big Papi. Why not join Rafael Devers and Brayan Bello to form a new Dominican trio?
Smart investments matter for sustainable contention. You can’t put a brand-new 2025 Ferrari 812 GTS engine in a 1995 PT Cruiser and expect the car to run smoothly. You also can’t keep “fixing” glaring holes with Band-Aids and expect a winning product on the field. The Red Sox indicated they’ll stop cosplaying as a small market team and are ready to spend. Simply spending for the sake of spending isn’t sustainable. They must be cognizant of where they're allocating their resources.
That said, the Red Sox have a list of things that need fixing in the offseason. Their outfield was a bright spot on the team and doesn’t necessarily need any additional help. However, landing a generational talent like Soto should take precedence over their other issues, and the Red Sox must be proactive. Pursue Soto and let the rest of the roster sort itself out.
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