2026 Prospects

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Perales didn't.

I thought he did, from what I remember the reports were pretty good on him when he came back. 

[drewski6]

Perales is undersized with a weird delivery.  Valera has tree trunk legs, well built for the role, and a delivery that is so repeatable, its almost boring.  

They have similarities, such as injury history and relief pitcher risk.

Valera has a high 90s fastball that he throws from the stretch.  He has a much higher floor.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I thought he did, from what I remember the reports were pretty good on him when he came back. 

He pitched 2 innings in 2025.

He pitched 34 IP in '24.

[moonslav59]

Woo was being no hit before Arias cracked a double to bring in 2 runs. Woo later tied it, but lost in the 9th.

POR lost but Gonzo keep bashing the ball (2-4 w 3B and at 1.295) Anthony went 1-3 w 2 Ks. Futrell pitched okay,

SAL lost 7-5 for the clean sweep, and GRE's game was delayed. Selar wen't o-5 w 4Ks. Primera is a beast 2-4 with a BB (1.020.) Guzman is eating up and homered (.856)

[moonslav59]

Last winter, Brez made a flurry of seemingly minor deals to free up some roster space right before the Rule 5 draft. (Remember, he add Sandlin, Drohan & Uberstine- all gone now plus nontendered N Lowe and Winckowski.)

Here is a look at those 4 trades:

Bernardino for Braiden Ward. Ward is 27 and fast. Notin has wanted him promoted several times, but the Sox have never been added to the 40. He's hitting .702, now, but he was a .363 OBP and 53 SBs. This deal may still work into a plus.

Chris Murphy for Ronny Hernandez. He's only 21, but will likely be a DH or 1Bman if he ever makes it. He's on GRE, so his numbers are tainted, but not every GRE batter is at .959 with 13 HRs and 22 XBHs in just 191 ABs. This deal could be a plus over time.

Alex Hoppe for Luke Heyman. He's batting .800 with 17 HRs & 31 XBHs in 323 ABs. Again, he on the RE team. he's 23 and could improve.

Luis Guerrero for Tristan Gray (later traded for Nate Baez) Baez is a 25 y/o catcher in AAA and is depth. He's at .681 but is 8th in farm PAs for POR/Woo. He has 30 XBHs in 323 ABs

Not long afterwards, Brez traded

Grissom for Isaiah Jackson. Jackson has started to heat up to .793. He's shown some power with 18 HRs and 36 XBHs in 334 ABs. Grissom has done okay, but we were done with him.

and a more meaningful deal of J Garcia + Travieso for Oviedo (IL) Samaniego (AAA) and Adonys Guzman. Guzman has been hot. He's over .800 after tonight's 10th HR in 222 ABs

The last somewhat meaningful deal (at the time) was Luis Perales for Jake Bennett. This deal speaks for itself--- WOW!

It's interesting to note that 4 of the acquired players were catchers or C/1B/DH types. Most trades are clearly TBD, but some nice starts.

[moonslav59]

The farm went 0-4 today.

[moonslav59]

Justin Gonzales is just 19 and in AA, now.

Arias is 20 and in AAA. Maybe he gets promoted to MLB, this fall.

19 year old, Primera was promoted to Salem

20 year old Valera in on the IL with GRE, and Delzine is with Salem at age 19,That's 4 of the top 7 prospects on the young side at each level.

The others are...

4. Godbout 22 at AA.

6. Schaffner 21 at A+.

8. Hull 22 at A+

9. Holobetz 24 AAA and 10. Wehunt 25 AAA

11. Phillips 22 A+

The next 4 are 18-20: Mataczynski 18 FCL, Cespedes 20 AA, Shelar 19 A- and Soto 18 at FCL,

[Hugh2]

Breslow has traded away 5 of our last 6 first round draft picks (exluding this year for obvious reasons).

For many other reasons, looking at the team in Boston and the minors top to bottom.  The system is pretty much all his now.  At the very least about as much as a system can be after only just a few years. 

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Justin Gonzales is just 19 and in AA, now.

Arias is 20 and in AAA. Maybe he gets promoted to MLB, this fall.

19 year old, Primera was promoted to Salem

20 year old Valera in on the IL with GRE, and Delzine is with Salem at age 19,That's 4 of the top 7 prospects on the young side at each level.

The others are...

4. Godbout 22 at AA.

6. Schaffner 21 at A+.

8. Hull 22 at A+

9. Holobetz 24 AAA and 10. Wehunt 25 AAA

11. Phillips 22 A+

The next 4 are 18-20: Mataczynski 18 FCL, Cespedes 20 AA, Shelar 19 A- and Soto 18 at FCL,

I think a lot of this is the graduations and trades.  Prospect evaluaters are always weighing proximity to majors and ceiling.  When a lot of guys in the high minors are either graduating or being traded it seems to make sense what is left over at the top are high ceiling further away guys. 

The way I look at that is I try to see the higher variance.  Those guys can all bust, but if more break towards good than bad then we'll look back in a few years and not see the system as being very weak right now at all. 

I really do like the two guys we have at the top after Arias (Gonzalez/Primera). 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I think a lot of this is the graduations and trades.  Prospect evaluaters are always weighing proximity to majors and ceiling.  When a lot of guys in the high minors are either graduating or being traded it seems to make sense what is left over at the top are high ceiling further away guys. 

The way I look at that is I try to see the higher variance.  Those guys can all bust, but if more break towards good than bad then we'll look back in a few years and not see the system as being very weak right now at all. 

I really do like the two guys we have at the top after Arias (Gonzalez/Primera). 

Yes, this farm is really the top 3, and all of them are very young for their level.

Our 22 year old and older prospects don't look very promising, but some were just drafted this year or last year. They could change some minds. I'm still holding out hope for Brannon and Jo Garcia.

The many 18-21 year olds in the top 15-25 can rise quickly.

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, this farm is really the top 3, and all of them are very young for their level.

Our 22 year old and older prospects don't look very promising, but some were just drafted this year or last year. They could change some minds. I'm still holding out hope for Brannon and Jo Garcia.

The many 18-21 year olds in the top 15-25 can rise quickly.

 

I wouldn't say 19 is very young for A- these days. Justin and Arias are for sure young for their levels. 

[Hugh2]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, this farm is really the top 3, and all of them are very young for their level.

Our 22 year old and older prospects don't look very promising, but some were just drafted this year or last year. They could change some minds. I'm still holding out hope for Brannon and Jo Garcia.

The many 18-21 year olds in the top 15-25 can rise quickly.

 

I'd say there's a lot of intriguing guys outside the top 3, certainly some guys who have blue chip prospect ceiling, but there's a greater chance they never reach the majors too; Soto/Valera/Delzine, and we haven't seen the 2026 picks in much action yet.  But yeah, the system has taken a hit.....as it should. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd say there's a lot of intriguing guys outside the top 3, certainly some guys who have blue chip prospect ceiling, but there's a greater chance they never reach the majors too; Soto/Valera/Delzine, and we haven't seen the 2026 picks in much action yet.  But yeah, the system has taken a hit.....as it should. 

Hull looks interesting so far. Not a lot of names that I'd be upset over losing this offseason TBH. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't say 19 is very young for A- these days. Justin and Arias are for sure young for their levels. 

True on the "very." My bad.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Hull looks interesting so far. Not a lot of names that I'd be upset over losing this offseason TBH. 

I'm not sure many have much trade value, and it seems like Brez has already purged the farm of most of the Bloom prospects. He even purged several prospects he had acquired earlier.

I'm not seeing a major Rule 5 or 40 man roster crunch, this winter, unless Brez plans on adding 5-6 FAs or 40 man roster players via trades without 40 man guys going back in exchange.

Last Fall and early winter, Brez was busy downsizing the 40 and bubble roster guys:

He added Sandlin, Drohan and Uberstine for protection from Rule 5 and traded for Rule 5 guy Ryan Watson in exchange for a non 40 man prospect. That was +4.

He non tendered Nate Lowe and Winckowski (-2)

Traded Guerrero, Murphy & Bernardino for not 40 guys (-3)

He also traded Alex Hoppe and T Gray for a non 40 guys.

Traded Hicks & Sandlin for a non 40 guy (-2)

Fitts and prospects for Gray and the 3 for 3 Brewer trade were 40 man washes.

This cleared the way for...

Signed Suarez, Coulombe & IKF and claimed Gasper & Cheng off waivers (+5)

I doubt there is a lot of minor moves like last off season, but Brez is not shy on winter trades.

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Hull looks interesting so far. Not a lot of names that I'd be upset over losing this offseason TBH. 

I'm not really sure we have the names to lose.  We shouldn't expect any big trades this offseason, unless we are subtracting from the big league roster. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not really sure we have the names to lose.  We shouldn't expect any big trades this offseason, unless we are subtracting from the big league roster. 

I agree. Of course, I'm assuming players don't get hurt tying their shoes over the winter, but with guys coming off the IL, our everyday player situation looks to have more bottlenecks than holes. I'd still like a big bat added, and we have some depth areas we can trade from, but I doubt we see more than one significant add.

The pitching is a bit more uncertain, especially with Gray being a FA. The IL guys are question marks, too.

Here is the all-healthy 2027 foundation:

C: Rutschman & Wong (Jo Garcia-Gasper)

1B: Contreras/Romy (Casas-Gasper)

2B: Meade, Story-Soard-Monasterio-Seigler (Rodgers)

SS: Arias/Story-Soard-Monasterio (Cheng)

3B: Durbin, Harris (Romero)

LF: Anthony/Duran, Jones (Gonzales)

CF: Rafaela, White (Ward)

RF: Abreu, Eaton (Campbell)

DH: Anthony/Yoshida & Story/Romy (Hickey/Brannon)

Too many 2Bmen.

SP: Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Oviedo (Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz, Ziehl, Burgos)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Kelly (Samaniego, Bastardo, Rivera, Gamboa, Olds, Song)

Needs:

1. Big bat (LF/DH & trade Duran)

2. SP

3. RP 

 

[moonslav59]

Looking at the top 30 and 60 lists, I kinda feel like I'm about ready to write off a bunch of players are being very longshots at making MLB and doing anything productive- beyond maybe as a utility player or RP'er. It's like I'm not even viewing on these guys as top 20:

9. Holobetz, 10 Wehunt, 16 Bastardo, 17 Paez, 23 Rivera, 21 Romero & 23 Mullins

I tend to overvalue younger guys and their upside potential, but these might be some somewhat older prospects that might have one last shot at moving up:

13. Cespedes (only 20, but this is his 4th year in prof ball)

30. Castro (23) I've all but written him off.

34. Brannon (22)

35. Jo Garcia (21)

Taking out these guys listed above, except Cespedes, Brannon & Garcia, this might be my rankings now:

1. Arias 20 AAA> MLB in '27

2. Gonzales 19 AA>AAA in 27

3. Primera 19 A

4. Hull 22 AA

5. Valera 20 AA

6. Scaffner AA

7. Godbout 22 AAA

8. Soto A

9. Delzine A

10. Mataczynski 18 A

11, Shelar 19 A

12. Cespedes 20 AAA

13. Gutierrez 22 AA

14. Winnay 23AAA

15. Heyman 23 AA

16. M White 22 AAA

17. Jo Garcia 21 AAA

18. LaFavor 18 A

19. Phillips 22 AA

20. Brannon 22 AAA

 

 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not really sure we have the names to lose.  We shouldn't expect any big trades this offseason, unless we are subtracting from the big league roster. 

With the lockout looming, probably going to be a long boring winter. Maybe a flurry of activity at the end of November and late Spring? 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With the lockout looming, probably going to be a long boring winter. Maybe a flurry of activity at the end of November and late Spring? 

That's what I would bet on happening.....if I was a betting man. 

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Needs:

1. Big bat (LF/DH & trade Duran)

2. SP

3. RP 

 

Problem is, where are you going to get those guys? I think you'd have to go to the trade market for a 1 & 3.  I think you can get a good depth option starting pitcher or mid rotation guy in FA.  I'd be pretty happy seeing if Sonny Gray wanted to resign and roll out

Crochett/Gray/Tolle/Suarez/Bennett next year.  And we will also have option such as Bello/Crawford/Houck/Oviedo+ not that I'd put a ton of stock into those 4, but I bet one of them emerges as an important contributor in 2027.  And seeing what the pitching staff has done this year.....I'd be very very very curious to see what someone like Oviedo looks like healthy, working with our pitching department.

Honestly, besides some depth pieces, the only thing we may really need this offseason is an elite relief pitcher. Whether or not Chapman still has it next year. 

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's what I would bet on happening.....if I was a betting man. 

And with likely no Rule 5 Draft this year, there'll be even less reason to churn the bottom of the 40 man. Should be a snooze fest this year. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Problem is, where are you going to get those guys? I think you'd have to go to the trade market for a 1 & 3.  I think you can get a good depth option starting pitcher or mid rotation guy in FA.  I'd be pretty happy seeing if Sonny Gray wanted to resign and roll out

Crochett/Gray/Tolle/Suarez/Bennett next year.  And we will also have option such as Bello/Crawford/Houck/Oviedo+ not that I'd put a ton of stock into those 4, but I bet one of them emerges as an important contributor in 2027.  And seeing what the pitching staff has done this year.....I'd be very very very curious to see what someone like Oviedo looks like healthy, working with our pitching department.

Honestly, besides some depth pieces, the only thing we may really need this offseason is an elite relief pitcher. Whether or not Chapman still has it next year. 

Duran is not bringing back anything of significant value, but I think we trade him. Maybe he builds value over the next few weeks.

We have a bunch of middle infielders, but none have great trade value, except the one we need to keep- Arias.

We could trade a pitcher, but we'd then have to sign 1-2 to replace him.

Gonzales and Primera are probably our best values, but do we really want to lower our farm value further?

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran is not bringing back anything of significant value, but I think we trade him. Maybe he builds value over the next few weeks.

We have a bunch of middle infielders, but none have great trade value, except the one we need to keep- Arias.

We could trade a pitcher, but we'd then have to sign 1-2 to replace him.

Gonzales and Primera are probably our best values, but do we really want to lower our farm value further?

That's the thing though, the free agent market is not looking very good next year.  Sure there's always a few decent names but if you want to add one it's increasingly year after year looking like you need to trade for the guys you want.  And the guys we want are going to cost us Tolle/Anthony/Rafaela type of players. 

A 1-1 deal like the Early for Mead are what we are going to need to bring in high end talent, because it just doesn't exist in the minors for us....UNLESS we are willing to part with Arias. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's the thing though, the free agent market is not looking very good next year.  Sure there's always a few decent names but if you want to add one it's increasingly year after year looking like you need to trade for the guys you want.  And the guys we want are going to cost us Tolle/Anthony/Rafaela type of players. 

A 1-1 deal like the Early for Mead are what we are going to need to bring in high end talent, because it just doesn't exist in the minors for us....UNLESS we are willing to part with Arias. 

I think the Mead trade might be all the offense needs- that and a healthy Anthony, but we can't count on 100% health. That's a losing plan.

Our bench has carried this team as much as its best players. While .740 to .760 may not look great, it's 100-150 points better than most team's bench.

I'm not sure how we get a big bat without trading a big pitcher or Gonzales plus Primera. I'm not really for that, but give me some names and I might say yes. Do we roll the dice with our current middle infield and trade Arias? (YIKES!) Do we roll with Duran-White-Jollllnes-Campbell-Yoshida in LF/DH (Romy) and trade Anthony? Anybody want Bello to "fix back into a starter?"

I ain't trading Tolle or Bennett. I ain't trading Abreu, Rafaela, Contrers or Durbin. While Sogard is the flavor of the month, he's not a big trade piece, and I'd like to keep him around. Monasterio & Seigler were last month's flavor and arent bring back a big bat, even if packaged together with Duran or White or Campbell.

Most likely we make a minor trade to boost an everyday player need, and replace Gray with Gray or someone else.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Hey- no K from Story!

Good farm day for the Sox.

Woo won 7-1. Antony 2-4 w no Ks. IKF 2-4. Wehunt pitched well.

POR won. Gonzales 2-4 w 2 BB (1.191 AA) Godbout homered and scored 3 runs. Brannon 2-4 (no Ks and at .936) in the 11-2 win.

GRE won 7-1, also. Brown pitched well, but Schaffner went 3-4 to steal the show (up to .755). Jackson homered and went 2-2 w BB & HBP.

[moonslav59]

I've mentioned this before, but not after the Early for Mead trade. Our pitching on the farm has taken a major hit due to promotions/graduations and trades. Several trades were pitchers for pitchers, but the net result seemed to be trading away more than we got back- hopefully more like quantity for better quality. (Bennett & Gray jump to mind, but several RP'ers, too.)

I've always been big on improving pitching with a focus more on quality than quantity. I often said "rebuild the rotation from the top not at the 4-5 slots." That being said, the lack of top pitching prospects might not be as scary as it looks. Here is why: years of control of perhaps enough quality pitchers to keep the need of outside acquisitions rather low. Maybe that can help us use our resources to try and add a big bat, but I think Mead and Anthony might be enough.

5 years: Crochet, Tolle & Bennett 

4 years: Suarez & Bello

2 years: Crawford

1 year: Houck & Oviedo

FAs: Gray & Sandoval

Minors: Burgos, Rivera (non 40: Wehunt, Paez, Holobetz, Ziehl, Phillips, Brown, Futrell, Monegro)

IMO, we need to be 10 deep at SP'ers to have decent depth. This is 8 deep, in theory. Maybe Gray agrees to come back for 1 more year. He may demand 2 years and get it somewhere. Maybe we get by with Wehunt & Paez or Burgos & Rivera. Maybe not. Maybe we want Houck and or Crawford in the pen, so we'd need a SP'er add or two, but we can probably get by without SP'er prospect infusion for a few years. I'm not sure how many promising, far-away pitching prospects we have in the system but here is what we have:

MLB ready:

Rivera

ETA 1-2 years:

Wehunt 25

Paez 22

Holobetz 24

Ziehl 23

Monegro 23

Phillips 22

Brown 22

Other '26 draftees: Devenport, Lanman, Adetuyl, Volmerding

(Futrell 23, Mullins 26, Finley & Mayers 22)

Far-Away (2-3+ years):

Valera (20)

Delzine (18)

LaFavor (18)

Cason (20)

Not too impressive, at all. That's putting it mildly, but Brez has shown he can add pitchers of quality with a good rate of success.

Yes, he gave up Sale, Harrison, Drohan and Priester, but he had previously added Harrison & Priester, too.) His adds have been Gray, Bennett, Suarez, Tolle, Sandoval, Oviedo, Fitts, Newcomb, Criswell, Buehler, DMay (a year too early?)

Some added then subtracted besides Harrison & Priester: Eyanson, Witherspoon, Fajardo, Clarke, Aita

[moonslav59]

Justin Gonzales is raking at AA ball! He may jump the rankings this winter. 4 for 6 (1.260)

Jo GARCIA DID BETTER! 3-5 w 2 HRs a BB and 6 rbi. He's been impressive with the bat this year. .829 with 16 HRs. POR won 14-3.

Woo lost 9-1: IKF 2-4, Anthony 0-2 w BB and Story 1-3

Delzine Kd 7 in 3 IP in SAL's loss. 0 BB, 3H and 2 ER

Morgan went 3.1 of no hit ball in GRE's loss.

 

[moonslav59]

Campbell has two dingers, today. Perhaps, watching Roman and Trevor get called up got the itch burning. He's 3 for 3 with a BB.

Romy is 2-3 with a 2B and BB.

Woo is up 12-10 late.