Boston Red Sox’s 2026 ZiPS Projections: High on Pitchers, Low on Infielders

[Maddie Landis]

For baseball fans, we’re fortunate to have a plethora of projection models to review. There’s Jared Cross’ Steamer, Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (Marcel), Nate Silver’s Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), Brian Cartwright’s Oliver, and Dan Szymborski’s Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS). Each projection system has its own merits — one isn’t necessarily better than another. Are they 100% accurate? No, which is perfectly fine. Predicting the future is tough.

However, they are fun to look at, and reviewing Szymborski’s projections helps the offseason progress a little faster! Just before Christmas, he dropped the Red Sox’s 2026 ZiPS projection. How does the model think the team will fare next year?

Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and the Rest of the Rotation 

Is ZiPS secretly rooting for the Red Sox? It loves Garrett Crochet (don’t we all?), who is projected to generate 5.3 WAR, the second most among pitchers, trailing Tarik Skubal (6.0 WAR). Sonny Gray is currently viewed as the team’s number two starter. Compared to last season’s gap between Crochet and the rest of the rotation, ZiPS is high on Gray, projecting a 112 ERA+ across 154.0 IP. It’s also optimistic about Brayan Bello (104 ERA+). @Alex Mayes and I have talked heavily about Bello’s future on the Talk Sox Podcast. The team’s starting pitching success depends on Brayan Bello, the bridge to the front and back of the rotation. Despite notching three full seasons under his belt, the right-hander's future remains uncertain Has he reached his full ceiling? Can he live up to his true potential? Moreover, what is his true potential? Could he be traded? Between Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Kyle Harrison, the team has more than enough options to fill at the backend of the rotation. Regardless of the depth behind Bello, the rotation’s ceiling and stability hinges on whether he can emerge as a reliable anchor.

The Big, Beautiful Bullpen

Meanwhile, the bullpen looks great, aside from Zack Kelly. Aroldis Chapman is expected to have another successful season (143 ERA+, the team’s second-best mark, and a 2.74 FIP). After a strong season as a full-time reliever, ZiPS is keen on Garrett Whitlock, projecting a 132 ERA+ and 3.05 FIP.

Holes at 3B, 2B, and Catcher

It’s almost 2026. Following the Rafael Devers trade, Alex Bregman’s injury, and his eventual opt-out come the offseason, I feel like a broken record saying the Red Sox need infield depth. Fortunately, the Willson Contreras trade addressed depth at first base. However, for the rest of the infield, help is required. ZiPS views Marcelo Mayer as a third baseman, rather than a second baseman (where he played 57 innings in 2025). Excluding first base, Mayer can play wherever he’s needed in the infield.

Ceddanne Rafaela and Romy González are projected to net the most playing time at second. Free agents Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Kazuma Okamoto are unsigned and could help fill holes at second or third, so Rafaela can man center field on a full-time basis. Bench players like Romy González (projected .266/.307/.426, 102 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) and David Hamilton (projected .228/.298/.359, 83 0PS+, 1.8 WAR) are valuable contributors to the team, but when injuries forced them into full-time roles, their overall performance suffered. The team must add an everyday player at either second or third and deploy the González and Hamilton as depth when needed, rather than expect them to carry the workloads of starters.

The catching group is projected to be around average. ZiPS is pessimistic about Carlos Narváez, projecting him to slash .224/.307/.362 with an 87 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR across 418 plate appearances. It expects Connor Wong’s bat to bounce back, though, slashing .248/.309/.386 with a 93 OPS+ and 0.6 WAR over 351 plate appearances. Maybe this is why the Red Sox have reportedly checked in on free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto?

After an emotionally turbulent season that featured the team’s first playoff appearance since 2021, the Red Sox are looking to build upon their success. ZiPS highlights areas of need in the roster, but overall is optimistic about the team’s future trajectory: 

Quote

“All told, ZiPS thinks the Red Sox ought to eclipse 90 wins and be seriously in the fight for the AL East title. ZiPS also thinks that Boston has less downside than its competition, and an awful lot would have to go wrong for this team to go back to where it was from 2022-24.”

Now, it’s up to Craig Breslow and the front office to fill the roster’s outstanding needs.

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[Hugh2]

Replacement level team is expected to win 48 games, so this puts the Sox at 93 wins.  Projected.  That's a good team....hypothetically. 

Still, I think a good addition in the infield could make that win total sound a lot more reasonable to this fan base. 

Although interesting enough are the projections that are not here.  Between all the trades, claims and DFA's and one hit wonders, and reaching into the depths of the 40 man there will double the amount of players here adding to the team. 

In 2025 the Red Sox had 18 players add negative war totaling about -5.2 WAR.  If that were to hold true, we could project this team at around 87-88 wins, which is one less than last year.  When you figure in subtracting Bregman and other players plus the additions and some steps forward from the youngsters that seems to be about the right range for this team. 

THey're good....but not great. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

In 2025 the Red Sox had 18 players add negative war totaling about -5.2 WAR.

They are including 34 players, so they have to be allocating time to another 8 non-roster players.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

ZIPS projections are a joke.  Use common sense to evaluate your team.  Don't be biased and you can come closer than automated formulas built by people who never played the game.

C - We suck.  Narvaez would need to match his career year to consider ourselves with ONE average catcher and a weak back-up

1B - Contreras is on a 4 year straight line decline even after being moved off catcher to improve his offense.  108 games per year suggests Casas will need to platoon with him because he can't be counted on to provide more than 108 games at his age with his history.  The platoon, however, might end up being a nice surprise if Casas makes a comeback, otherwise, our 1B solution will be among the weakest.

2B - The oft injured Mayer who hasn't really proven defensive capabilities at 2B other than his small sample size in 2025 which was good.  His minor league performance at shortstop suggests he's an average defensive infielder at best.  Campbell had a great track record both defensively and offensively until 2025 and he failed for the first time in his career.  That usually suggests he'll bounce back and be the player who won Minor League Player of the Year in 2024.

SS - Story has been here 4 years and 3 were bad and 1 was good.  He's healthy and he's only 33 this year so he should be able to repeat 2025 which was by far his best year in Boston.  His WAR based on history if he's healthy should be between 2.0 and 4.0.  Boston fans need to pray he doesn't miss much time.

3B - MASSIVE HOLE.

LF - Anthony is the modern day Ted, Yaz or Rice.  Could see an all-star performance from him if he is healthy.

CF - Duran's best defensive position by a long way and the best lead off prospect on the roster.  Fans are harsh on him for no apparent reason.  The guy is valued by all other teams and fans much, much higher than the biased Red Sox fans.  Everyone should love this guy.

RF - Rafaela is the second coming of Betts in right field where the 302 Pesky Pole to the 380 right center field distance is the largest in Fenway and well suited for the best defensive player who happens to be the fastest outfielder too.  

DH - Many options.  On days when righties pitch, Abreu is available but not against LH pitchers.  Since he as poorly as Campbell after April 30th and mostly against RH pitchers you have to wonder why fan support is so great.  He leads the team in errors in the outfield during the period when the league "GAVE" him GGs since he didn't earn them.  Yoshida has been a bust since he arrived.  With his 1.0 WAR per year and his 109 OPS+ his $18Million price tag makes him immoveable without a significant cost.

For me, Casas makes the most sense since Contreras probably is the better defensive 1B but it's close and at his age, Casas should probably take 1/3 of the games to keep Contreras fresh.

How good is this offense?  Right now without a replacement for Bregman, it's close to the worst.

The good news is the bad offense doesn't need to score that many runs.  The pitching is excellent.

1 - Crochet is a Cy Young Candidate

2 - Connelly Early will be the big surprise this year since so many people have no recognition of his greatness.  He will be in Crochet's category in a year or two.

3 - Sonny Gray will be an excellent #3 SP and by matching up with #3s he should have a very winning season.

4 - Payton Tolle has incredible stuff but needs to lock down an off-speed pitch to be dominant.  When he does, this team will have 3 ACE equivalents plus Gray a solid #2 SP.

5 - Bello, Sandoval and eventually Witherspoon.  This is the lone weakness in the pitching staff but if slotted versus other #5 SPs, these guys will give the team a chance to win.

Closer - Chapman is a stud at age 38.  We could use another closer for security.  Whitlock stands as the next best reliever behind Chapman but a true closer would be smart depth.

So ZIPS is pretty far off with estimates other than guys like Crochet.  This team must get a 3B before we can rank them versus NY, TOR, BAL and TB.  As of today, they are even with TB in the cellar even with the great pitching because Cora isn't smart enough to position the outfield to maximize defense or set up a batting order that makes sense.