Two Starting Pitching Options Red Sox Can Pair With Sonny Gray To Form An Elite Rotation

[Jack Lindsay]

The Boston Red Sox made an early offseason splash by acquiring Sonny Gray, whom they'll pay just $21 million in 2026 thanks to the St. Louis Cardinals picking up half of his remaining salary. Soon after the trade, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reported that Boston had shifted its attention to an impact middle-of-the-order bat.

That approach is reasonable, but Gray is not the number two starter many fans envisioned when the offseason began. Hopes of pairing Garrett Crochet with Joe Ryan created dreams of one of the most dominant one-two punches in the sport.

Gray instead profiles as an upper-tier number three starter. That still carries value, but it does not justify ignoring additional upgrades. As our own @Maddie Landis illustrated, Gray’s velocity continues to dip and he has become increasingly reliant on his breaking pitches to miss bats. His sweeper was dominant last season with the highest strikeout rate among all qualified sweepers. Along with the near one run gap between his SIERA and ERA, there is reason to believe he can regain his 2023 form, a season where he finished second in American League Cy Young voting. Even so, he is not enough to stabilize the rotation on his own.

FanGraphs’ Roster Resource currently projects Patrick Sandoval, who has not pitched in a year and a half due to a strained left elbow, as the fifth starter. Kutter Crawford is slotted fourth after also missing 2025. The Red Sox can slow-play their returns, but relying on both early in the season does not create confidence. Meanwhile, the rival Toronto Blue Jays recently signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, 210 million dollar contract and widened the gap.

If Boston intends to spend heavily on a bat, there are still cost-efficient pitching upgrades available that would keep the club under the third luxury tax threshold.

1. Freddy Peralta
Reporting from MLBTradeRumors.com and The Athletic suggests that the Brewers may be concerned about their long-term payroll. Milwaukee has frequently moved top pitchers one year before free agency — see Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams — and could do the same with Peralta.

Peralta has one year left before free agency and is owed only eight million dollars in 2026. This gives the Red Sox significant flexibility to add both a bat and bullpen help. He finished fifth in National League Cy Young voting this past season and has never posted a strikeout rate below 27.1 percent. For a Boston team that was only slightly above league average at striking out opponents, Peralta’s three straight seasons with 200 or more strikeouts would raise the rotation’s ceiling considerably.

There are signs of some good luck in his most recent performance. His strand rate of 85.5 percent was well above his career norms, and his .243 batting average on balls in play was below the league average of .291. Some regression is expected, but even with that in mind, Peralta is easily worth his contract and would immediately slot in as the number two starter in Boston.

2. Merrill Kelly
If the Red Sox want a cost-effective free agent starter, Merrill Kelly is an ideal option who can serve as a strong fourth starter while performing like an above-average number three. Most projections, including DiamondCentric’s, estimate his price at about 18 million dollars per year. year during that stretch.

Since 2022, Kelly’s highest ERA is 4.03, and his SIERA has ranged from 3.95 to 4.12 in each season. He has delivered an fWAR of either 3.1 or 3.2 in every full season. His changeup is one of the best in the league with a .147 isolated slugging allowed, a 74 wRC+ against, and 3.5 inches of extra movement compared to similar pitchers.

Kelly may cost about what Walker Buehler received, but he offers a much higher floor and is not a developmental project. Whoever signs him can reasonably expect an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 over about 160 innings. With Boston sitting about 20 million dollars below the first luxury tax threshold, Kelly fits perfectly as a finishing piece for the rotation.

The Red Sox should prioritize adding a bat, but their current rotation is not strong enough to compete with Toronto or New York. They have depth options for the fifth spot that include Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins, and Tanner Houck once he returns. Depth is valuable once injuries occur, but elite teams win with top-tier pitching, not only with back-end coverage.

Peralta offers the higher-impact solution and Kelly provides dependable stability. Boston currently projects for the second-highest starting pitcher WAR behind the Dodgers, but projections only matter so much.

If the Red Sox remain quiet on the pitching front, they will fall behind quickly. One more meaningful addition could secure their place among the league’s best.

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[JoeBrady]

If the Red Sox remain quiet on the pitching front, they will fall behind quickly. 

How will we quickly fall behind?  Wouldn't that require other teams to quickly pass us?  Which teams are you projecting to add a lot of pitching?

[notin]

31 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If the Red Sox remain quiet on the pitching front, they will fall behind quickly. 

How will we quickly fall behind?  Wouldn't that require other teams to quickly pass us?  Which teams are you projecting to add a lot of pitching?

I assume they mean fall behind NY and Toronto.  
 

But yes - this is a premature conclusion.  No one knows what any of the lineups for these 3 teams will look like, let alone the rotations...

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I assume they mean fall behind NY and Toronto.  
 

But yes - this is a premature conclusion.  No one knows what any of the lineups for these 3 teams will look like, let alone the rotations...

It feels like something I'd have written in HS because I needed to write 500 words.  If they mean strictly pitching, I doubt that TO is adding anything past Cease, and I'm guessing that the NYY are reasonably happy with their rotation.  They're unlikely to pass us.  If they are talking about overall talent, then we don't necessarily need another pitcher to keep them from passing us.