Why the Red Sox Should Insulate Themselves Against Potential Regression from Aroldis Chapman

[Brandon Glick]

Aroldis Chapman is a historically good relief pitcher who delivered a historically good campaign in 2025, even relative to his own standards. So, even if he weren't a 37-year-old reliant on his four-seam fastball, there'd be reason to worry about potential regression for the Boston Red Sox's closer, especially considering he had recorded a 3.68 ERA in the three years prior to his legendary maiden campaign in Beantown.

He was so good this past season that the front office saw it fit to give him an extension before the year even came to an end. It's a one-year deal that offers a slight raise over his $10 million salary in 2025, and it also comes with a $13 million vesting option if he throws enough innings in 2026. It's hardly a long-term commitment, but it is one that suggests the front office is content to continue rolling Chapman out there in the ninth.

And, let's acknowledge something here: Nothing in Chapman's body of work in Boston necessarily suggests a drop-off is imminent. His expected ERA (2.09) was nearly a full run worse than his actual mark (1.17) and still ranked in the 100th percentile across the league. His fastball velocity, despite being a few ticks down from its peak, still averaged nearly 99 mph as opposing batters hit just .159 against it; his sinker was even better, producing a .115 batting average against while brushing up against triple digits on the radar gun. Tie it all together with elite chase (34.6%) and whiff rates (35.8%), and you have the profile of one of the best relievers in baseball.

I'm not coming armed with any information to suggest that Red Sox fans should expect Chapman to revert back to his 2022-24 form. Instead, I'm merely here to remind everyone that said version of Chapman existed, and that, prior to 2025, it had been five seasons since the fireballing southpaw displayed anywhere close to this level of dominance. Set to turn 38 before Opening Day in 2026, the franchise can hope to rely on their closer once again, but planning on it may be more of a fool's errand.

For some recent examples, the last two relievers to finish top-five in Cy Young voting (a feat Chapman should accomplish this year) were Emmanuel Clase (2024) and Zack Britton (2016). Clase followed up his historically dominant 2024 campaign with a 3.23 ERA in 47 1/3 innings this season (and may be permanently banned from the league for gambling); Britton's ERA jumped from 0.54 to 2.89 and he missed time with forearm and lower body issues. Now, Chapman hopefully won't caught in some illegal pitch-throwing scheme, but those two relievers were a decade younger than the Red Sox's closer at the times of their peak. Even though Clase's 2025 season (pre-suspension) and Britton's 2017 season were solid enough, they hardly approximated the dominance they showed just a year prior.

Luckily, Chapman has always been better in the ninth inning — his career ERA in the final frame (2.33) is significantly lower than his work in the eighth (2.82) or seventh innings (4.56) — and barring injury, there isn't much need to acquire another closer. That's especially true since breakout set-up man Garrett Whitlock remains under contract for 2026, as is the case for Justin Slaten, who secured three saves in 2025 and has closing experience in the minor leagues. If track record is something you fancy (and you can look past significant struggles in the recent past), Jordan Hicks has 35 saves on his major league résumé. He's far less of a sure thing than Chapman, but he's the only one in the bullpen (and one of few arms in the league) who can approximate the lefty's velocity.

Instead, the team needs to focus on bringing in a couple of high-leverage relief arms who can help bridge the gap to Chapman, or, if needed, fill in should injury arise. That is definitively not the class of reliever that players like Edwin Diaz or even Devin Williams fit in, but someone like Brad Keller (who just experienced a career resurgence in Chicago under Craig Breslow's old bosses) or Raisel Iglesias (who had a 1.25 ERA from mid-June until the end of the season) could insulate the late-inning group and help ensure Whitlock doesn't have to pitch 70+ innings again.

If the budget is really tight, Gregory Soto brings big velocity from the left side like Chapman, and Emilio Pagán just locked down 32 saves for a playoff team. Those are older veterans with bigger flaws in their game than the elite relievers on the high-end side of the market, but the same was true for Chapman last year, and look how that worked out. It's not necessarily advisable to build your bullpen with a cache of arms with heavily mileage seeking to reclaim the glory days, but the Red Sox don't need a bullpen as good as the Padres or the Brewers. The rotation, with one more significant addition, is strong enough to carry the team for stretches, and the offense could be really good if Roman Anthony is healthy for a full season.

This is simply about hedging your bets. Boston ranked second in the league in bullpen ERA (3.41) in 2025 and backed that up with top-five finishes in xERA (3.76, fifth) and FIP (3.69, fourth). Chapman did a lot of that heavy lifting — he and Whitlock combined for more than 70% of the team's reliever fWAR this past season — and at his age and with his recent, pre-2025 track record, banking on a repeat performance could prove perilous, even if the advanced metrics wholeheartedly support an encore.

Insofar as your focus extends only to the 2026 season, the Red Sox should be fine in the backend of their bullpen thanks to the presence of Chapman. But, if doubt lingers in your mind about a 38-year-old who throws 100 miles per hour, perhaps you too think the team should be wary about entrusting so much of their success in one man.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

It's a very sound strategy to have a right-handed closer to go with Chapman.  Depth and location in the opponent's line-up beginning in the 8th inning makes this a very wise move.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

It's a very sound strategy to have a right-handed closer to go with Chapman.  Depth and location in the opponent's line-up beginning in the 8th inning makes this a very wise move.

Isn't that Whitlock?  He was almost unhittable in the 2nd half.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Isn't that Whitlock?  He was almost unhittable in the 2nd half.

Whitlock was really great. Many people were hopeful it would be Slaten, but Whitlock really stepped up last season. 

[moonslav59]

Maybe Slaten & Whitlock will both have great 2026 seasons.

[Larry Cook]

Maybe we bring back kopech and see if there is anything there that can help us 

[notin]

Once Cleveland decides it’s time for a white flag, they have several good relief pitchers, at least one of whom (Gaddis? Cade Smith?) might be available for the blocked Jhostnyxon Garcia…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe we bring back kopech and see if there is anything there that can help us 

Kopech reminds me a lot of Nolan Ryan.  Not sure if it’s the fastball or that each of them has the body of a 78 year-old man…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Kopech reminds me a lot of Nolan Ryan.  Not sure if it’s the fastball or that each of them has the body of a 79 year old man…

Kopech may be healthier than Mayer. IDK. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kopech may be healthier than Mayer. IDK. 

All the more reason not to get him.  An at bat where Mayer steps up against Kopech might be the closest thing to Real Life Thunderdome…

[Larry Cook]

Brad Keller is another option! Not sure he fits the bres-slow and Bailey profile, but he gets batters out!!  

[JoeBrady]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

Once Cleveland decides it’s time for a white flag, they have several good relief pitchers, at least one of whom (Gaddis? Cade Smith?) might be available for the blocked Jhostnyxon Garcia…

I could be talked into Smith for Garcia, and I don't think Cleveland would be offended.  Not quite impeccable, but a 39/2 K/W in his final two months.  He could easily take over in 2027, while making solid contributions in 2026.  I'm okay with the rest of the guys, but having a 3rd ace to add to Chapman and Whitlock would be really good.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Brad Keller is another option! Not sure he fits the bres-slow and Bailey profile, but he gets batters out!!  

Brez signed Brad, August last year, then did not keep him.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 11/10/2025 at 12:56 PM, JoeBrady said:

Isn't that Whitlock?  He was almost unhittable in the 2nd half.

Maybe.  For me, his best skill dates back a few years but I loved when he came in to stop a rally when the starter finally struggled in the game.  He left a lot of runner on base and that's a great way to keep a lead and win the game.

[Malcolm White]

The Hicks decision's gonna be interesting.  I'd rather spend his $12M on a more reliable guy, but not at the cost of Hicks's $12 PLUS another $12M.

Chapman-Whit-Slaten-Weissert is good, but I think they need a solid lefty who fits in there. Wilson did a great job, mostly. Drew Pomerantz would be my choice.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Malcolm White said:

The Hicks decision's gonna be interesting.  I'd rather spend his $12M on a more reliable guy, but not at the cost of Hicks's $12 PLUS another $12M.

Chapman-Whit-Slaten-Weissert is good, but I think they need a solid lefty who fits in there. Wilson did a great job, mostly. Drew Pomerantz would be my choice.

Hicks is guaranteed $12+12. Any "decision" made will involve another team wanting to trade for him.

[drewski6]

On 11/10/2025 at 5:20 PM, JoeBrady said:

I could be talked into Smith for Garcia, and I don't think Cleveland would be offended.  Not quite impeccable, but a 39/2 K/W in his final two months.  He could easily take over in 2027, while making solid contributions in 2026.  I'm okay with the rest of the guys, but having a 3rd ace to add to Chapman and Whitlock would be really good.

Not Garcia (wanna keep the brothers), but Im interested in Cade and he would prob close starting in 2027.  Generally, you want a "core-four" with one being a lefty.  So he'd bump Slaten out of the "core-four" because it would be Chap, Whit, Cade, and a lefty. Which Im fine with. Understood have more pressing holes, but I think it improves , adds depth, and sets us up well beyond next year.