Article: Boston Red Sox Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Nathaniel Lowe

[Alex Mayes]

1B Nathaniel Lowe

Age on Opening Day 2026: 30

Service Time: 4.145

2023 Salary: $4.05M

2024 Salary: $7.5M

2025 Salary: $10.3M

2026 Salary (Projection): $13.5M

Background

Nathaniel Lowe was acquired as a free agent in August of 2025 after he was placed on waivers by the Washington Nationals. The belief was that he would be the go-to first baseman for the Boston Red Sox after they spent the bulk of the season revolving multiple players through the position in the wake of Triston Casas' injury. He’s played for four teams since his debut in 2019 and was a World Series champion with the Texas Rangers in 2023. He won a Gold Glove at first base in 2023 with the Rangers and the 2022 AL Silver Slugger Award for first baseman. He brought the pedigree of these awards to the clubhouse in Boston after his signing, but little else after a hot start.

2025 Season

Lowe had a down season in 2025, and failed to live up to the expectations of a front office that was hoping to rescue him from the Nationals. He started off hot after landing in Boston, then spent time on the paternity list at the end of August. Unfortunately, he really failed to get going after that. His Baseball Savant page is ice blue, minus two categories. He ranked in the 76th percentile of chase percentage (24%) and in the 72nd percentile in walk rate (10.2%). He didn’t provide the spark the team had hoped he would, but he did help to settle first base down the stretch.

2025 Stats: 153 G, 609 PA, .228/.307/.381, .689 OPS, 23 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 10.2% BB%, 26.1% K%

Red Sox Depth at First Base

MLB: Triston Casas, Nathaniel Lowe, Romy Gonzalez

AAA: Nathan Hickey

Why the Red Sox Should Offer Him a Contract

The pedigree is still there for Lowe. He’s been a solid contributor on both sides of the ball as recently as 2024. First base is still a giant question mark moving forward for the team as well. Triston Casas is dangerously flirting with the ‘injury-prone’ label and although Romy Gonzalez played well at the position, he’s more suited as a super-utility infielder who gets spot starts against left-handed pitching. Even with a down offensive season, Lowe’s 18 home runs had him tied for third-most on the team with Alex Bregman. As he settles in throughout the offseason and gets to work with the Red Sox’s coaching staff throughout spring training, he’s bound to unlock more power and start taking better aim at the unique dimensions of Fenway Park.

Why the Red Sox Should Not Offer Him a Contract

Admittedly, $13.5 million dollars is a ton of money for a potential backup first baseman. Even if you take Casas out of the equation, the Red Sox match up well with free agent Pete Alonso, who would command the bulk of starts at the position. There are trades that will be made that could also land the Red Sox an upper-echelon first baseman as well. Lowe’s offensive (and defensive, if we’re being honest) downturn was unexpected, and he seemed to struggle to find his footing all season. Some attempted to blame playing for the lowly Washington Nationals for his struggles, but once he came to Boston and had something to actually play for, things didn’t really get much better for Lowe. Those millions could be invested elsewhere.

Projection

Expect the Red Sox to make Lowe an offer, but it will be a lowball number that's not all too close to his projected salary. His play last season hurt his ability to argue that he had an impact on the team and that will be used against him. Look for Lowe to balk at the number and head to an arbitration hearing to plead his case. He doesn’t have much of a leg to stand on, but he will argue that he’s worth more than whatever number the Red Sox throw his way. If an addition like Alonso or someone else is brought in though, the Sox will likely move on from Lowe in some fashion.

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[moonslav59]

I wouldn't pay $10-11M, so I'm not offering him an arb.

I could see us signing him to less, later on, but I see about 6 1Bmen I'd sign before him.

[mvp 78]

If anyone is non-tendered it's Lowe. I think they try to offer him a 1/5M deal max. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If anyone is non-tendered it's Lowe. I think they try to offer him a 1/5M deal max. 

Give him a 2nd year option with a $1M buyout, so the AAV is $3M.

(Assuming we add no better 1Bman.)

If we go large at 3B or 2B, SP2 and DH, I'd be okay with Lowe/Romy and the Casas prayer at 1B.

[JoeBrady]

I'd guess that the chances of us offering him arb is about -0-.  Over the past three years, he's averaged 17 HRs with a .252, he's a lefty, slow and doesn't provide a lot of defense.  He gone.

[notin]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If anyone is non-tendered it's Lowe. I think they try to offer him a 1/5M deal max. 

Might as well just buy him a Thank You card and send him on his way….

[notin]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd guess that the chances of us offering him arb is about -0-.  Over the past three years, he's averaged 17 HRs with a .252, he's a lefty, slow and doesn't provide a lot of defense.  He gone.

2025 and (especially) 2022 were rough years for Lowe defensively, but his metrics usually run slightly above average.  And he did win a Gold Glove in 2023…

[moonslav59]

Lowe was a useful addition that cost us next to nothing but cash.

Dom Smith was another one, but we've had so many failures on these "temporary solutions" at 1B and 2B, that it feels to me that we need to make a bold move to try and fix one of the two positions, once and for all.

No, Mayer should not be viewed as a "once and for all" solution. He may end up being one, but we have an opening a 3B, too, so we could still add a legit 2Bman and not block Mayer.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Might as well just buy him a Thank You card and send him on his way….

You think he gets more elsewhere? 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

You think he gets more elsewhere? 

In one sense, we are a team in great need at 1B and spend more than about 3/5 of other teams, but this is one season where many 1B options are out there, and many are better than Lowe.

If I knew more about the Casas recovery, I might say he is a better option than Lowe.

I might also view Romy/Campbell as an equal option, but both are RHBs.

[notin]

On 10/31/2025 at 9:09 AM, mvp 78 said:

You think he gets more elsewhere? 

Absolutely.  But more important is, I bet he and his agent also think so…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Absolutely.  But more important is, I bet he and his agent also think so…

But, if he does not get a better offer, he may very well end up back here.

He's not all that bad vs RHPs, and with Romy as his platoon partner, we could be okay at 1B with Lowe-Romy, but I'm dead set against the idea of not having major power at 1B, unless we do two things: add 2 major power bats at 1B, 2B or DH.