Boston Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year (2025)

[Billy Mock]

While the Boston Red Sox's season just ended, the minor league season has been completed for quite some time. As such, it's time to recognize the top players across the Red Sox organization. Within the Minor Leagues, the Red Sox had a number of excellent performers that solidified themselves as legitimate prospects within their system. Among those top performers, a few pitchers such as Connelly Early, Brandon Clarke, and Yhoiker Fajardo, among others, emerged as top pitching prospects. However, it was Payton Tolle who undoubtedly had the best season among any Red Sox minor league pitcher as he made his MLB debut in the same season in which he made his MiLB debut. 

Tolle didn't spend a whole lot of time at any level of the minors this year, as he dominated every step of the way. A second-round draft pick out of Texas Christian a year ago, Tolle made made his professional debut on April 8 with High-A Greenville, where his season ironically got off to a poor start due to a performance in which he gave up six runs on six hits in just 1 2/3 innings. Fortunately for the big lefty, he turned things around rather quickly, as he made nine more starts for Greenville prior to his promotion to Double-A Portland. High-A would be where he spent most of his time in the minors, delivering 49 2/3 innings across 10 starts and 11 total appearances. He finished the level with a 38.3% strikeout rate, which ranked third among all High-A pitchers with at least 40 innings in 2025, while his 31.6% strikeout minus walk rate ranked the highest.

Tolle went on to dominate at Double-A Portland where he really started to gain the attention of mainstream baseball media. He made only six appearances at the level, but didn't give up more than one earned run in any game. In 27 total innings, Tolle posted a 1.67 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 0.74 WHIP, .143 batting average against, and a 30.3% strikeout minus walk rate. Each mark ranked within the top three among all Red Sox pitchers with at least 20 innings in Double-A this year. His strikeout minus walk rate ranked fifth among all Double-A pitchers with at least 20 innings. 

Tolle was then promoted to Triple-A Worcester, where he made his first start on August 10. His stint at Triple-A would be even shorter than his Double-A stint, as he went on to make just two more starts prior to getting the call to the big leagues. In his three starts for the WooSox, he gave up six earned runs across 15 innings, good for a 3.60 ERA along with a 3.36 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, and a .193 batting average against. He also only issued two walks behind a 70% strike rate, which only confirmed his control and command of the strike zone was major-league-ready. In fact, he didn't yield a walk rate over 7.1% at any of his three stops in the minors. Tolle's command was likely the factor that dictated how fast he moved through the system, given that he already had MLB-ready stuff. With the positive returns, there was no reason not to give him a shot in The Show after the big league team designated Walker Buehler for assignment, opening up a spot in the rotation for Tolle.

Tolle finished the campaign with 91 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.04 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, .201 batting average against, and a 30.2 strikeout minus walk rate. Among the 48 Red Sox Minor league pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Tolle held the best WHIP, strikeout rate, and strikeout minus walk rate, while his FIP ranked fourth overall.

Tolle's stellar 2025 season continued into his MLB debut, as he dueled with Paul Skenes of the Pirates on August 29 at Fenway Park, delivering 5 1/3 innings while allowing two earned runs and notching eight strikeouts. He made two more starts before transitioning to the bullpen. His final MLB stat line wasn't pretty, as he finished with a 6.06 ERA across 16 1/3 innings, but he certainly showed flashes of what we can expect from him at the big league level moving forward.

View full article

[moonslav59]

I like to look at OPS Against, but I admit it has not been a great predictor of MLB success. IP matter, too. Here is a list I find important;

OPS Against (IP) ERA

.480 Clarke (38) 4.03 A-/A+ (60K:27 BB)

.537 E Rivera (87) 2.48 A+/AA (108:46)

.568 Fajardo (72) 2.25 FCL/A- (83:27)

.575 Mullins (102) 2.21 A+/AA (123:51)

.592 Tolle (92) 3.04 A+/AA/AAA (MLB not included) 133:23

.596 Early (100) 2.60 AA/AAA (MLB not included) 132:40

.623 Rogers (105) 3.09/A+/AA (129:57)

.627 Aita (115) 3.98 A-/A+ (99:30)

.657 Holobetz (101) 3.04 A+/AA (89:15 best ratio on this list)

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I like to look at OPS Against, but I admit it has not been a great predictor of MLB success. IP matter, too. Here is a list I find important;

OPS Against (IP) ERA

.480 Clarke (38) 4.03 A-/A+ (60K:27 BB)

.537 E Rivera (87) 2.48 A+/AA (108:46)

.568 Fajardo (72) 2.25 FCL/A- (83:27)

.575 Mullins (102) 2.21 A+/AA (123:51)

.592 Tolle (92) 3.04 A+/AA/AAA (MLB not included) 133:23

.596 Early (100) 2.60 AA/AAA (MLB not included) 132:40

.623 Rogers (105) 3.09/A+/AA (129:57)

.627 Aita (115) 3.98 A-/A+ (99:30)

.657 Holobetz (101) 3.04 A+/AA (89:15 best ratio on this list)

Some of the best predictors of future mlb success are K and BB rates, I think a lot of people look at wOBA wRC+ (for hitters) which are stats I’m starting to come around on.

i think we also have to consider the age of a player.  If one player puts up marginally better stats than another at high A but is 23 years old while the other is 19.  Who really had a more impressive season? One might say the 19 year old

[Hugh2]

Top K/BB players with level/age

John Holobotz  A+/AA - 23

Payton Tolle  AA/AAA/Boston - 22

Lead at the top, then it’s some unimpressive names until you get to Uberstine/Aita/Early/Fajardo

In their very small sample sizes who didn’t qualify (I used 40 IP) well regarded prospects Juan Valera and Sadbiel Dezline had good KK/BB numbers as well.

Holobotz at the top is interesting because his K numbers are more average, he just doesn’t walk anyone.  The Preister deal keeps giving

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Top K/BB players with level/age

John Holobotz  A+/AA - 23

Payton Tolle  AA/AAA/Boston - 22

Lead at the top, then it’s some unimpressive names until you get to Uberstine/Aita/Early/Fajardo

In their very small sample sizes who didn’t qualify (I used 40 IP) well regarded prospects Juan Valera and Sadbiel Dezline had good KK/BB numbers as well.

Holobotz at the top is interesting because his K numbers are more average, he just doesn’t walk anyone.  The Preister deal keeps giving

Great stuff, Hugh, and you are right about K:BB rates. I mentioned Holobetz as "the prize" of the Priester trade, while many were all over YRod as being a poor return.

The age factor is very significant, too, as some of the youngest players are putting up pretty good numbers against much older batters.

I lowered the IP to 30 and came up with these K/BBs:

8.2 Carlson A+ 24

6.1 Monegro AA 22

5.9 Holobetz A+/AA 23

5.9 Van Belle AAA

5.8 Tolle A+/AA/AAA (then MLB) 22

5.7 Moran (Rehabed)

5.3 Sansone A-/A+/AA 26 (IL)

5.1 McShane A-/A+ 22

Selected:

3.7 Drohan 26

3.3 Early 23 & Uberstine 26

3.1 Fajardo 19

2.9 Futrell

2.6 Wehunt, 2.5 Travieso, 2.4 Mullins,  2.2 Clarke

Valera at 4.6 but under 30 IP.

2024-2025

Selected w 50+ IP:

9.1 Paez

6.2 Sansone

4.8 Ingrassia

3.9 Monegro

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Great stuff, Hugh, and you are right about K:BB rates. I mentioned Holobetz as "the prize" of the Priester trade, while many were all over YRod as being a poor return.

The age factor is very significant, too, as some of the youngest players are putting up pretty good numbers against much older batters.

I lowered the IP to 30 and came up with these K/BBs:

8.2 Carlson A+ 24

6.1 Monegro AA 22

5.9 Holobetz A+/AA 23

5.9 Van Belle AAA

5.8 Tolle A+/AA/AAA (then MLB) 22

5.7 Moran (Rehabed)

5.3 Sansone A-/A+/AA 26 (IL)

5.1 McShane A-/A+ 22

Selected:

3.7 Drohan 26

3.3 Early 23 & Uberstine 26

3.1 Fajardo 19

2.9 Futrell

2.6 Wehunt, 2.5 Travieso, 2.4 Mullins,  2.2 Clarke

Valera at 4.6 but under 30 IP.

2024-2025

Selected w 50+ IP:

9.1 Paez

6.2 Sansone

4.8 Ingrassia

3.9 Monegro

 

 

 

Pitching is also funny too, because one of those guys at the bottom could take a big jump forward if their K/BB ratio is low because they walk a lot of guys driving that number down.  Guys like.....Clarke

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Pitching is also funny too, because one of those guys at the bottom could take a big jump forward if their K/BB ratio is low because they walk a lot of guys driving that number down.  Guys like.....Clarke

Exactly, and then you get surprise guys who seem to do better in the bigs than they did in the minors. While Houck was pretty highly ranked on the sox prospect list, I don't think people saw him as better than others before and after him in the system. Mata and Groome were ranked above him. In 2020, T Ward and Song were above him.

How about Crawford and Dobbins? Crawford made it to #16 in 2022, then fell to #23. He had more than 8 pitchers ahead of him, including Brandon Walter who once posted a 68-3 K:BB ratio in AA! Kutter's career minor league ratio was 3.5:1. Dobbins was ranked 11th and 12th, recently. He had 4 pitchers ahead of him, including Fitts and Sandlin. Dobbins posted a 176:65 K:BB in 126 IP in '24 (AA/AAA) His career K:BB was 3.0. Neither looked like great K:BB pitchers. Not bad, but not great.

Maybe I'm too high on Holobetz and Fajardo. Maybe I just really want those trades to work out to further prove Brez knows what he's doing, even when it looks like maybe he doesn't. Maybe I'm just a homer.