Article: To Win in New York, the Red Sox Need to Take Advantage of One Yankees Weakness

[Nick John]

The Red Sox are preparing to face the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs tonight, and if they want to win, they’ll need to find a way to handle the juggernaut of an offense their opponents have. Led by MVP candidate Aaron Judge, the Yankees displayed a lot of power this season, as they hit a combined 274 home runs, with Judge leading the way with 53. The Yankees have seven players on their roster that had 20 or more home runs.

Offensively, there is no doubt the team is deep, hitting a combined .251/.332/.455 with a team OPS of .787. Along with the 274 home runs, the team also managed to drive in 820 runs and had 255 doubles. A lineup like this will be tough to slow down, but fortunately for the Red Sox, there are some key traits they can take advantage of: The Yankees strike out a lot, and most of the current lineup struggles against high velocity.

While the Red Sox strike out their own fair share of the time, this Yankees roster has a tendency to strike out even more. They currently have three players who strike out greater than 33% of the time in Austin Slater, Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan McMahon. After that, there are five players who strike out at a rate higher than 25% in Jazz Chisholm Jr., Amed Rosario, Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells, and Anthony Volpe. Even Aaron Judge strikes out at a 23.6% rate, tied with Trent Grisham, while the only players on the active roster with a strikeout rate below 20% are Ben Rice, Jose Caballero, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger.

With a pitcher like Garrett Crochet, who led the American League with 255 strikeouts, going in Game 1, there’s a good chance he could mow through a feast-or-famine order. That's especially true when you look at how the Yankees handle velocity. Crochet is known for throwing fast, averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball this season while being able to dial it up above 98 mph.

Now, when you look at how the Yankees handled pitches that were at least 95 mph on the season, you start to like the Red Sox's chances. Unsurprisingly, the offense is led by Judge and Stanton in this situation, where the dynamic duo hit .286 with nine home runs and .333 with seven home runs, respectively. However, both also strike out at a high rate, Judge up to 35.2% against 95 mph or faster and Stanton striking out at a 46.9% rate.

After those two, the only major threats against velocity at 95 mph or faster are Goldschmidt, Rice and Rosario as the three have hit .328, .296, and .313 respectively. The real positive is that key contributors like Grisham, Chisholm, Wells, and Volpe all struggle, as they strikeout at a 25% or higher rate, the highest among the quartet being Volpe’s 32.6% strikeout rate.

And while there is no guarantee that you can hold the entire team down offensively, the fact is that you could very well go from Crochet to Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman in Game 1, all of whom can exploit this weakness. Add to it that Game 2 starter Brayan Bello can also throw 95 mph, and the Yankees will need to adjust to handling velocity quickly, otherwise the series could very easily sway in Boston’s favor from a pitching standpoint.

This isn't a hidden weakness or anything the Yankees won't be prepared for; you can be certain the coaching staff has prepped the lineup to prioritize contact against the Red Sox. If you're looking for reasons for optimism though, there's a good chance the Red Sox could simply blow their rivals away in the Wild Card series.

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[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mixing two threads here: looking at Brock's chart, Judge, Stanton and Jazz have each struck out in over 70% of their ABs vs. Crochet this season. 

The Sox are notorious whiffers, too, leading the majors in Ks with runners in scoring position. Duran, one of Boston's best batters with guys on base, is 0-for-10 with 5 strikeouts vs. Fried.

But because Fried is more of a pitch to contact expert, the edge may go to the Red Sox... unless the Yankees' colander defense comes through.

Last note: Rafaela gets a lot of grief on the forum for swinging at and missing a million pitches a night, but did you know FIVE Yankees fanned more than Ceddanne this season? Some of them are even considered good...

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mixing two threads here: looking at Brock's chart, Judge, Stanton and Jazz have each struck out in over 70% of their ABs vs. Crochet this season. 

The Sox are notorious whiffers, too, leading the majors in Ks with runners in scoring position. Duran, one of Boston's best batters with guys on base, is 0-for-10 with 5 strikeouts vs. Fried.

But because Fried is more of a pitch to contact expert, the edge may go to the Red Sox... unless the Yankees' colander defense comes through.

Last note: Rafaela gets a lot of grief on the forum for swinging at and missing a million pitches a night, but did you know FIVE Yankees fanned more than Ceddanne this season? Some of them are even considered good...

Rafaela: 70.6 strike%, 58.9 pitches swung at%, 48.9 1st pitch swing% 

Leads BOS and NYY for all batters above 50 PA. He's just up there swinging. He's not a high k rate guy, he's a high volume swing guy, which causes him to chase pitches outside the zone more than almost everyone else in baseball (2nd percentile). Since he chases bad pitches, he's induces into a lot of weak contact. If he gets his pitch, it can go a long way. 

 

[mvp 78]

The players that chase more than Rafaela: 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The players that chase more than Rafaela: 

It's interesting that the two best defensive CF 's IN MLB are 6th and 7th in chase rate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

It's interesting that the two best defensive CF 's IN MLB are 6th and 7th in chase rate.

Can't help it, hardwired from chasing down gappers in the pasture.